dizzy 3d
My history with charting Wall Street’s latest hot stocks is pretty simple. In the financial markets I charted, especially during bear markets, there were markets that were close to their target amounts. Not Nvidia (Nasdaq:NVDA), showed it The wave pattern hands and lands, or in the latest bullish case, explodes on target every time.
In September 2022, I outlined a scenario where NVIDIA fell from $143 to $121, with the actual bottom of that bear market being $108, but as the saying goes, “When things go up… “People generally make money,” so I think there is a possibility of a bullish reversal from a macro perspective. In the January 2023 Monthly issue, I published an exclusive article with his Seeking Alpha outlining that if this stock were to break through $187, he would look for $267 as the next stop.
Nvidia Breakout Chart (Company C)
You can view See the original chart above and find the link to the chart. here.
But the $267 figure is a long way from the tech giant’s current levels. Those of you who follow me on LinkedIn will know that the additional recommended targets were $445 and then $700/$800, but in reality, this potential into the $1600 region The future wave is much higher. It was the highest since the $108 low.
During this period, I met many analysts who explained that Nvidia did not rise to the top at various stages, and some even went back to Seeking Alpha to explain why they were wrong. I was there.
The reality is that, first of all, we have a crystal ball that allows us to decipher what the financial markets will be like in the future, which is probably difficult to understand, just as we have seen over time with the invention of ships, trains, airplanes, and automobiles. That means no one has it. , telephones, the internet, and now AI…
How these inventions designed to move us, products, and information at a faster pace will take the human universe to the “next level” as we reach across time.
This “next level”, in this case AI, has played a major role in pushing the S&P500 into new stratospheres, along with Nvidia and a handful of other companies that have made our daily lives more robotic.
Now let’s take a more specific look at NVIDIA from a business perspective before moving to the charts and analyzing the technical setup that could move this stock far north.
The world’s leading GPU manufacturer is said to hold an 80% market share in this field and has made significant contributions to the advancement of AI technology, leading the way over its main competitors AMD and Intel.
The company’s trailing 12-month earnings alone have exceeded the average of 19.5%, but since AI is effectively still in its infancy, we can assume that the earnings are likely to grow even further in the future. The market is waiting for the next set of numbers, and the bulls are waiting to see if the recent high of $965 can be broken out, in which case a huge third wave could be in store. There is.
I heard recently that this stock is up 435% in the past 15 months. It is well documented that AI is still in its infancy, so is this expected rise priced in? Answer: Very likely. The problem is that you have to have a rejection candle at the upper end of a bull market, especially on something called a specific time frame like a monthly candlestick to measure the probability of future prices.
In this case, Nvidia has initiated a bull/bear structure, as discussed in the chart below. Months of bullish demand meets a slight selloff, pushing the price to the next level above what looks like an “auction” picture.
Let’s now move on to the chart and examine the possible technological path upwards for Nvidia.
Nvidia’s current monthly chart (Company C)
The low opening of this wave is around $400 and the high is at $965. The second wave extends from the latter to the $750 area, clearly showing bullish and bearish appetite. A bearish rejection candle with a heavy wick means decision rather than indecision. In general, if the rejected candle especially has more wicks than bodies, it suggests that the number of sellers to be found during this period is small, and the supply and demand situation in this case is as follows: clear.
According to three-wave theory, the third wave is believed to numerically reproduce the overall parameters of the first and second waves. In this case, if the price in the financial market moved from $400 to $965 focusing on the highest printable time frame of the monthly candlestick, before finding the rejected price point, the price would move to that rejected level. , you can get an accurate target price for the third wave breakout by trying to reproduce that exact number again with all probability before being rejected again.
This potential third wave is poised to continue its bullish traction and push the tech frontrunner above $965 to levels that are not even close to doubling today’s level.
So what could go wrong? Is there a bearish case?
geopolitical uncertainty, competitors developing products that the market does not like that could threaten Nvidia’s advantages or revenues; Technically, there is a bear case where NVIDIA could fall to $660 if $760 breaks, but as we speak, this stock is well positioned for this scenario. Not prepared.
Ultimately, I expect Nvidia to withdraw $965 and look for $1600 territory within the next 240-300 days. As always, there is a scenario where the price does not break above $965 and head directly towards $1,600. For example, as we have seen in many cases, the stock could break out on the upside, only to retreat into a wave structure before retrying to agree to the target. As long as Nvidia breaks above $400 and breaks through the $965 resistance, I believe there will be a big buying wave.
