Hi, Yves. Net-zero is still an insufficient goal to prevent serious climate degradation. And yet governments seem unable to even meet these targets. Their attitude towards AI says it all: if they were serious about protecting the planet, they would impose strict sanctions on energy-intensive activities like AI with questionable social benefits.
Article by Irina Slav, a writer for Oilprice.com who has been writing about the oil and gas industry for over 10 years. Oil prices
- The net-zero transition targets so proudly touted in Europe, the UK and the US are proving much harder to achieve than expected.
- Euronews: The EU’s three largest economies, Italy, France and Germany, are failing to meet EU targets.
- Rhodium Group: The United States will not be able to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
Governments have pledged billions, and potentially trillions, of dollars across initiatives, projects and industries to drive the push towards a net-zero emissions future. But the transition goals so proudly touted in Europe, the UK and the US are proving harder to achieve than expected.
Earlier this month, Euronews report The EU’s three largest economies – Italy, France and Germany – have been warned that they will miss EU targets and will be penalised for it. The warning, issued by climate NGO Transport and Environment, indicates that Germany will miss its 40% emissions reduction target by 2030 by even 10%. And this is Germany, which is probably the most ambitious of all EU member states when it comes to its energy transition efforts.
Meanwhile, in the UK, energy consultancies are also warning that the country is on a path to failing to meet its climate targets. The country will get 44% of its electricity from wind and solar by 2030, according to Cornwall Insight. But this is far from the amount of electricity the UK will need to generate from wind and solar to meet its net-zero pledge by 2030, according to Cornwall Insight. The consultancy said that the amount Quote According to the Financial Times, the figure is 67%.
The latest red flag for the transition comes from the United States, where reality is falling short of expectations: According to an analysis by the Rhodium Group, a left-leaning consultancy specializing in energy and environmental protection, the United States will not be able to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 50% compared to 2005 levels by 2030, the Biden administration’s stated goal.
Instead, the think tank estimated that emissions could fall by 32% to 43% by 2030 but accelerate after that, reaching 55% by 2035, the Financial Times reported. Apparently, this isn’t enough, because “it doesn’t put us on a long-term trajectory to decarbonization,” according to Ben King, associate director of the consultancy’s energy and climate practice, according to the paper.
There seems to be a disconnect between climate goals and reality. Indeed, this disconnect has characterized the transition effort, with governments making ever more ambitious commitments regardless of what is possible within the physical constraints of the world we live in. Most climate plans seem to ignore these physical constraints, and progress towards achieving the goals has been suboptimal. This is exactly what the above analysis shows: the physical world, free markets and the energy transition are, at the moment, practically incompatible.
Take Germany. Having already spent billions on the transition and continuing to spend more, the country is realising it cannot continue this way forever. Earlier this month, Reports It came days after it emerged that the German government plans to change the rules of its subsidy program, offering wind and solar developers upfront subsidies rather than minimum price guarantees. Cut with an ax Even the current guaranteed minimum price is falling because of negative electricity prices. Why negative prices? Excessive wind and solar power production.
Then there’s the UK: According to the Rhodium Group and most other climate media, the country needs to massively accelerate wind and solar construction to reach its net-zero target, but this stance seems to overlook some facts, such as the availability of raw materials and construction costs, factors unrelated to the regulatory regime that the new Labour government has promised to change to facilitate the growth of wind and solar.
Next, the case of the United States. The Inflation Control Act became the largest transition tool created by the US government, offering hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to companies willing to carry out the transition work domestically. The IRA certainly attracted many companies, but it did not make their operations more attractive to end consumers. Local opposition to the installation of wind and solar power plants On the riseDemand for EVs Slow downAnd federal agencies lost the right to create rules and regulations based on their own interpretation of the law, known as Chevron deference.
Perhaps the most problematic thing about the current transition is that there is very little governments can do to turn it around. They can relax permitting regulations to allow more wind and solar to be built, but only until and unless opposition from local communities grows, which will grow as these installations encroach on farmland. They can continue to subsidize EV manufacturers, but only up to a point. In some countries, such as Germany, that limit has already been reached and subsidies have been phased out, as have minimum electricity tariff guarantees. Subsidies to loss-making companies will continue for a while, but not forever.
