Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Israel’s northern border region and vowed to take “tough action” against Hezbollah, according to front-page stories in the Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel. In what some might see as a coincidence in timing, the announcement came on the same day that a Syrian shooter at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut was wounded in return fire and captured by Lebanese forces.
At 8:34am local time, small arms fire was reported near the entrance to the US Embassy. Thanks to the rapid response of the LAF, ISF and Embassy security teams, the Embassy premises and staff are safe. An investigation is ongoing and we are in close contact…
— US Embassy Beirut (@usembassybeirut) June 5, 2024
But back to the point. A few months ago, Alastair Cloake reported that Israel is politically committed to ending Hezbollah attacks on its border with Lebanon, resulting in a reported mass displacement of anywhere between 60,000 and 100,000 people. What is less widely reported is that Hezbollah is conducting these attacks to create a second mini-front in the Gaza war (if Israel makes peace with the Palestinians, the attacks will probably be reduced to their previous nuisance levels), and that Israel is shelling southern Lebanon, making life equally miserable for residents of border towns.
The forced eviction of Israeli settlers has left lasting economic and political scars. Businesses there have been closed and Israel is providing them with temporary housing. The settlers say they cannot or will not return until Hezbollah is removed from the border, which Israel takes to mean that Hezbollah will withdraw or be forced to retreat to the Litani River – something Israel never got that far in its 2006 war with Lebanon.1 From every perspective, Hezbollah is now much stronger than it was then, and Israel much weaker.2 Hezbollah leader Hussam Nasrallah said Lebanon would not cede a single inch of territory to Israel.
So there’s a bit of an out trade.
Again, when Crook first began to warn that Israel was determined to attack Lebanon to make life safe again for Lebanese settlers, Defense Minister Benny Gantz began yelling that Israel would drive Lebanon out of its border areas if necessary. From the Times of Israel in December:
War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz warned on Friday that if the international community fails to use diplomatic means to expel Hezbollah from Lebanon’s borders, Israel will be forced to expel the Hezbollah terrorist organization from Lebanon’s borders.
It should be noted that the US-Israeli negotiating idea is that Lebanon will cede their border areas as they say, which is another element of expanding trade.
But despite the continued vocalizations of displaced Israeli settlers, perhaps little has happened to date to advance their cause. One reason is that the IDF is stuck in Gaza. This highlights a second problem: They have not been as successful against Hamas as officials had expected.
But the third big problem is that Israel is very likely to suffer a bigger defeat against Hezbollah than it did in 2006. As both Scott Ritter and Klug explain, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are all organized to fight Israel and the US. They all wage war the same way: by planning/preferring intense, overwhelming but relatively short-lived conflicts with heavy air power. To that end, all three powers have built deep and extensive tunnel networks that allow them to escape Israeli and US attacks. They have also figured out how to fight effectively using large quantities of relatively cheap weapons. Klug emphasizes that they aim to fight a war of attrition that neither the US nor Israel can handle well, and to ebb and flow in intensity.
If failure to allow settlers in border towns to return home is what hurts, why doesn’t Israel act? I don’t know, but some commentators suggest that good people in Israel, especially the IDF, have warned that war with Lebanon is an extremely bad idea. The only reason Hezbollah would not welcome war is because Lebanon is in economic distress. Any war, even a relatively short one in which Hezbollah wins, would generate huge costs in terms of physical damage.
What about the hope that the US will jump in to help Israel if Lebanon comes close to winning? Many in Israel are eager for the US to get involved militarily. The fact that Israel has not (yet) soured relations with Lebanon shows Israel’s doubts about how strongly and effectively the US can intervene. The US has not been able to rein in the Houthis. US weapons stockpiles were depleted in the Ukraine war. Hezbollah’s tunnel system reportedly far exceeds that of Hamas. They also have far more rockets and missiles, some of which are more advanced.
From this perspective, things are heating up, literally. A series of recent barrages by Hezbollah have sparked wildfires in northern Israel. Israeli and Western reports have blamed Hezbollah for the escalation of tensions, but that’s not at all clear.
