By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Bay Creek Nature Preserve (gated community, restricted access), Northampton, Virginia, United States. Plus a mourning dove.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Today’s RCP polling: Kamala closing, but Trump holds.
- Election prediction round-up .
- Boeing workers sign contract, News Guild tech workers on strike at NYT.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Countdown!
NEW Today’s RCP Poll Averages:
Lambert here: There were some changes, so one last time. If we ignore the concept of margin of error, today’s survey, combined with Friday’s, says that although the Blue Wall is now Kamala’s, her surge has been arrested. Recall, however, that the polls lag: Big Mo is fickle! Then again, if you look at the electoral college results with the Toss-Up states turned red or blue, Trump is stable and ahead. (I’m “dancing with the one that brung ya” on method, here; I’ve watched RCP consistently all year, hoping the average would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know at some point, well, in the near future whether that was an appropriate choice.) Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Our Final 2024 Ratings” (Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball). “We mentioned a few weeks ago that we misplaced our Crystal Ball. As an update, we regret to say that we still have not found it. So no final ratings this year. Have fun on Tuesday!… OK, fine, we’ll give it a try. We are not going to try to concoct some grand theory as to why one candidate may be favored in this election. We’ve tried them all out, and we don’t find anything that is convincing—if we did, we would have said so by now. We will leave it to the Wednesday morning quarterbacks—or is it Thursday or Friday?—to tell us how clear it was that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would win. These things seem obvious in hindsight, but the outcome sure doesn’t seem obvious to us now. The polls, collectively, aren’t really providing a clear signal—and, even if they were, we’d likely be suspicious of that signal, given polling challenges in the last two presidential elections. Let’s just get to the 7 key states. What follows is based on off-record conversations with contacts, our sense of the polling picture, past history, and more.” Then follows their analysis of the swing states (and Selzer; in essence, she has form and could be directionally correct, and there are other tremors in the Midwest, especially Kansas). Here is their map:
270toWin’s non-call, the consensus view:
They do, however, have a handy interactive combinations tool to play with the swing states.
“FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” (Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin). “At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.”
“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” (FiveThirtyEight). “538’s final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it’s a real nail-biter. Our model gives Harris a 50 out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. Our model gives Trump a 49 out of 100 chance. The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more Trump-leaning race but also moved in Harris’s direction Monday. A close race in the polls, though, does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.”
Allan Lichtman once more:
He has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 Presidential elections & despite this #election2024 being historically tight @AllanLichtman stands firmly by his prediction that #KamalaHarris will win. He explains why: pic.twitter.com/dTHckj3Pol
— Rosemary Church (@rosemaryCNN) November 4, 2024
“How the Election Could Unfold: Four Scenarios” (Nate Cohn, New York Times). “Here are four scenarios for what could happen in this election. They’re all plausible — so plausible that each might seem obvious in hindsight. (1) If Kamala Harris wins big, we should have seen it coming all along. Democrats have won election after election since Mr. Trump’s upset victory in 2016. (2) In today’s polarized country, what could be less surprising than a more-or-less repeat of the 2020 election: yet another close election across the battleground states, with few swings from four years ago? (3) Yet the polls suggest that the 2024 election might look more like the 2022 midterms than the 2020 race: an election where different states, regions and demographic groups swing significantly, but in different directions. (4) If Mr. Trump wins big, we should have seen it coming all along. On paper, this election should be a Republican victory.” • From the enthusiastic tone, Cohn endorses (1). But there is this cautionary prose in (4): “In this scenario, Ms. Harris’s apparent strength among white and older voters, or her resilience in the Midwestern battlegrounds, is nothing more than another polling mirage — in exactly the same states where the polls got it wrong four and eight years ago. Add in Mr. Trump’s gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters and you end up with a decisive victory for him. It would mark the beginning of a new era of politics.”
