opinion
A first milestone in charting a clearer future for North American trade was reached in Mexico this week, when former Mexico City mayor and environmental engineer Claudia Scheinbaum won a landslide victory in the presidential election.
Scheinbaum, a member of the left-wing populist Morena party, has received the endorsement of outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
With the Mexican presidential election over, all that remains is the US election on November 4, 2024, and the Canadian election between now and October 2025. All three countries are parties to the CUSMA (USMCA in the US and T-MEC in Mexico) agreement, and elections in all three countries before the review date in July 2026 will add drama and uncertainty to the agreement.
Listen to Jacob Shapiro talk about the Mexican elections
While the latest version of the North American Free Trade Agreement was successfully signed on November 30, 2018, a provision to review the agreement six years after it comes into force on July 1, 2020 poses challenges at a time of rising protectionist and interventionist sentiment globally, particularly in the United States.
When the agreement was signed, Lopez Obrador, U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau were able to find common ground after extremely difficult negotiations. With Sheinbaum’s selection, it’s technically possible, but unlikely, that this will be the last change in membership.
The review will officially begin on July 1, 2026, but Canada’s former chief trade negotiator Steve Verheul told the House of Commons trade committee this week that the review process will probably begin a year before then, potentially coinciding with the last of Canada’s three elections.
With both parties pushing for tariffs and other protectionist legislative measures ahead of the U.S. elections this fall, a Biden or Trump victory would not make things any easier for Mexico or Canada when the formal review takes place. If the U.S. is aggressive in seeking new concessions, the review could be a difficult process for Canada and Mexico. It would be in both countries’ interests to promote the benefits of a pan-North American trade approach. Whether there is a Republican or Democrat in the White House, Canada and Mexico will be under pressure to closely monitor and potentially restrict trade with China.
Regarding the Canadian election, polls have shown the Conservative Party in a majority for almost a year, but Leader Pierre Poirierbre has not clearly outlined his trade policy or focus at this point in the election cycle. If elected, will the Conservatives promote market access and export expansion, or will they ride the tide of protectionism and focus on protecting domestic jobs? What is their position on C-282, a bill that aims to take supply management off the table in any trade negotiations. Is there any chance that this bill, which has reached the committee stage in the Senate, will become law?
What we know for sure is that Sheinbaum will lead Mexico into its next trade negotiations. Given her support for AMLO, her political themes will likely be similar. Six months from now, the second major leadership contest will be decided in the U.S. election. After that, we just have to wait for Canada to elect a prime minister to set the stage.
