Written by Thomas Neuberger. Originally published on God’s Spies.
Analysis of recent historic Democratic defeats has been thorough. Some provide data and forensic analysis, while others provide and prescribe recipes for what to do differently.
Before I elaborate on my own forensic science, I would like to refer to material from other fields. Think of this as a mosaic of what is being said. What do you think this adds up to?
I’ll be sharing my thoughts soon, either this week or next.
What the party expected in the long term
I think this is where you need to start to understand what happened this week. This chart is from the Center for American Progress’ (CAP) 2020 report.The Future of American Elections: The Coming Generational Change”. It claims to show a “full generational effect” on voting in selected states over the next several cycles. Note the slow but inevitable march towards the sea. In this case, it’s the warm embrace of the party dressed in blue.
Note the highlighted prediction for 2024. (2020 is shown as a projection because the study was released before that year’s election.) Of the states that CAP predicts will turn blue in 2020, That was the case in all but Florida.. )
Youth voting was supposed to be a big part of this movement, but demographic shifts meant that nearly every segment would eventually turn blue.
What actually happened: Voter base
This time the actual results were very different. Let’s start with the voter segments.
Restructuring of youth
With the CAP report in mind, consider the following from the Tufts University circle. Studying youth voting:
Nationally, 52% of young people voted for Vice President Harris, and 46% of young people voted for President Trump, according to a CIRCLE analysis of AP VoteCast polls. …(I)n 2020 (Trump) received 36% of the vote from voters ages 18 to 29.
Democratic youth voting has declined to nearly 20% of 2020 votes. The situation by gender in 2024 and 2020 is as follows:
Return to the CAP projection above. Of the states projected to turn blue in 2024 (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina), not a single state turned blue. Arizona, which has not yet been called, is leaning toward Trump.
income readjustment
exit poll show income adjustment. In 2020, all income groups except the moderately wealthy (those with an annual income of $100,000 or more) strongly supported the Democratic Party.
In 2024, everything has changed. Both low- and middle-income people support the Republican Party, while wealthy people increasingly support the Democratic Party. The margin is smaller, but you can’t go wrong with the switch.
By and large, Democrats represent the wealthiest people.
Racial and ethnic change
Many have already noted the shift in support among racial and ethnic groups. CNN has done a lot Analysis using exit polls:
Latino voters, especially men, have been leaning toward Trump since 2016. This year, for the first time, Latino men tilted toward Trump. In 2020, Biden won by a 23-point margin, and in 2024, Trump won. Latina women still supported Harris, but the margin was smaller than for Clinton or Biden.
Supporting educational disparities
From CNN again. Trump’s support among whites without degrees remains strong. Harris lost support among voters of color, regardless of their degree.
Harris’ fall from grace with Clinton in 2016 is particularly notable.
Economic voters show support for Trump
Trump’s views on the economy and his personal experiences of hardship brought many voters closer to Trump. If the economy was your issue, you probably voted for Trump.
The number of people who think their situation is getting worse has more than doubled since 2020.
In 2020, just about a fifth of voters said the situation was worse than four years ago. Almost half of voters say the situation is worse this year than it was four years ago. Mr. Trump won overwhelmingly.
Some argue that the first graph is subjective (“views” are always subjective), but the second graph (“families are left behind”) is probably based on fact.
“Democracy in crisis”
lastly, Message: Democracy is at risk It cooperated only with the Democratic Party.
What actually happened: Across the constituency.
Data from across the electorate: mixed messages.
Near Universal “Red Shift”
This is Redshift by county (All voters) As of this writing:
National popularity vote
But despite all of this leaning toward Trump, overall; National popularity vote It fell while Trump’s share rose.
persuade the republican party
The Democrats’ closing strategy appears to have been to win over Republican voters who don’t like President Trump. Here’s how it worked out (thanks via email from Dave Johnson).
‘Double Haters’ express support for Trump
In fact, most people dislike (have an unfavorable view of) both candidates. I chose Trump over Harris..
I’m one of those people who didn’t expect that to happen.
Analysis: Party Expert
Many people close to the party’s core, including consultants and media experts, have expressed their views.
One of the more notable (and classic) takes is Morning Joe Scarborough talks with Pastor Al Sharpton. Bottom line: Racism and sexism doomed the campaign.
The reaction of “blaming the voters” can be seen everywhere. Click here for campaigns and gun control activists Shannon Watts:
feminist writer Jill Filipovich:
dnc chair jamie harrisoncounters Bernie Sanders’ populist-leaning advice:
Party leaders and supporters generally maintain that Harris carried the presidential race. Great deals. the it’s not her fault.
Analysis: Other WEighth in
Some people have different opinions. Economist Pavlina Chernevaa good Twitter thread, notes How many progressive bills were passed in states won by President Trump?.
Ian Welsh I looked at it abortion reform — Ballot measures that supported it and how Harris did in these states:
David Sirota think Harris’ embrace of the wealthy There was a large damping effect.
And let’s consider this, from late david graber about the crime of “radical centrism”. He claims Obama, and by extension most of the party, is guilty (hat tip) double down news).
It gives you food for thought, right? It’s probably worth more than a serving.
music
Why not? Some people may remember This one On the question of choice.
