“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
-Henry Kissinger
When one looks today out over the carnage and destruction on the periphery of a declining empire, have those words ever been so true? One twist, nowadays, might be that to be America’s enemy is actually beneficial due to the parade of unforced errors by the falling hegemon.
Let’s take a look, starting with three “friends.”
Ukraine. The tragedy in Ukraine since the US really took the reins with the 2014 coup is difficult to overstate.
Let’s just go with the fact that its democracy is now officially dead, neo-Nazis basically run the country, and its population is being wiped out. Ukraine’s population had already been in decline since 1991, but that trend accelerated after the 2014 US-backed coup. Over the last two years, the mass exodus from the country and deaths from the war now have the population down to 29 million – the lowest in the last 300 years.
Despite all that, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is still talking about bringing Ukraine into NATO, all but ensuring its demise. Due to Kiev’s refusal to negotiate or its not being allowed to by its American handlers, it’s entirely possible that Ukraine will ultimately cease to exist as a state. The fact is that the US Blob understands this, but continues on nonetheless because…hope for a miracle? They don’t want a collapse to occur before November and hurt Biden’s reelection chances? It could be worse:
What if the US Empire loses two of its three imperial beachheads (Ukraine and Taiwan) before the election–with the third (Zionism) on the ropes as an international pariah?
— American Exception (@Aaron_Good_) May 24, 2024
But what does the US friendship have left to give? All the wonder weapons have turned out to be duds, and it’s almost as if the US couldn’t care less about its friends in Ukraine. Here’s a brutal summary from Spoils of War:
The $60,000 Switchblade drone, produced in limited numbers due to cost, proved useless against armored targets and was quickly discarded by Ukrainian troops in favor of $700 Chinese commercial models ordered online. The $10 million Abrams tank not only proved distressingly vulnerable to Russian attack drones but in any case broke down repeatedly and was soon withdrawn from combat, though not before the Russians put several out of action and captured at least one, which they took to Moscow and added to a display of Nato weaponry, that included an M777 howitzer, in a Moscow park. The M777 cannon, though touted for its accuracy, has proved too delicate for the rough conditions of sustained combat, with barrels regularly wearing out and requiring replacement in Poland far from the front lines . Notoriously, its 155 mm ammunition has been in short supply. Thanks to the consolidation of the U.S. defense industry into a small number of monopolies, a ill-judged policy eagerly promoted since the Clinton Administration, U.S. domestic production of 155 mm shells is reliant on a single ageing General Dynamics plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania, which is struggling to meet its targets. President Zelensky has been loudly demanding more Patriot launchers and missiles to defend Kharkiv, which is curious, given the apparent ease with which the Russians have targeted Patriots defending Kyiv, and the system’s declining effectiveness against Russian ballistic missiles. HIMARS long range missiles indeed had deadly effect on high value Russian targets, such as ammunition dumps, but the Russians adapted by dispersing and camouflaging such dumps and other likely targets.
A recent opinion piece in none other than CNN contains the usual condemnations of Russia and championing of American defense of democracy but also admits the open secret that Ukraine cannot and will not win and details the sorry state of American friendship:
When Biden spoke of the war in Ukraine, Americans were told we faced a choice between offering Kyiv unconditional support or “withdrawing” from the conflict and letting Putin “erase” Ukraine. But these kinds of Manichean views that divide the world into evil aggressors and righteous victims do not make impossible military victories any more achievable.
The same applies to the next case study.
Israel is embroiled in a losing fight against Hamas while also perpetrating “plausible” genocide against the people of Gaza. World opinion has finally turned against the country, and its backers in the US are forced to resort to increasingly heavy handed tactics in an attempt to quiet criticism at home and abroad, which is not working.
Impartial observers have been saying for years that there was no “security” solution for Israel through increased apartheid and military means. And yet, the country’s backers in the US encouraged just that, ensuring that the violence will continue to escalate in a contest that Israel cannot win. The best case scenario for Israel at the moment is that it settles into its status as an international pariah state.
