The wheat market isn’t typically an exciting one to watch, but Grain Fox chief market analyst Ranulph Glanville said excitement has been building over the past six to eight weeks as more companies have started to rally around the bulls.
But is wheat really in a fundamentally better position than corn?
“The short answer is I think yes,” Glanville said, as ending stocks from major exporting countries combined with production forecasts for this year suggest supplies are slightly tighter.
“It looks like that dynamic is slowing down, especially for some of Russia’s crops that have been the drivers of exports to global markets in recent years,” he said, adding that Russian wheat exports would be around 10 million tonnes lower than the market had expected three or four months ago.
How will that filter down to North American markets? Granville summarises the three futures markets – Minneapolis, Chicago and Kansas City – and explains how their fundamentals differ and who or what is driving price movements. Weather in the US and western Canada can have a big impact on some of these futures markets, so it will again be important to watch crop conditions as the season unfolds.
Listen to the full analysis below, and also listen to a quick overview of the canola market at the 11 minute mark.
Related: Good US corn harvest outlook weighs on market prices
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