Djordje Djordjevic
Motio ResearchThe company’s initial forecast for U.S. median household income in April 2024 is $78,238. This figure represents an increase of $67 (+0.1%) from its original median household income forecast of $20,238 in April 2024. $78,171 Until March 2024.
The company also First projection The U.S. Census Bureau’s annual estimate of median household income for calendar year 2023 will not be released until September 2024.
The 2023 values for the Census Series are projections of values released in September 2024. The Census projects nominal median household income to increase by 6.7% from $74,580 in 2022 to $79,547 in 2023, with a lower bound of $78,115 and an upper bound of $80,978.
Census real median household income is projected to increase 2.6% from $77,510 in 2022, according to the nominal census projections. In 2023, it would be $79,547 (in 2023 dollars using the Chained Consumer Price Index).
Motio Research’s monthly median household income estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau as part of the monthly population survey. The company adjusts its monthly estimates for seasonality and inflation, and presents the results in an index format, with the January 2010 median household income set at 100. screenshot This interactive chart from Motio Research shows how the index has changed from January 2010 to April 2024.
Analyst Notes
Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income to complement Motio Research’s monthly survey-based estimates. The initial estimates of median household income in April 2024 are: Alternative methodology At $77,760, this is our Original estimate: $77,761 March 2024. Our forecast for April 2024 is $478 lower than the forecast based on Motio Research’s first survey for that month.
Latest Updates in Political Calculations chart Tracking Median Household Income over the 21st Century provides trends in nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) U.S. median household income from January 2000 to April 2024. Inflation-adjusted figures are presented in constant April 2024 US dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to create Motio Research’s Household Income Index.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis made a significant downward revision to the total income estimates it uses to compile its estimates from October 2023 through March 2024. Here’s how that income data has changed from what the BEA reported a month ago.
- October 2023: -0.37%
- November 2023: -0.69%
- December 2023: -0.75%
- January 2024: -0.74%
- February 2024: -0.77%
- March 2024: -0.85%
A downward revision to total wage and salary income reported by the BEA on May 31, 2024 has widened the gap between Motio Research’s estimates and our supplemental estimates.
References
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Disposal, Monthly. Personal Income and Expenditures, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Monthly. Population.Online database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)). Last updated: May 31, 2024. Accessed: May 31, 2024.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Disposition, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Personal Income and Disposition, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Compensation of Employees, Receipt: Wages and Salaries Expenses. (Online database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)). Last updated: May 31, 2024. Accessed: May 31, 2024.
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers – (CPI-U), U.S. urban average, all items, 1982-84 = 100. Not seasonally adjusted. (Online database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)). Last updated: May 15, 2024. Accessed: May 15, 2024.
Editor’s note: The summary bullet points for this article were selected by Seeking Alpha editors.