As Stephen M. Walt recently concluded in a piece at Foreign Policy, “…”if the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its allies were capable of self-reflection, they’d be mortified by what they have helped Israel do to itself.”
The ICJ and ICC are offering the US yet more off ramps, but instead the doubling down continues.
Incredible. US Speaker of the House: “we don’t put any international body above our sovereignty”
“International body above sovereignty” is the very definition of international law.
So it’s official: the US rejects the very concept of international law. pic.twitter.com/qmhCCrNTm2
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) May 25, 2024
How about Germany? At one point Washington was “considering offering” to use its advanced underwater sound reading capabilities to analyze audio recordings from around the time of the Nord Stream explosions, but I don’t see if they ever followed through. Well, I’m sure they’ll get to the bottom of it someday.
Germany shouldn’t have its agency completely removed in the latest war-against-Russia fiasco as there are plenty of powerful people there who were salivating over the breakup and plunder of Russia. At the same time, there’s no doubt that the US friendship (i.e., tens of thousands of US troops stationed in Germany, Atlanticist NGOs, intelligence agency tentacles, bags of money, etc.) played a large role in Germany once again going down the path of conflict with Russia.
It’s been a disaster. The economy is contracting as industry shrinks, exports to China are declining and there is constant pressure from Atlanticists to self-impose a further reduction (maybe there are limits to this abusive relationship as even the most die-hard German Atlanticists are starting to get cold feet about trade war with China), living standards are declining, political paralysis reigns on most matters except social cuts and more military spending, wealth inequality grows, and industry continues to leave the country – frequently to the US.
And across Europe, despite the “record” volumes of gas in European storage facilities, energy experts are already worried about possible fuel shortages this upcoming winter – as they will be about every winter for the foreseeable future – as a result of having to buy LNG on the world market, which was the deliberate policy of the US.
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Meanwhile, the Axis of Evil label is back in vogue in Washington, now used to demonize China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. And yet US actions in recent years have only served to aid these countries, strengthening their alliances with one another and many other nations.
Iran
As Stephen M. Walt noted in the above-referenced piece on the US’ failures to prevent Israel’s self-destruction, the flipside of that is that the US “enemy” Iran has become stronger. Walt notes that Tehran is “close to having a nuclear weapon” – if it wants to develop it – and it has “thwarted U.S. efforts to isolate it.”
The goal of the US has been to expand diplomatic, economic, and security ties between Israel and its Arab neighbors, particularly the Gulf states, creating a united front to constrain Iran’s aggressiveness and trim its regional ambitions.That plan is all but dead, starting with the China-led Iran-Saudi Arabia detente last year and now with Israel’s “plausible” genocide in Gaza that has shelved further normalization of ties between Israel and its neighbors.
But largely Iran has been helped by one of the greatest strategic errors ever by the Blob in Washington – the driving of China and Russia together. By alienating both Moscow and Beijing simultaneously, not only have they grown closer, but they also have less reason to comply with US sanctions on Iran. Tehran’s alignment with the two powers is reducing its isolation and bringing economic and military benefits.
Last year, former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made a state visit to China where the two sides signed more than 20 cooperative agreements as part of what both governments refer to as a “strategic partnership.” That means energy for China and potentially billions in investments for Iran.
Defense ties between Tehran and Moscow are also on the upswing. From the Stimson Center:
Iran has supplied Russia with munitions, artillery shells, and drones (Shahed-131/136 series and the more advanced Mohajer-6), which involves establishing an entire factory for producing Iranian-style drones on Russian soil. In November 2023 Tehran announced that it would be getting Russian Su-35 fighter jets as well as Mi-28 attack helicopters. The deal was reported as finalized but apparently has not yet occurred. Iranian ballistic missile shipments to Russia, if confirmed, suggest that the fighter jets, helicopters, and perhaps even the S-400 missile defense system will be sent to Tehran soon. In February 2024, Russia also sent an Iranian satellite into orbit marking burgeoning ties in the space industry.