🔥 Israel is burning. Hezbollah is burning Israeli settlements in the north in response to Israel burning Lebanese olive trees with white phosphorus. If we burn, you burn with us pic.twitter.com/KM0ftnTwii
— Hadi (@HadiNasrallah) June 3, 2024
Israel🇮🇱 dropped American🇺🇸-made phosphorus bombs on Kfar Kila in southern Lebanon last night🇱🇧
White phosphorus burns to the bone
Israel is a pariah state. Netanyahu wants to expand the regional conflict.
Sanctions now
Arms embargo now
Now I’m in The Hague.pic.twitter.com/diMB3ZswnI— Howard Beckett (@BeckettUnite) June 4, 2024
Human Rights Watch has confirmed the use of white phosphorus munitions in attacks in southern Lebanon since October 7 (but has not confirmed any allegations of new attacks).
Rights group claims Israel dropped white phosphorus shells on Lebanese homes https://t.co/6YA3Nt5RJx
— Associated Press (@AP) June 5, 2024
The fires caused by Hezbollah attacks are intense.
BREAKING: Fire continues in Israel, 16 killed, 7 soldiers injured
Rockets fired by Hezbollah sparked fires and injured people in several settlements in northern occupied Palestine. pic.twitter.com/OLrv9UO2FT
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 4, 2024
These are the scenes of northern Palestine “Israel” today. It’s burning 🔥
Israel has been bombing Lebanon continuously for weeks and months, so Hezbollah responded with rocket fire today.
Israel did nothing to protect its own people.
Israel is a terrorist and apartheid state. pic.twitter.com/UohpuqtNMa
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) June 4, 2024
Spotlight on Israel:
In Israel, apocalyptic fires have spread rapidly and continue to burn across the north of the country after Hezbollah rockets were fired from Lebanon.
Massive fires have ravaged vast swathes of land, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate. pic.twitter.com/fsZMl7xzUv
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) June 4, 2024
Therefore, the government feels it must do something. From The Israel Times:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Wednesday that Israel was preparing a “very strong” response to attacks by Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which have significantly escalated in recent days.
“Anyone who thinks we will just sit back and do nothing while they do harm us is very mistaken,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, where thousands of residents have fled since Lebanon-based terrorist groups began near-daily attacks on Israeli communities and military bases along the border on October 8.
The prime minister’s visit came hours after firefighters confirmed they had brought under control a series of massive fires in northern Israel caused by Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks, after around 48 hours of intense fighting…
Earlier in the day, the government increased the number of reservists the IDF can call up if necessary from 300,000 to 350,000, but military sources told The Times of Israel that the move was related to the expansion of operations in the Gaza Strip, not on the northern front.
The Israel Defense Forces said the limit was raised because ongoing operations in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah had required more personnel than originally planned.
Israeli leaders have warned of further “violent action” against Hezbollah after an escalation in cross-border gunfights escalated, raising tensions and the possibility of all-out war with Lebanese militants.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the largely evacuated northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona on Wednesday and addressed the fires that have raged across much of the region over the past two days, which he said were mainly caused by Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.
“We are ready to take very strong action in the north. One way or another, we will restore security in the north,” he added.
The longtime Israeli leader’s comments came after military commander Herzi Halevi warned that a “decision moment” was fast approaching on whether it would be necessary to launch an offensive in Lebanon…
Both Hezbollah and Israel have increased the frequency and scope of attacks in recent weeks. Local leaders and residents in northern Israel have grown frustrated with the Israeli government’s inability to restore security and allow residents to return to their homes, and have criticized the government for not setting a deadline for resolving the crisis.
Hezbollah officials said they do not want to escalate tensions with Israel but will not stop their attacks as long as the conflict in Gaza continues…
Pressure is growing on the Israeli government to take stronger action against Hezbollah, and apocalyptic nighttime images of forests on fire have only deepened public fears about the deteriorating security situation in the north.
Israel has clearly overstepped the mark and feels pressured to respond forcefully. Ultra-hardliner Ben Gvir has called for war with Hezbollah. But what can Israel do to avoid self-destruction? Stay tuned.
_____
1 I heard from one YouTuber commenting on the 2006 conflict that the Israeli army got far enough into Litani, raised the flag, took some photos, and then fled.
2 This is based on the opinion of Scott Ritter, who worked extensively with the IDF in the 1990s, and who had a great deal of respect for the IDF at that time. His view since then (and I am paraphrasing) is that the IDF has become obsessed with its own mythology over time, and optimized to break Palestinian children’s arms.
