Calculated risk: Year-on-year inflation rates: services, goods, housing

by Calculated Risk July 11, 2024 8:50 AM

Here are some indicators of inflation:

The first chart shows Fed Chairman Powell mentioning that services, excluding residential rent, were up about 8% year over year. This number had declined but has recently started to rise and is now up 4.8% year over year.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

This chart shows year-over-year price changes through May 2024 for services and services excluding shelter rent.

The second chart shows that commodity prices began to rise year-over-year in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durable goods were down -4.1% y/y as of June 2024, down from -3.7% y/y in May.

Commodities excluding food and energy products were down 1.7% year-on-year in June, unchanged from -1.7% year-on-year in May.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in housing from the CPI report (through June) and housing from the PCE report (through May).

Shelters increased 5.1% in June from a year ago.Down from 5.4% in May. Housing (PCE) rose 5.5% year-over-year in May, down slightly from 5.6% in March.

This is still catching up with personal data.

Core CPI, excluding housing, rose 1.8% year-on-year in June, down from 1.9% in May.