2:00PM Water Cooler 7/17/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, my liquid brunch gave me a case of the slows. More to come! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, El Estrecho PNat–Punta Camorro, Cádiz, Andalucía, Spain.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Attempt

“Three days after attempted assassination, Trump shooter remains an elusive enigma” (Associated Press). “Even after the FBI cracked into Thomas Matthew Crooks’ cellphone, scoured his computer, home and car, and interviewed more than 100 people, the mystery of why he opened fire on Trump’s rally Saturday, wounding the GOP nominee, remained as elusive as the moment it happened…. So far, there has been no public disclosure the shooter left any writings, suicide note, social media screed or any other indicator explaining his reasons for targeting Trump. A law enforcement official briefed on the ongoing investigation told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity that Crooks’ phone had not immediately yielded any meaningful clues related to motive, or whether he acted alone or with others.” Also: “After graduating from high school in 2022, Crooks went on to the Community College of Allegheny County, earning an associate’s degree with in May.” • All curious. AP also includes Crooks itinerary on the of the shooting, but does not, as some other sources do, citing the FBI, indicate that he purchasd a ladder there (or walked a mile to the shooting site, the warehouse).

2024

Less than four months to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP

Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.

* * *

Unelecting Biden:

The Calendar

“Scoop: How the DNC plans to run out the clock for Biden” (Axios). “The DNC’s current plan is to train state party chairs next week on how to conduct the electronic voting in a secure way. The window for voting is likely to open on July 29 and conclude by Aug. 5, according to people familiar with the matter.

If the working plan for a ‘virtual roll call’ holds, Biden just has to outlast his party’s critics for about two more weeks…. Some Biden advisers think Biden can run out the clock on the uprising within the party, as long as he survives just a few more days. Media attention already has shifted from Biden after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on Saturday. The selection of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as Trump’s running mate will further divert attention from Biden. Congressional Democrats say their concern over Biden’s candidacy has taken a backseat since Trump was shot.

Hours before the shooting in Butler, Pa., Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) paid a visit to Biden, but neither side gave much of a readout. Schumer called it a ‘good meeting.’”

Electeds

“Scoop: Biden rebellion resurfaces on Capitol Hill” (Axios). “A letter circulating among congressional Democrats argues that there is “no legal justification” for an early virtual roll call after Ohio moved its filing deadline past the date of the Democratic convention. ‘We respectfully but emphatically request that you cancel any plans for an accelerated ‘virtual roll call’ and further refrain from any extraordinary procedures that could be perceived as curtailing legitimate debate,’ it says…. Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Mike Quigley (D-Ill) and Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) told Axios they plan to sign onto the letter. Quigley and Ryan have both publicly called on Biden to withdraw. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), who told Biden he should drop out during a call with Hispanic Caucus members on Friday, will sign the letter as well, his spokesperson told Axios. One House Democrat told Axios they have received the letter and are considering signing on, and a senior aide to another House Democrat said their boss will sign on. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who told Biden on a Progressive Caucus call last Saturday that he worries the president is being shielded from bad news, has been circulating the letter to colleagues, according to one lawmaker.” • We’ll see how many sign and how soon. Dogs barking from their kennels are not very impressive.

Donors

“Megadonors Are Plotting to Change Biden’s Mind With Money. Will It Work?” (New York Times). “For ultrarich Democrats, this is the golden age of political scheming. The last three weeks since President Biden wilted during the first presidential debate have uncorked a nervous energy that has stirred almost every major Democratic donor and their advisers, turning billionaires ensconced on summer vacations into crafty political animals. They’re calling every major politician they know, encouraging them to call for Mr. Biden’s removal. They’re dangling money to members of Congress who say the right things, and withholding money from those who do not. And even the most reclusive donors are talking to reporters, sometimes on the record, about the turmoil within the party establishment.” But there’s a history here: “(E}ver since Donald J. Trump ran for president in 2016, major business-friendly Republican donors have learned the limits of their powers — unable to dislodge him from the party’s nomination that year, nor able to do so eight years later. Now, Democratic megadonors are learning some of the same lessons, especially during a time when Mr. Biden has shown some ability to raise significant money from small-dollar givers. For all their riches and ambitions, many Democratic contributors and their big-money advisers have become resigned to the notion that their influence is fairly limited, and are trying not to be naïve. A sense of powerlessness pervades.” • That’s a damn shame. I hate to think of billionaires being powerless.

* * *

Republican National Convention:

Opening Grindr at the RNC. pic.twitter.com/BhxoOai7GT https://t.co/mRI7dUUOwq

— primordial soup kitchen (@fernbirg) July 16, 2024

Not that there’s anything wrong with that….

