I recently read a novel by Herman Melville called “The Confidence Man.” (At least, I thought it was a novel when I picked it up, but it often seemed like a series of anecdotes. I’ll have to reread it.) In the story, Melville is a serial con artist. (or is it just one person?), pretending to be a doctor, philanthropist, pharmacist, philosopher, psychologist, investment advisor, etc.
One of Melville’s characters observes that it is nearly impossible for an economy to function without trust.
Trust is an essential foundation for all types of business transactions. Without it, trade between humans, as well as between countries, would cripple and stop like clockwork.
Unfortunately, evolution favors those who take advantage of others. Fortunately, an equilibrium has been reached in which only a small portion of the population is made up of sociopaths. This is Melville.
“Pray, which do you think is more common, scoundrels or fools?”
“I have hardly met either of them, or at all, and I hardly think they are capable of answering me.”
“I’ll answer for you. Fools are the best.”
“Why do you think so?”
“It’s the same reason I think oats are numerically better than horses. Don’t scoundrels munch on fools the same way horses munch on oats?”
One character insists that only machines can be trusted.
“I’m traveling now to have a machine made to do the job. Machine for me. My cider factory, will it ever steal my cider? My mower, morning Do I ever lie in bed? Does it give me arrogance? No: The cider mill, the mower, the corn peeler, all dutifully doing their jobs. They are also indifferent. They do good throughout their lives. They are the only practicing Christians I know. .”
“Oh, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear!”
And he foresees a day when all workers will be replaced by machines.
“Thus, these thousands of new inventions were carding machines, horseshoe machines, tunnel boring machines, reaping machines, apple peelers, boot blackers, sewing machines, shaving machines, disposable machines, dumbwaiter machines, etc. , and a machine known only to the Lord. All these herald a time when that recalcitrant animal, worker or servant, will be buried and replaced by a fossil.”
Melville wrote this in 1857, relatively early in the emerging industrial economy. In some ways, the question of “confidence” is perhaps much more central to today’s economy than it was in the 1850s, when most Americans were farmers and lived in small villages where people knew each other. It’s a problem. The following is from the 2021 paper. psychopathology:
In this direction, it is possible to find higher levels of psychopathic traits in certain professions and occupations (entrepreneurs, managers, politicians, investors, salesmen, surgeons, lawyers, telemarketers, etc.) It is proposed that The reason behind this may be that these very characteristics may facilitate work related to those professions or occupations and even promote success in those fields. there is(Rabbit, 2003b; Dutton, 2012; Babiak and Rabbit, 2019; Fritzen et al., 2020). . . .
in this regard, Dutton (2012)Levenson Self-Report Psychopathy Scale (LSRP; Levenson et al., 1995) We surveyed 5,400 people online about their occupations and found that in the UK, the 10 occupations most associated with psychopathic traits were: company CEO, lawyer, radio and TV presenter, salesperson, surgeon, journalist, clergyman, It turned out that he was a police officer. , chef, civil servant.
There’s a lot of discussion about what AI will and won’t be able to do in the future. I don’t see much discussion about how AI will address the following problems: confidence. Which do you trust more: a human selling herbal medicine or an AI dispensary giving advice on herbal medicine? A human real estate agent or an AI providing information on homes for sale? A human investment advisor? , or AI giving investment advice?
If Melville is right, the biggest effect of AI is that people will trust machines more than other people. Remember how Uber almost solved the taxi regulation problem? Perhaps AI will solve the principal-agent problem.
P.S. this is the link In Melville’s novel. Chapter 7 provides an interesting interpretation of effective altruism (especially from the bottom of page 53 to page 58).