Iranian media has reported that Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft have already arrived and are ready for operational use. Russia may also begin to use the new Iranian kamikaze drone Shahed-101 (and its modified version Shaheed-107) which have been used by Iran-backed militias to lethal effect against U.S. forces in the Middle East.
Just as important are the economic ties. With an investment boost from Russia, Tehran has been trying to speed up the completion of improved railway networks that will connect to the existing railways of Russia and Azerbaijan and Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran, thereby completing a crucial section of the International North-South Transportation Corridor running from Russia to India.
Iran also entered into a free trade agreement with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) late last year. The EEU has received a major boost from Washington sanctions. From Silk Road Briefing:
It has had the unexpected effects of boosting regional GDP growth rates: in their “Regional Economic Prospects” report, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), analysts noted that Kazakhstan’s 2022 GDP growth reached 3.4% instead of the previously anticipated 2%.
Part of that has been due to sanctions, with an increase in income due to the re-export to Russia of computers, household appliances and electronics, auto parts, electrical and electronic components. Exports of non-energy goods from Kazakhstan to Russia in 2022 increased by 24.8% and amounted to US$18.9 billion. …
An EAEU Intergovernmental Council meeting held in early February this year showed that the economic situation in all EAEU members states is stable, and mutual trade is growing. Anti-Russian sanctions actually significantly contribute to this growth, meaning that for EAEU members especially, as well as countries such as China and India, the attractiveness of Russia as an economic partner has grown.
Russia
The US unintentionally helping its enemies has a long tradition, specifically in Russia. Following World War One, the Herbert Hoover-led American Relief Administration helped get food to starving Russians. In Herbert’s mind it was going to be a win-win for the US: it helped with surplus crops in the US, and it would help eradicate the nascent communism in Russia since Hoover believed that only hungry people were communists.
It didn’t quite work out that way. Hoover did help save millions of lives in Russia but also likely saved communism itself as all the full bellies didn’t stamp out the ideology that would haunt Hoover for the remainder of his life.
The US is now unintentionally helping Russia again, joining a long line of efforts to unite Europe against the power to the East.
“The result of the war on Russia, which was unleashed by the United States by means of Ukraine, is already visible. You’ve mentioned NATO’s expansion, but the key result for us and, by the way, for others is that Russia has become much stronger than it was before these developments,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in his recent address to the Doha forum. “In the early 19th century, Napoleon consolidated nearly all of Europe to attack Russia. We defeated him and became stronger after that aggression. In the mid-20th century, Hitler did the same, mobilizing most of European countries to launch aggression against Russia. He was defeated too and we became stronger after that war.”
And so it goes again. The numbers back up Lavrov’s claims, and even Western officials and media have had to admit the Russian economy is more “resilient” than expected. It’s as if the US-led West forgot that countries like India and China exist and would be more than willing to purchase Russian oil, gas, and mineral exports at a discount. This brilliant move by the US forced Russia to finally quit trying to be accepted into the western club and turn its full attention toward integration with the rest of Asia, which is steadily happening. Russian trade corridors with Asia continue to develop and see increased trade despite all the Western sanctions. Indeed, the West by repeatedly lashing out with sanctions only speeds this process along. Last year, Russia Briefing wrote the following, which is a fine summary of the situation today:
This is indicative that there are enough buyers and sellers globally ready and able to receive and transport goods back to Russia; and are increasing these trade flows even given the current sanctions that the G7 in the main have levied. Global trade, perhaps to the surprise of the West, is not reliant on the West at all. It more than has its own identity, purpose, and an increasingly active trade development space. The lesson to be noted here is that the West is being left behind.
The result of the US sanctions efforts has also been to awaken a giant on the Russian homefront. Consider the following February headline from The Guardian:
‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners.
