The Maldives Ministry of Finance has revised down its tourism growth forecast to reflect changes in the market composition and economic and geopolitical situation.
According to the macroeconomic update published in late June, tourist arrivals in 2023 will reach 1.88 million, exceeding pre-pandemic levels and up 12.1% compared to 2022. Tourist arrivals in the first three months of 2024 were 604,004, up 15.3% compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is due to a strong increase in arrivals from China, which accounted for 11.2% of total arrivals in early 2024, up from 3.4% in 2023. The increase is due to the addition of direct flights and the Chinese New Year period.
However, there was a noticeable decline in visitor numbers from South Asia, especially India, which has been linked to the lifting of travel restrictions, the opening up of other tourist destinations, limited air connectivity and geopolitical tensions in the region.
By the end of 2023, the number of overnight stays is expected to be recorded at 12.9 million, up 5.2% from 2022. Despite this growth, the actual number of overnight stays was 3.5% lower than projected. Discrepancies in data from the Ministry of Tourism and the Maldives Inland Revenue Authority (MIRA) have been cited as the reason for this discrepancy. Efforts are underway to reconcile these figures for accuracy.
Tourist arrivals are expected to reach 2 million in 2024, an 8.1% increase from 2023. Nevertheless, the forecast number of overnight stays has been revised downwards to 13.8 million, reflecting a downward trend in average length of stay and changes in key source markets. The average length of stay is now expected to decrease to 6.8 days from the previous forecast of 7.1 days due to shorter stay lengths among Chinese tourists.
In the medium term, tourist arrivals and overnight stays are expected to grow by an average of 8.4% and 7.4%, respectively. However, forecasts have been revised downwards to take into account recent market changes and geopolitical factors. The opening of the passenger terminal at Velana International Airport in the second half of 2024 is also expected to have an impact on these forecasts.
