Whatever you think of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s politics, it’s hard not to acknowledge his knack for getting on the nerves of the Davos folks who run the EU. He made the most of Hungary’s six months as rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Orbán has tasked himself with a peace mission and has already visited Kiev, Moscow and Beijing. He is currently in Washington DC for the NATO summit.
Orban is My reasons Although he has sought to ultimately contribute to peace in Ukraine, he says he is simply looking for the quickest way to stop the conflict. He also claims he is the only Western leader who can talk to both Moscow and Kiev, as other leaders have repeatedly cut off bridges with Russia or simply refused to talk. He is probably right: not only do diplomats in Brussels not want to engage in dialogue, according to Politico: “Planning ways to thwart Orban’s shuttle diplomacy initiative”
Still, after the meeting, Orbán said he would brief the EU27 leaders and “provide information and recommendations on how to proceed.” It’s easy to imagine the anger this will cause in government institutions across the continent. explain:
EU diplomats don’t buy that story and are frustrated by what they see as Orban’s attempt to use his rotating council presidency to promote Hungary’s world view, which has often been at odds with the EU majority, particularly on support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. They plan to press the issue at a meeting of ambassadors on Wednesday.
Anti-democratic EU diplomats have put pressure on Orbán, and EU member states have thrown a tantrum, choosing to send junior officials to the first Council meeting in Hungary on Tuesday. This may be a sign of things to come, as there is talk of boycotting the Council meeting in Budapest, but EU diplomats have already threatened to strip Hungary of its rotating presidency, and the arguments and process are set out here.
After the first week #HU24EU Which 🇭🇺PM #Orban Although it is being actively used to ridicule, troll and spread instability about the EU, we want to remember that it is still possible to take that right away from him. #CouncilChairman & Expand and advance #Polishing One.
Thread on why and how 1.— Daniel Hegedus (@DanielHegedus82) July 8, 2024
While EU diplomats have criticized Orbán’s diplomacy, polls show that Europeans are increasingly in favor of a negotiated end to the war. The question is why other European officials won’t acknowledge that fact.
Diplomats once again want to punish Hungary for its diplomatic actions, for engaging in dialogue with one side of a European war, the same actions of the European elite. Shut down and punish Those who even take the Russian point of view into account.
It remains to be seen whether Orbán’s efforts will ultimately lead to a negotiated end to the conflict. While he has been heavily criticized both in Kiev and in Brussels, I want to focus here on comments made by other EU leaders that Orbán “does not represent the EU.”
For example, “the speed with which he has carried out this vandalism is truly puzzling,” says one diplomat. Said Politico. “To borrow Lenin’s words, Orbán is acting as a ‘useful fool’ in his attempt to undermine EU unity.”
President of the European Council Charles MichelPresident of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyenand current and future High Representatives, Josep Borrell and Kaya Karasucriticized Orban’s visit, stressing that the prime minister has no EU mandate and that the presidency does not represent the EU.
As things stand, European power structures may be dominated by Atlanticist hacks who do whatever the US says, but that doesn’t mean Orbán’s peace efforts are merely the product of one “useful idiot.”
He may not be taking part in negotiations or acting as an official EU representative, but his commitment to peace is teeth He represents the position of those in the EU who are opposed to war. If there is a problem with representativeness, it is that there is only one Orbán willing to negotiate, while government halls across the continent are filled with slavish Atlanticists who want only war.
Perhaps that is exactly why von der Leyen, Kallas, Michel and others are so concerned about Orbán’s approach: they want to maintain the illusion that the EU will forever be a strong supporter of the war effort against Russia, both in Ukraine and economically. But their own polls show that Europeans are, at best, divided over the Ukraine issue.
In many cases, clear majorities oppose the EU’s role in prolonging the conflict, and overall, support has continued to decline since euphoria faded in 2022.
Apologies in advance for the overabundance of polls, but there are many that could be interpreted as supporting Orbán’s position. These are also from sources favorable to the war effort, and so may in fact be exaggerating support. Moreover, these numbers come from an incredibly one-sided information environment, where mainstream media and politicians liken Putin to Hitler and demonize anyone who advocates dialogue.
The results are as follows Eurobarometer Spring 2024 The investigation was requested and coordinated by European Commissioner von der Leyen.
Looking more closely, we again see that the working class and less well-off, who bore the brunt of the pain of the war through inflation, falling real wages, and deindustrialization, continue to be more opposed to the war than wealthier respondents.
There is a decline in support across the board.
But the questions the committee seems most interested in are:
Let’s take a look at a poll conducted in December by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
In particular, ECFR points out next:
If a warring tribe needed a capital city, it would probably be Tallinn, the capital of the country with the highest percentage of the tribe’s population, although Poland and Denmark also put war at the top of their risk list (joint with the climate in Denmark’s case).
Not surprisingly, the next EU foreign policy chief is likely to be Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, a Russophobe, who could remind Europeans of the threat that Russia poses to the English Channel as fears of Russia fade. EuraActive:
A new survey by the Munich Security Conference (MSC) released on Monday (12 February) found that respondents fear climate change-induced migration more than the security threat posed by Russia.
European voters are also increasingly worried about “war and climate migration” and the threat of radical Islamic terrorism, according to a new Munich Security Index survey of 12,000 people in G7 countries, as well as Brazil, India, China and South Africa.
The survey, which focused on 32 perceived risks, found that these threats were considered even more important than the security threat from Moscow, which ranked fourth overall this year.
A survey last year rated Russia’s war in Ukraine as the biggest threat to global security, especially among G7 countries.
The survey found that Russia remained the biggest risk for the five G7 nations last year, but this year only the British and Japanese see it as the biggest risk. Germans see Russia as only their seventh biggest concern, and Italians place it at 12th.
The latest one is May Survey Results From the European Council on Foreign Relations:
But the questions that seem to be of most interest to the committee are:
And more More votes This really supports Orbán’s position of calling for a negotiated settlement.
Polls that the European Commission should pay attention to but probably won’t
Declining trust in institutions:
A broken political system:
Things are going wrong:
The quality of life for those who are less well off is worsening.
Among less affluent respondents, the poll found widespread dissatisfaction with the economy and little belief that the outlook will improve.
In conclusion, Orbán is unlikely to end the war, but he can remind Europeans that dialogue is possible. Perhaps that will make people wonder what other European leaders are up to. do not have As they meet with Putin, Xi Jinping and Zelensky to try to find a way to end the conflict, perhaps they will start to look at Borrell, Kallas, Beerbock, the French foreign minister and others and wonder what on earth these people do all day except repeat Washington’s talking points.
