by Calculated Risk June 28, 2024, 8:30 AM
BEA is Personal Income and Expenditures May report:
Personal income increased by $114.1 billion in May, up 0.5% month-on-month.According to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, disposable income (DPI), calculated as personal income minus current personal taxes, increased by $94 billion, or 0.5 percent, Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $47.8 billion, or 0.2 percent..
The PCE price index fell less than 0.1%.Apart from food and energy, The PCE price index rose 0.1 percent.Real DPI increased 0.5% in May, real PCE increased 0.3%. Goods increased 0.6% and services increased 0.1%.
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of PCE Price Index Increased 2.6% Year-over-Year in MayThis was down from 2.7% year-on-year in April and also down from the most recent peak of 7.0% in June 2022.
The following chart shows real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) through May 2024 (in 2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis does not start at zero to better illustrate the changes..
Click on the graph to enlarge the image.
The dashed red line is the quarterly level of real PCE.
Personal income beat expectations and PCE fell short of expectations.
Inflation was lower than expected.
Using the two-month method to estimate real PCE growth in the second quarter, real PCE would have increased at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the second quarter of 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE would have increased at a 1.8% rate.) This suggests that PCE growth in the second quarter is on track.
