By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Sedge Warbler, Frodsham Marsh, Cheshire, England, United Kingdom. “Song.” I’ll say!
s=”p1″>In Case You Might Miss…
(1) Many new Covid charts today, including wastewater. Stay safe out there!
(2) Kamala. Get used to it.
(3) Sleep and memory.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than a half a year to go!
Still waiting for some discernible effect from Trump’s conviction (aside from, I suppose, his national numbers rising). Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. If will be interesting to see whether the verdict in Judge Merchan’s court affects the polling, and if so, how.
* * * Trump (R): “AP-NORC poll: About half of US adults approve of Trump’s conviction, but views of him remain stable” (Associated Press). “About half of U.S. adults approve of Donald Trump’s recent felony conviction, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The survey shows some potential vulnerabilities, along with some signs of resilience in his support, as Trump tries to become the first American with a felony record to win the presidency. Less than five months before Election Day, the poll paints a picture of a nation with firmly entrenched opinions of the divisive former Republican president. Overall views of Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden remain unchanged since before the guilty verdict in Trump’s New York hush money trial. But the findings also suggest that Trump’s conviction is one more weakness among disaffected Republicans. While most people in the United States have heard about the conviction, political independents are less likely to be paying attention and more likely to have a neutral opinion of Trump’s conviction, indicating that there may still be room for the campaigns to sway them.
* * * Biden (D): “A tale of two families: Trumps hide and Bidens unite in face of criminal trials” (Independent). “President Biden’s youngest son was surrounded by family members each day of his trial until the very end…. The symbolic show of loyalty has drawn particular scrutiny for the fact that it was preceded by another headline-grabbing criminal trial: the hush money case brought against Donald Trump. For much of the former president’s six-week trial in New York, he attended the Manhattan criminal courthouse without family, surrounded only by lawyers and a rotating cast of political allies.” • then again, maybe that’s because the Trump family isn’t a tangled mass of interest-free, undocumented personal loans? As for the famous Biden empathy:
Joe Biden spent his whoe life spewing contempt for drug addicts. He boasted of how he and Strom Thurmond united to legally *mandate* a minimum of 5 years in prison for addicts with tiny amounts of crack.
This PR “empathy” bullshit the media is doing for him is sickening: https://t.co/feFZ6ZrapU
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) June 12, 2024
Biden (D): “Are Black voters deserting Biden?” (Brookings Institution). “Despite current worries among Democrats about parts of their coalition’s less than enthusiastic support for President Biden’s re-election, history suggests those concerns may not be warranted. A recent in-depth Pew survey shows that about one in five African American men say they plan on voting for Donald Trump. Among Democrats, this has led to fears that Black voters in key cities in key states like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee will cost Biden those critical states. So how dangerous is this to Biden’s prospects? First, much of the polling that purports to show Black voters moving toward Trump is based on small sample sizes. The samples from subsegments in those polls are often so small that they have a very large margin of error. Second, they aren’t as recent as survey data, from Pew, that analyze the Black vote in greater depth. During this month’s discussion of young Black voters hosted by Brookings as part of their Race, Prosperity and Inclusion Initiative, Howard University political science professor Marcus Board, Jr. said that the normal Republican Black vote in presidential contests ranges from eight percent to 15%. Surveys back up his numbers.”
* * * “If Joe Biden Isn’t the Democrats’ 2024 Candidate, Kamala Harris Will Be” (Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine). “Obviously, anyone willing to overlook Biden’s clear determination to stick it out this year can imagine Harris “stepping aside” — or being shoved aside — as well. But there’s really no evidence that the Democrats who would make this decision (the Biden-Harris loyalists who serve as convention delegates or on the Democratic National Committee) feel this way at all. And now there’s evidence that rank-and-file Democrats have the veep’s back. While a new Politico–Morning Consult poll with data about Harris shows that she shares her boss’s general election vulnerability, Democrats remain bullish on her. Seventy-four percent think she’d make a good president. By a 59 percent to 31 percent margin, they think she could win a 2024 general election. She’s stronger than Biden among the Black and Latino voters that have been stressing Democrats in recent years. And in terms of early 2028 preferences among Democrats, she’s far ahead of the competition (Harris is at 41 percent; Pete Buttigieg is at 15 percent; Newsom is at 14 percent; Whitmer is at 5 percent). Harris is already the principal voice of her administration and her party on the GOP threat to abortion rights, which will very likely become a more prominent issue as November approaches. She’s not going anywhere…. The idea that Democrats are ready to abandon her or Biden simply has no basis in verifiable fact. . Barring any clear evidence to the contrary, it’s time to forget about the fantasy tickets.” • Please fire me into the sun. Here is the only possible scenario I can think of where electing Harris President would make any sense. From C. Northcote Parkinson’s Parkinson’s Law. The situation: The leader is incompetent and therefore, at best, second rate. They are also jealous, so they will be careful not to hire anyone who is better than third rate. The organization dies from the top down. So:
“It is as if the whole institution (in this case the Democrat Party) had been sprayed with a DDT solution guaranteed to eliminate all ability found in its way. For a period of years this practice achieves the desired result. Eventually, however, individuals develop an immunity. They conceal their ability under a mask of imbecile good humor. The result is that the operatives assigned to the task of ability-elimination fail (through stupidity) to recognize ability when they see it. An individual of merit penetrates the outer defenses and begins to make his way toward the top. He wanders on, babbling about golf and , losing documents and forgetting names, and looking just like everyone else. Only when he has reached high rank (in this case, President) does (s)he suddenly throw off the mask and appear like the demon king among a crowd of pantomime fairies. With shrill screams of dismay the high executives find ability right there in the midst of them. It is too late by then to do anything about it. The damage has been done, the disease is in retreat, and full recovery is possible over the next ten years.”
