by Calculated Risk June 26, 2024 10:00 AM
Census Bureau Reports New home sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 619,000.
The past three months have seen significant upward revisions.
New single-family home sales in May 2024 Seasonally adjusted annual figure: 619,000That’s 11.3 percent lower than April’s revised estimate of 698,000 and 16.5 percent lower than the May 2023 estimate of 741,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
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The first graph shows new home sales and recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are approaching pre-pandemic levels.
The second chart shows the months of supply of new homes.
Months of supply increased from 8.1 months in April to 9.3 months in May.
The highest on record was 12.2 months in January 2009. The lowest was 3.3 months in August 2020.
This is well above the upper limit of the normal range (about a 4-6 month supply is normal).
“The seasonally adjusted estimated number of new home sales at the end of May was 481,000, which equates to 9.3 months of supply at current sales rates.”
Sales fell far short of the forecast of 650,000 SAAR. Sales for the past three months have been revised upwards significantly.I’ll explain this in more detail later today.
