I will post things that are not directly related to the election, but will be relevant no matter who wins.
Written by Timothy Taylor Economist who can talkOctober 31, 2024.
excerpt:
It is not clear, at least to me, that the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be this different. I’ve been reading for decades that the Third Industrial Revolution was accompanied by “skills-based” technological change, which helped create income inequality that increased from around 1980. The very limited evidence currently available about the impact of artificial intelligence tools in the workplace suggests that they are particularly valuable for low-skilled workers.rather than higher-skilled workers. The fundamental reason is that the power of AI tools makes existing expertise available to everyone, providing a huge boost to those with less experience and skills.
DRH Comment: Tim’s reasoning, and that of the article he cites, to me. inference Daron Acemoglu recently won the Nobel Prize.
Written by Mark Joffe, Kato at LibertyOctober 31, 2024.
Once construction begins, there is no guarantee that it will be completed in six years. In fact, other projects have also given warnings. Honolulu took 12 years to build 17.75 miles of skyline. Maryland begins construction The 16-mile Purple Line outside Washington, D.C., was built seven years ago and is not expected to be built again. start carrying passengers Another 3 years.
When Austin’s light rail begins operating, the impact on traffic congestion may not be significant. Project sponsors expect the number of passengers to reach 28,500 per day by 2040, but past projections by other agencies may prove to be overly optimistic. For example, Honolulu city officials expected the first phase of Skyline service to carry 10,000 passengers per day; Actual number of passengers This is only about a third of the prediction. railway project san francisco and southern california It has also been observed that there is a significant shortfall between actual and expected passenger numbers.
Additionally, many light rail users may switch from existing bus services in the future. Cap Metro’s 801 Rapid Bus It is expected that many of the passengers on this bus route will become light rail passengers, as it covers a large portion of the route served by the light rail project. As a result, even if light rail attracts 28,500 passenger trips in 2040, only a fraction of them will be replaced by car trips.
DRH Comment: The late George Hilton taught courses on urban transportation and received his Ph.D. UCLA students (Harry Watson and I were two in the class) and undergraduates during the winter semester of 1973 would have loved Mark Joffe’s article. And Mark Joffe would have loved George’s course. George said of the many urban mass transit projects of the 1970s (three he highlighted were San Francisco’s BART, which opened a few months ago, the Washington subway and Atlanta’s MARTA, which were under construction): I still remember that. supporter The project acknowledged that it would replace only one to two years of long-term growth in vehicle traffic. One thing I don’t remember George mentioning is that while these projects were being built, traffic was slowing down. And it went on for years. Any reasonable cost-benefit analysis should include the value of people’s time lost over several years. Also remember that you are discounting the benefit and cost streams using a reasonable interest rate. Therefore, the upfront cost of lost time would be significant.
Written by Timothy Taylor Economist who can talkNovember 1, 2024.
excerpt:
(B) Between $11,000 and $65,000, our hypothetical family experiences no overall economic benefit from the increase in income. … (A) Most welfare programs and tax credits are completely or partially lost when income increases from $11,000 to $65,000. Combined with the increase in tax liability, these losses completely offset the increase in income. … It has been observed that at a certain level of employment income between $11,000 and $65,000, family net worth decreases. This means that the combined loss of welfare programs exceeds the increase in income, meaning families are facing a benefits cliff. The first drop occurs at $22,000, when a family loses access to SNAP. The second benefit cliff occurs at $27,000 and the family loses TANF. That would be followed by several smaller benefit cliffs due to the loss of school lunches, WIC, federal and state EITC, adult Medicaid, and children’s Medicaid/CHIP. Finally, the last and largest benefit cliff occurs at $61,000, which involves the loss of CCDF child care subsidies.
The authors call this the “profit cliff.” I sometimes call it the “poverty trap” (e.g. here and here), because it discourages poor and near-poor households from working. There is no easy way to deal with this situation. Reducing benefits to low-income households has clear downsides for those households. Gradually phasing out the benefit as income increases means providing the benefit to more households, which will significantly increase costs. Ultimately, I think our society will rely on the fact that many low-income families actually want to work independently and avoid or minimize the use of government assistance. . However, for other low-income households, the poverty trap will seriously disincentivize them from working.
DRH Note: Read the first sentence to understand it. For vast swaths of the population (tens of millions of households), there are few economic benefits to be gained from working, at least in the terrestrial economy.
My late Hoover colleague Martin Anderson wrote in his book on welfare that there are three goals that people generally seek from the welfare system, and that it can achieve at most two: (1) welfare; A system with sufficient incentives to quit; 2) a generous system; and (3) a relatively inexpensive system.
This is why welfare reform in the mid-1990s made so much sense and actually worked until the federal government cut the rules. It limited the amount of time people could receive welfare at a time and for the rest of their lives. Of course, welfare in the narrow sense is only one component of a welfare state.
Written by Darryl James and Lenny Flaherty reasonOctober 29, 2024.
excerpt:
Certificate of need (CON) laws exist in various forms in 38 states and Washington, DC. The purpose of such legislation is to keep costs down by preventing over-investment in the single market. If regulators determine that an area is already well-served with all types of services, they could block new construction.
As a result, certain health care facilities cannot open or expand in North Carolina without regulatory approval. Even if you purchase an MRI scanner without authorization. illegal. These restrictions prohibit Singleton from using his clinic in New Bern for most of his surgeries. He must drive two miles up the road to the competitor’s office because the competitor’s office is owned by a large healthcare company. This unnecessary red tape increases costs, reduces scheduling options, and hurts patients.
DRH Comment: The acronym CON is appropriate.