* * *

Trump (R): “‘A Different Donald Trump’ Beams as Rivals Become ‘Converts’” (RealClearPolitics). “(I)f there is one thing Trump has notably not done this week, it is gloat. He has said comparatively little since the attempt on his life Saturday, exuding a gracious silence – perhaps even a magnanimous stoicism. A source who spoke with the former president at length the day after he dodged an assassin’s bullet reported talking to ‘a different Donald Trump, but in the best way possible.’ Granted anonymity to speak freely, this individual, who has worked closely with Trump for nearly a decade, described a ‘weirdly counterintuitive’ phenomenon whereby ‘he almost dies, he miraculously survives, and it becomes even less about him.’ Perhaps that explains the last-minute invitation to Nikki Haley. She was not originally slated to speak at the RNC, but after the assassination attempt, the Trump campaign asked her to come speak. It was simultaneously an attempt at party and national unity, an overture made more remarkable considering the sheer bitterness of their rivalry…. But all now seems forgiven, or at least forgotten. At this convention, things just feel altered, said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. ‘And it feels different, which means people are hearing something different,’ he told RCP. ‘That hasn’t happened for years.’ What changed among the Republican faithful? ‘Their hero was almost taken away from them,’ he replied, an occurrence that ‘humanized Trump and humbled his supporters.’ The prize for good behavior may very well be a landslide, the famous pollster continued. ‘If Trump can get through a day without attacking her, that’s the secret ingredient for the rest of this campaign,’ he said. ‘Add Haley voters to Trump’s total, and he is unbeatable.’” • If Trump manages to morph from a Heel to a Face, that would be remarkable. Even if this is only the party line, it’s still remarkable!

Trump (R): “In Private Speech, J.D. Vance Said the “Devil Is Real” and Praised Alex Jones as a Truth-Teller” (ProPublica). “Sen. J.D. Vance, whom Donald Trump named as his vice presidential running mate Monday, told a group of influential young conservatives in a closed-door speech in 2021 that they should stand up for ‘nonconventional people’ who speak truth, such as Infowars founder Alex Jones. ‘If you listen to Rachel Maddow every night, the basic worldview that you have is that MAGA grandmas who have family dinners on Sunday and bake apple pies for their family are about to start a violent insurrection against this country,” Vance said. “But if you listen to Alex Jones every day, you would believe that a transnational financial elite controls things in our country, that they hate our society, and oh, by the way, a lot of them are probably sex perverts too.’ Vance went on, ‘Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, that’s actually a hell of a lot more true than Rachel Maddow’s view of society.’” Where’s the lie? More: “He said that every person in attendance for his speech believed ‘something that’s a little crazy.’ In his case, he said, ‘I believe the devil is real and that he works terrible things in our society. That’s a crazy conspiracy theory to a lot of very well-educated people in this country right now.’ Vance made these remarks at a September 2021 gathering of the Teneo Network, an invitation-only group of young conservatives that counts elected officials, pro athletes, financial executives and media figures among its members. Vance joined Teneo six years ago. ProPublica and Documented obtained a video recording of his 30-minute speech and question-and-answer session, which has not been previously reported.” • I’m going to let this link stand in for a deluge of Democrat oppo on Vance that’s drowning my timeline, most of it not very interesting (and less interesting than the reviews of Hillbilly Elegy. It’s interesting that both Chris Arnade’s Dignity (reviewed at NC here) came out in roughly the same time frame, yet Vance was annointed the working class whisperer, presumbly because he went to Yale and then into finance. IMNSHO, Arnade’s is the better, more humane, book, and far more respectful of the working class).

* * *

“US Vice President Harris, Vance speak as debate date in question” (Reuters). “U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has asked former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, to join an Aug. 13 debate hosted by CBS, a Biden-Harris campaign official said on Tuesday…. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Biden campaign did not comment. The Democratic vice president had previously accepted terms for a CBS (PARA.O), opens new tab debate on either July 23 or Aug. 13, while Trump’s campaign had sought a debate on Fox News that President Joe Biden’s camp had said they would not accept. The July date for a CBS debate is now off the table, according to a person familiar with the matter.” • The August 13 date is before the Democrat National Convention starting August 19, presenting the faint possibility that a “Harris for President” balloon could be inflated if she does very well against Vance. She was a terrible campaigner in the 2020 election, but a good debater (“‘That little girl was me’: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden spar over desegregation at Democratic debate“; “Kamala Harris’ 2020 campaign now selling ‘That Little Girl Was Me’ T-shirts following viral exchange with Joe Biden“). Or her staff prepared her well, not necessarily a given.

* * *

“Early voting dates, 2024” (BallotPedia). For reference, let me print this again, revised for the current list of swing states:

Given that one wishes to influence early voting in Virginia, an “October Surprise” should happen in early September. Arizona and Georgia, late September. (Of course, early voters being more like to be committed partisans — “I’ve seen enough!” — a “surprise” might not influence them at all. Presumably all this is being gamed out in some back room.)