Nothing in Harris’s career prepares me for this scenario.
* * * “America Could See Surge in People Not Voting” (Newsweek). “The 2024 presidential election could see an uptick in Americans not voting from the 2020 election, according to results from a recent survey. Political observers view the 2024 election as one of the most important races in modern history, as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, are set to face off in a rematch of 2020. The two have sparred over issues ranging from the economy, abortion rights, the Israel-Hamas war and democracy as election season continues to heat up. However, more Americans are considering sitting out of the election than they were at this point in 2020, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll. The poll, conducted among 1,615 registered voters between June 5 to 7, found that only 80 percent of respondents said they will definitely vote in November. This is down from the same time in 2020, when a CBS News/YouGov poll found that 83 percent of Americans were definitely going to vote. That poll was conducted among 2,200 adults from April 28 to May 1, 2020. A July 21 to 24, 2020 poll, among 2,008 adults, found that 89 percent of Americans would definitely vote.” • How odd.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Maskstravaganza
Thanks, liberal Democrats:
“There’s legitimate reasons why people wear face coverings. Covid or the flu, religious reasons, delivery drivers protecting themselves from the elements and festivities. I assure everyone we understand how complex this issue is.” @GovKathyHochulpic.twitter.com/7S3s1PMz84
— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran) June 13, 2024
Celebrity Watch
“Swifties Set Off Another ‘Swift Quake’ During Taylor Swift’s Shows in Edinburgh” (Billboard). “The British Geological Survey reported this week that seismometers around Edinburgh were triggered after mega-hyped fans at Taylor Swift‘s three Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium shows (June 7-9) last weekend registered earthquake readings up to four miles from the venue.” • Nothing on Swift’s superspreading event in Madrid. Naturally.
“Taylor Swift seemingly wipes snot on outfit during chilly Eras tour performance” (Metro UK). “In a clip captured by a fan, the 34-year-old American singer wipes her nose while striding forward on stage during an Edinburgh performance. As her hand returns to her side, there appears to be some kind of fluid hanging off her finger. Ever the professional, she then light touches her green skirt with the same hand, potentially in a bid to get rid of whatever it was.” • One hopes not Covid (and Scotland does seem to have been unseasonably cold in June) so perhaps the press has finally moved into pulling the wings off flies mode.
Lambert here: There are many new charts today. Positivity is up whereever you look. And I’m concerned with the contrast between last week’s wastewater chart and this week’s: Note the addition of New York (an airline hub, needless to say, as San Francisco, also hub). I would say that if you plan to travel over the Fourth of July weekend, take some precautions. Start planning (and stocking up) now.
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
(1) (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. The numbers in the right hand column are identical. The dots on the map are not.
(2) (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
(3) (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that last week KP.2 was all over everything like kudzu, and now it’s KP.3. If the “Nowcast” can’t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it at all?
(4) (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
(5) (Hospitalization: NY) A slight decrease followed by a return to a slight, steady increase. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
(6) (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
(7) (Walgreens) 4.3%; big jump. (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)
(8) (Cleveland) Going up.
(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
(10) (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads. I’m leaving this here for another week because I loathe them so much:
(11) Deaths low, but positivity up.
(12) Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Manufacturing: “F.A.A. Investigating How Counterfeit Titanium Got Into Boeing and Airbus Jets” (New York Times). “Some recently manufactured Boeing and Airbus jets have components made from titanium that was sold using fake documentation verifying the material’s authenticity, according to a supplier for the plane makers, raising concerns about the structural integrity of those airliners.
The falsified documents are being investigated by Spirit AeroSystems, which supplies fuselages for Boeing and wings for Airbus, as well as the Federal Aviation Administration. The investigation comes after a parts supplier found small holes in the material from corrosion. In a statement, the F.A.A. said it was investigating the scope of the problem and trying to determine the short- and long-term safety implications to planes that were made using the parts. It is unclear how many planes have parts made with the questionable material…. Spirit is trying to determine where the titanium came from, whether it meets proper standards despite its phony documentation, and whether the parts made from the material are structurally sound enough to hold up through the projected life spans of the jets, company officials said. Spirit said it was trying to determine the most efficient way to remove and replace the affected parts if that ended up being necessary.” • An industry problem: 2023, 1989, 1985.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 38 Fear (previous close: 43 Fear) (CNN). One week ago: 45 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jun 14 at 1:51:36 PM ET.
News of the Wired
“Sleep deprivation disrupts memory: here’s why” (Nature). “A crucial brain signal linked to long-term memory falters in rats when they are deprived of sleep — which might help to explain why poor sleep disrupts memory formation1. Even a night of normal slumber after a poor night’s sleep isn’t enough to fix the brain signal. These results, published today in Nature, suggest that there is a ‘critical window for memory processing,’ says Loren Frank, a neuroscientist at the University of California, San Francisco, who was not involved with the study. ‘Once you’ve lost it, you’ve lost it.’” • On the bright side, if you want to forget, now we know how!
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