I once Posts I felt that John Rawls’ argument that it is unjust to benefit from innate abilities was inferior to J.R.R. Tolkien’s argument that humans benefit from their innate abilities. Lord of the Ring:
More than anything, this attitude reminds us of what Boromir said to Frodo when he tried to steal the Ring of Power.
It is not yours, except by an unfortunate coincidence! It could have been mine! It should be mine! Give it to me!
To Tolkien, these are the words of a man corrupted by the influence of the devil. But to Rawls, these are simply the demands of justice due to the unfairness of benefiting from our own attributes. In my opinion, Tolkien has more true wisdom to share with the world than Rawls.
Today I would like to take that theme further and argue that Tolkien’s novels display greater wisdom in foreseeing the future than the works of the great science writer Isaac Asimov.
First, Tyler Cohen recently share This is a list of predictions made by Asimov in 1981 about events that would occur in the coming decades. The list includes the following:
1985 – World oil production falls short of world demand
1990 – North America is no longer a reliable source of food exports
1995 — The nations of the world (reluctantly) meet at a World Conference to seriously address the problems of population, food and energy.
2000 – With global support, construction of a solar power station in Earth orbit begins.
2005 – A mining station opens on the moon.
2010 — World population will peak at around 7 billion.
2015 — International war will become impossible due to the dismantling of the world’s military institutions.
2020 – Energy flow from a solar-powered space station begins. Construction of a nuclear fusion station advances.
2025 — The World Congress is recognized as a permanent institution. Improved communication results in a universal language being established and taught in schools.
2030 — The use of microcomputers and electronic computers will revolutionize education, create a global village, and prepare humanity for a thorough exploration of the solar system and plans for eventual migration to the stars.
As readers have probably noticed, most of Asimov’s predictions were far from accurate (though Cowen gives him credit for being mostly right on two of them). I’m not writing this article to criticize Asimov for being mostly wrong. I’m sure he could have presented very convincing arguments at the time for why things turned out the way he predicted, but I don’t think I could have offered a convincing rebuttal. But as the great philosopher and poet Yogi Berra once said, predictions are hard, especially about the future. I’m not saying I would have made better predictions in his place. No one could make such grand predictions for such a long period of time and execute them well. The world is too complex, and there are bound to be unexpected developments that were not included in the predictions, that would derail them.
And this is something I think very intelligent people like Asimov miss: he was not stupid. In terms of pure intellect, I would never match him. And I think he might even surpass Tolkien in that respect. If we brought Asimov back to life today and had him rethink his predictions, I’m sure he would come up with all sorts of predictions. after He couldn’t explain why things hadn’t gone as expected, but in advance Whether this is the case or not is the key failing here. written In other cases, the fact that one had no way of knowing what the consequences of one’s actions would be was often knowable and should have been known, as was the fact that, in making grand predictions, there would be unforeseen and unexpected developments that would affect how things would turn out.
So where does Tolkien come in to all this? I believe Tolkien shared a more enlightened perspective through the character of Elrond in the first book of his trilogy. Travel companionsAs they debate how to deal with the threat of Sauron and the One Ring in Rivendell, the Council gradually comes to the startling realization that the best way forward depends not on the feats of mighty warriors like Glorfindel or powerful wizards like Gandalf, but on the simple courage of humble hobbits. Elrond tells Frodo (and the entire Council):
“If I have understood all I have heard correctly,” he said, “I believe that this task has been given to you, Frodo, and if you do not find the way, no one will. Now is the time for the people of the Shire, for they to rise from the quiet fields and shake the towers and counsels of the great ones. Who of the wise could have foreseen it? Or, if he be wise, can he expect to know it until the time comes?
It’s that last sentence that gets to the heart of what I’m talking about here. Not only does Elrond recognize that things unfolded in ways that even the wisest could not have predicted. More importantly, Elrond says that the very inability to predict how things would unfold is something that any truly wise person would have already understood. And this shows the difference between innate intelligence and true wisdom. In terms of pure intellectual power, Asimov would have surpassed Tolkien. But wisdom is more than intellect, and too often the arrogance that comes with superior intelligence undermines the humility that true wisdom requires. Just as William Buckley once said he would rather be governed by people selected from the telephone book than by the Harvard faculty, I would rather live in a society guided by Tolkien’s wisdom than Asimov’s intellect.