“Why prediction markets swung toward Harris before Election Day” (Axios). “Former President Trump’s chances of recapturing the White House fell sharply over the weekend across prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Then they climbed back up. Volatility like this underlines why using betting markets to gauge the status of the presidential race is tricky. And yet, prediction and betting markets have emerged this year as a powerful force in shaping public opinion — and campaign messaging — about the horse race. Prediction markets are misnamed. They are betting lines intended to provide a price to wager on at a given moment in time — not necessarily to forecast whether the outcome is probable.” • And they can be gamed.
* * * Prognostication:
Viral baby hippo Moo Deng predicts Trump will win by eating cake with local spelling of Donald Trump’s name written on top pic.twitter.com/4yOwhqtoRG
— New York Post (@nypost) November 4, 2024
* * * Election map (1):
Election Touchscreen Map Takes Deeper Look Inside Key Swing Voter | Onion News Network
ONN political analyst Jason Copeland breaks down the latest presidential polling trends going on inside Pennsylvania resident Nick Camden. pic.twitter.com/F3LapdLCHC
— The Onion (@TheOnion) November 4, 2024
Election map (2):
My final prediction map for the election pic.twitter.com/REhD0W82ZE
— greg (@greg16676935420) November 4, 2024
Election map (3):
Early predictions of tonight’s election are in and it’s a landslide victory for the oligarchs. pic.twitter.com/ZPTSYxuBMS
— Danny Haiphong (@SpiritofHo) November 5, 2024
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: Covid
“SARS-CoV-2 variants induce increased inflammatory gene expression but reduced interferon responses and heme synthesis as compared with wild type strains” (Nature). From the Abtract: “We analysed transcriptional signatures of COVID-19 patients comparing those infected with wildtype (wt), alpha, delta or omicron strains seeking insights into infection in Asymptomatic cases….
Stats Watch
Supply Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” (Trading Economics). “The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US increased to 58.9 in October 2024, the highest since September 2022, compared to 58.6 in the previous month, and pointing to a solid growth in the US logistics sector. The overall index has now increased for eleven consecutive months, providing strong evidence that the logistics industry is back on solid footing.” • And with it, the warehouses in central Pennsylvania?
Banks: “The FDIC has accidentally released a list of companies it bailed out for billions in the Silicon Valley Bank collapse” (Fortune). “When federal regulators stepped in to backstop all of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits, they saved thousands of small tech startups and prevented what could have been a catastrophic blow to a sector that relied heavily on the lender. But the decision to guarantee all accounts above the $250,000 federal deposit insurance limit also helped bigger companies that were in no real danger. Sequoia Capital, the world’s most prominent venture-capital firm, got covered the $1 billion it had with the lender. Kanzhun Ltd., a Beijing-based tech company that runs mobile recruiting app Boss Zhipin, received a backstop for more than $900 million. ”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists approve new contract, ending strike” (Seattle Times). “Machinists union members voted Monday to approve the company’s most recent contract offer, enabling Boeing to restart work at assembly plants in Everett and Renton and at parts plants throughout the region. Results announced late Monday showed the offer was approved with 59% of ballots cast in favor. ‘This is a victory, we can hold our heads high,’ said Jon Holden, president of the striking Machinists union local. ‘We all stood strong, and we achieved something that we hadn’t achieved the last 22 years.’ ‘Now it’s our job to get back to work and start building the airplanes, increase the rates and bring this company back to financial success,” he continued. Asked Monday if there would be lingering anger over Boeing’s tactic of threatening to reduce the next offer if this one was rejected, Holden said it ‘was hard bargaining on both sides, and there’s always hard feelings.’ ;We’ll get through it and we’ll get back to building planes,’ Holden said. ‘We’ll work on the relationship later.’” • Union members in the readership please comment: I would have liked to see a Union seat on Boeing’s board; could they do worse? I would also have liked for the contract to end on May Day, 2028. The machinist leadership strikes me as…. unimaginative. As below–