It’s like they all forgot what happened the last time Nazis tried to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Now Russia’s economy is growing while those of US friends like Germany shrink. Analyses by S&P Global earlier this year showed how Eurozone manufacturing output keeps falling while Russia’s manufacturing sector is improving rapidly. Activity in Russia’s manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest rate in nearly 18 years in March.
What this means is that Russia is now the manufacturing power of Europe while its ally China is the dominant manufacturer in the world.
China
Let’s not forget who helped China obtain that status of world manufacturing power: US oligarchs whose finance-centric outlook on everything led to the mass offshoring of US production to the lowest cost producer and the loss of millions of good-paying jobs in the US.
If that didn’t help Beijing enough, the US sanctions on countries like Russia and Iran have pushed them into the open arms of China with Beijing saving a reported ten billion dollars last yearby purchasing crude oil from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia.
Russia is sending more natural gas to China at advantageous prices for Beijing, and China is helping fill the gaps of a wide range of products in Russia caused by Western sanctions.
And if that wasn’t enough, the US backing of Israel’s genocide in Gaza has done even more to help China. Let’s just take the example of Indonesia, which in this case can be viewed as representative of a large chunk of the global south or global majority, where public opinion has rapidly shifted against the West and more in favor of the Chinese- and Russian-led Eurasia.
Indonesia was already interconnected with China, which is an important source of foreign investment — coming in only second to Singapore — and it is also Indonesia’s largest trading partner, but look at the swing in popular opinion due to the US actions in Gaza.
From Bloomberg:
As Leo Suryadinata and Siwage Dharma Negara note, the ongoing war in Gaza has clearly turned Indonesians against US foreign policy actions. When asked if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations “were forced to align itself with one of the strategic rivals, which should it choose?”, 73% of Indonesian respondents selected China while only 27% preferred the US. This is a significant shift from 2023, when 54% of Indonesian respondents nominated China and 46% sided with the US. Beijing is sensing the winds of change. During his meetings with outgoing leader Joko Widodo Thursday, Wang denounced the US for blocking United Nations resolutions calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Not a new line for the Chinese, but their vocal support has not gone unnoticed in Southeast Asia, home to two sizeable Muslim majority nations: Indonesia and Malaysia. These countries want to see see more global leadership on an issue that has stoked outrage across their communities. Managing Indonesia’s interests against the backdrop of the US-China rivalry will be a key task for Prabowo when he takes on his new job this October.
Big picture, the relationship between Moscow and Beijing, which is coalescing into an Asian bloc makes Russia largely immune to economic warfare. The same is, of course, true of China where any effort to economically isolate would cause Western societies to unravel due to supply chain breakdowns and price shocks. The West will have no other means to take on Russia or China except for costly military options. Against the European and world manufacturing powerhouses and superior Russian weapons? Good luck with that.
The US now finds itself stuck in a doom loop in which the more it tries to thwart Eurasian integration — through sanctions, proxy wars, etc. — the tighter the defenses become. We’re already reaching a point where the offers of friendship from the US or its lackeys in Europe are not-so-politely declined. We see an increasing number of countries like Georgia and even NATO ally Turkey considering laws designed to keep the Americans and Europeans out of their internal politics.
If this trend continues and the US is largely unable to destabilize an integrated Asian landmass dominated by China and Russia from within, it will be reduced to stirring up trouble outside the fortress and hurling its proxies against the proverbial walls. These are fights the West cannot win – either on the battlefield on the economic front as both Russia and China are largely self-sufficient autarkies, and together one could argue they are fully self-sufficient.
Has the Blob noticed any of this? Does it recognize that its enemies only seem to grow stronger? It would be a major news development if that’s the case. Doubling down is more likely. As Ray McGovern wrote following Putin’s recent trip to China:
The Russia-China entente also sounds the death knell for attempts by U.S. foreign policy neophytes to drive a wedge between the two countries. The triangular relationship has become two-against-one, with serious implications, particularly for the war in Ukraine. If U.S. President Joe Biden’s foreign policy geniuses remain in denial, escalation is almost certain.