* * *

“Billionaires Take Sides as Turbulent Presidential Race Heats Up” (Bloomberg). “The big fundraising arms of the campaigns and parties plus some key super PACs filed their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission on Monday. Here’s how they stack up: Biden and the Democratic Party raised $263 million in the second quarter and had $240 million cash on hand.Future Forward PAC, his allied super PAC, next reports on Saturday. Though out-raised in the quarter, Biden seemed to be stemming the tide in June, when he raised $127 million to Trump’s $112 million. He held a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles with former President Barack Obama that month, and raked in big donations from filmmaker JJ Abrams and actress Julia Roberts. Real estate investor Wayne Jordan, philanthropist Quinn Delaney and Philip Munger, the son of Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, the late Charles Munger, also gave in June. The big Democratic super PACs that back Biden, including Future Forward PAC and American Bridge, won’t report until Saturday…. Trump and the RNC raised $331 million in May, but did not disclose total cash on hand.Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC next reports on Saturday. Following his guilty verdict on charges of falsifying business records to conceal hush-money payments to an adult film star, Trump enjoyed a fundraising boom. In addition to the millions raised online, Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, private equity veteran John Childs and Chamath Palihapitiya of Social+Capital Partnership LLC were among the financial industry figures who wrote six-figure checks for Trump’s campaign and the GOP the day after the verdict.” • Of course, this doesn’t take into account the efforts of the Committee to Unelect President Biden….

* * *

“Exclusive-Four in five Americans fear country is sliding into chaos, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds” (Reuters). Post-assasination: “80% of voters – including similar shares of Democrats and Republicans – said they agreed with a statement that ‘the country is spiraling out of the control.’ The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,202 U.S. adults nationwide, including 992 registered voters.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

(1) (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.

(2) (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

(3) (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.

(4) (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

(5) (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)

(6) (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.

(7) (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)

(8) (Cleveland) Still going up!

(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

(10) (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

(11) Deaths low, but positivity up.

(12) Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production MoM” (Trading Economics). “Industrial production in the US rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier in June 2024, more than market expectations of a 0.3 percent increase. Manufacturing output, which makes up 78% of total production, advanced 0.4 percent, compared with market forecast of a 0.2 percent increase. Also, mining output went up 0.3 percent and the output of utilities increased 2.8 percent. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.8 percent in June, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2023) average.”

Housing: “United States Housing Starts” (Trading Economics). “Housing starts in the US rose by 3% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 1,314,000 in June of 2024, rebounding from the revised 4.6% decline in the previous month and firmly above market expectations of 1,300,000 starts. The growth was carried by a 22% surge in starts of buildings with 5 units or more, totaling an annual rate of 360,000. This offset a 2.2% drop in single-unit starts, totaling a rate of 980,000. Among different parts of the country, starts soared in the Northeast (34.4% to 121,000) and the Midwest (26.8% to 194,000), while dropping in the West (-6.1% to 306,000) and the South (-1.7% to 732,000).”

Tech: “Does Generative AI Facilitate Investor Trading? Evidence from ChatGPT Outages” (PDF) (SSRN). “In this paper, we use ChatGPT outages to investigate whether investors rely on generative artificial intelligence (GAI) to perform trading-related tasks and the associated impact on stock price informativeness. We first document a significant decline in stock trading volume during ChatGPT outages and find that the effect is stronger for firms with corporate news released immediately before or during the outages. We further document similar declines in the shortrun price impact, return variance, and bid-ask spreads, consistent with a reduction in informed trading during the outage periods. Lastly, we use trading volume changes during outages to construct a firm-level measure of the intensity of GAI-assisted trading and provide early evidence of a positive effect of GAI-assisted trading on long-run stock price informativeness. Overall, our findings contribute to the debate on the potential effects of AI trading models on financial market stability.” • Hmm. I don’t play the ponies, but those who do may find this interesting. Readers?

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 54 Neutral (previous close: 63 Greed) (CNN). One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 17 at 1:47:37 PM ET.

News of the Wired

“The Last Avant-Garde” (Los Angeles Review of Books). “(Dominique Routhier’s) With and Against is part of a recent flurry of books urging a reassessment of the would-be revolutionary movement known as the Situationist International (SI)…. Any valid take on the SI has to view them as a logical next step in a lineage that reaches back at least to the Dada movement and evolved through Surrealism, Russian Futurism and Constructivism, Bauhaus, and the Lettrism movement, from which many of SI’s leading members emerged. All, in their own way, explicitly defined revolution as a breakdown in the barriers between life and work on one hand and fully liberated human creativity on the other…. If the spectacle has wormed its way into our lives and consciousness more than the situationists ever could have anticipated, though, then it is going to require far more hard thinking and sweat to keep running. The recuperation and atrophy of modes and spaces that would allow people to push back is real, but the ability to refuse remains. …. Plenty already know that technology won’t save us. The question of what will remains.” • See especially Guy Debord’s 1967 fun and easy Society of the Spectacle.

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Desert Dog:

Desert Dog writes: “Waiting for a puff of wind.” As are we all!

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