Manufacturing: “Boeing Workers Ratify Contract With 43.65 Percent Wage Increase Over 4 Years” (Truthout). “IAM’s international president, Brian Bryant, called the contract ‘a new standard in the aerospace industry — one that sends a clear statement that aerospace jobs must be middle-class careers in which workers can thrive.’ ‘Workers in the aerospace industry, led by the IAM — the most powerful aerospace union in the world — will not settle for anything less than the respect and family-sustaining wages and benefits they need and deserve,’ said Bryant. ‘This agreement reflects the positive results of workers sticking together, participating in workplace democracy, and demonstrating solidarity with each other and with the community during a necessary and effective strike.’” • But–
Manufacturing: “Boeing factory strike ends as workers vote to accept contract” (Associated Press). Reactions were mixed even among union members who voted to accept the contract. Although she voted ‘yes,’ Seattle-based calibration specialist Eep Bolaño said the outcome was ‘most certainly not a victory.’ Bolaño said she and her fellow workers made a wise but infuriating choice to accept the offer. ‘We were threatened by a company that was crippled, dying, bleeding on the ground, and us as one of the biggest unions in the country couldn’t even extract two-thirds of our demands from them. This is humiliating,’ she said. For other workers like William Gardiner, a lab lead in calibration services, the revised offer was a cause for celebration. ‘I’m extremely pumped over this vote,’ said Gardiner, who has worked for Boeing for 13 years. ‘We didn’t fix everything — that’s OK. Overall, it’s a very positive contract.’”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Stock Is Falling. Don’t Blame the Union, Workers Voted to End the Strike” (Barron’s). Thanks, Barron’s. “Wages and benefit increases will raise Boeing’s costs between $1 billion and $2 billion a year by the end of the contract, according to Wall Street estimates. That will amount to about 2% of Boeing’s total costs later in the decade, when plane production has recovered from a decline in recent years.” 2%. More: “While a new jet could help restore balance between Boeing and Airbus, it won’t be cheap. New plane programs can cost as much as $30 billion to develop, according to BofA Securities analyst Ronald Epstein. That spending shows up in higher spending on research and development over many years.”
Manufacturing: “Godfather Of Aircraft Leasing Outlines Boeing’s Next Steps” (Airline Ratings). “What is the most likely aircraft that will ultimately emerge, and how close are we? It will probably be a large single-aisle or maybe a mini twin-aisle. But this is not a good time to launch a new narrowbody, we are not pushing it at the moment, they have to get their house in order. The A320 family is now almost 35 years old, and the 737-200 was certified in December 1968, that’s a 56-year-old design. So it is time for some new stuff, but nobody has the courage or the money to do it. The technology is probably available, but the economics of that new technology is not favourable for the airlines. The maintenance costs now outweigh the fuel savings, that’s not a good equation. Our customers rather want to stabilize their existing new technology aircraft like Boeing’s 737MAXs/787s or Airbus’s A350s/A320neos, they want to see those things running reliably.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 48 Neutral) (CNN). One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Quite a swing.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Interest Rates. “Long term rates are moving higher” (Rapture Ready). Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 182. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) •
Our Famously Free Press
Not quite sure where to file this, since it’s certainly not a plant. From Wukchumni:
Wukchumni writes: “Newspaper Rock, Utah.”
Gallery
Birch Forest, 1903 #artbots #klimt pic.twitter.com/kV2gYQubrc
— Gustav Klimt (@artistgklimt) November 3, 2024
“New York Times tech worker strike stretches into Election Day” (FOX). “The New York Times woke up to Election Day with hundreds of its tech staffers still on strike on the most important news day of the year. ‘We are back out on the picket line today,’ the Times Tech Guild wrote on X. ‘We know this is a hard day to be on strike for our members but we want to be clear: We are here because of the decisions of @NYTimes management.’” • Commentary:
As you may have read, our colleagues in the Tech Guild are on strike. While they don’t play a role in the model itself, they built and maintain the infrastructure that feeds us data and lets us publish on the internet
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2024
The needle is stupid….
“Perplexity CEO offers AI company’s services to replace striking NYT staff” (TechCrunch). • Oh.
I am not feeling wired today.
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:
TH writes: It’s fine if my little friend here doesn’t make the cut. It’s just that season where one finds them hanging around and though they are a bit unsettling, I found this fellow quite striking.” I will make an exception because of the lovely green shades of the plants in the background.
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