2:00PM Water Cooler 8/6/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

Readers have been so happy with the mockingbirds I’m going to keep doing them. Now entering Day Two of Week Three!

Long-tailed Mockingbird, Quebrada El Limón (Valqui E4.2), Piura, Peru.

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Best Olympic story.
2. Walz is Kamala’s VP choice.
3. Climate tipping points unpredictable.
4. Andy Warhol’s lost Amiga Art.

Look for the Helpers

Trump Assassination Attempt

“The Kill Box: Investigating the Trump Assassination, Benny Johnson With Reps. Eli Crane and Cory Mills” (RealClearPolitics). “Kill box” is a phrase invented by the media personality, Johnson, and not by either of the two representatives, both of whom were snipers (!!). This caught my eye: “REP. ELI CRANE: When you get out on that site, if you have even an iota of training on security, long-distance shooting, and you get on that property, I mean, you see a water tower that covers the entire premises, basically you start asking yourself, ‘Why the hell wasn’t anybody up on that water tower?’” Johnson concludes: “We (I don’t thinik the two reps would agree with that, and would not use this language) have established beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump was intentionally put into the kill box on July 13th. So who’s responsible for this fatal security plan? Who cut the communication lines? Who kept Trump on stage, and who will be held criminally liable for these deadly decisions? We have so many questions after our investigation of the assassination site, but one thing is crystal clear: there are forces that wanted President Trump dead. The obscene security failures created the conditions for a live TV execution. These failures are unforgivable and have inspired regular Americans to ask questions like this: Was there a stand-down order issued? Was there a conspiracy to kill President Trump? The head of the Secret Service resigned in disgrace after this question, but her replacement continues the same failed policies that sent a bullet through Trump’s head.” • Not to minimize, but not (no doubt the regreat of some) “through his head.”

–>

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Drops for Trump across the board, including a 2.5% drop nationally (almost outside the margin of error, ha ha), and a blue triangle on the mao for the first time.

* * *

Biden Defenestration:

‘Presidential Agonistes, Half a Century Apart” (Michael Austin, RealClearPolitics). “The summers of 1974 and 2024 are political theater of the highest kind, though the former had at least the semblance of a civics lesson, while the latter is pure bare-knuckle politics. They are also a reminder, in our digital and cable news age, that . If Donald Trump’s resurgence, even after being written off in 2020, is due to his dominating his party, both Richard Nixon’s and Joe Biden’s demise was due to having been abandoned by theirs.”

* * *

The Campaign Trail:

* * *

The VP choice:

Kamala (D): “Tim Walz. Hell yeah.” (Dave Karpf, Now and Then). “Walz’s biography reads like a character ripped from the Aaron Sorkin extended universe. Small town boy from Nebraska, couple decades of military service, high school history teacher, part-time high school football coach who took the team to the state championship… went on to serve five terms in Congress as a Democrat in a conservative district, then became Governor and, with a small Democratic majority in the statehouse, signed a huge slate of progressive initiatives into law. But he doesn’t talk like a safe, scripted centrist. The guy has spent the past few weeks pitching a comms perfect-game. Every media interview has been clipped and shared on social media. He rolled out the ‘Trump and Vance are just plain weird‘ attack line. Listen to the guy on Ezra Klein’s podcast: he manufactures aww shucks midwestern-dad energy and converts it into body blows against his opponents. This is one of the interesting points about social media this election cycle. Twitter and Facebook aren’t anything like they once were. TikTok is mostly for young people, but the other social networks are still trying to emulate TikTok. Which means, effectively, that .” • I must confess that the video where Walz allowed his daughter to inveigle him into going on a heartstopping ride at the State Fair (or whichever fair) made me sit up and take notice. Very fresh. And then along came the school lunches, and getting that done with a one-vote (?) majority (quite in contrast to national Democrat whinging). A clip:

If he’s picked he should do clips like this every day for America. pic.twitter.com/A0wrt2qqSk

— Albie🩸🦷🤝🥥🌴 (@AlbieBrian) August 5, 2024

Kamala (D):

In one of the most improbable runs in recent political history, Tim Walz is the VP nominee. I wrote about why he was selected. I don’t think it was just “weird”; his legislative record in 2023 in Minnesota mirrors what Kamala Harris wants to get done:https://t.co/2pAJoY0IS8

— David Dayen (@ddayen) August 6, 2024

I don’t agree with this at all. First, we don’t know what Kamala wants to get done:

Kamala Harris’s campaign page has no policy positions. There’s nothing about the first 100 days. It’s just PR fluff pieces on her and Waltz, and the many ways to donate. I’ve never seen a presidential campaign like this. How are you running for president with no platform? pic.twitter.com/iARlP2kLzy

— AshleyStevens (@The_Acumen) August 6, 2024

(Of course, even if there were a platform, Kamala could be lying, as Democrats did continuously over Biden’s cognitive deterioration).

Second, making the assumption that Walz is a progressive instead of just another liberal (see here), Democrats have a long history of embracing progressives just before stabbing them in the back (see under the Biden Transition Team).

Third, personnel is policy. And Kamala has a lot of people in her circle who would look askance at, say, free school lunches without complex eligibility requirements. Picking one of many examples:

Charles Phillips is also an advisor to NYC mayor Eric Adams and ran his mayoral tech transition. Nightmare. https://t.co/mR6Z7ybGVY

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) August 6, 2024

Finally — and I don’t hate Walz — if he’s everything we’re being told he is, why in the name of all that is holy isn’t he at the top of the ticket? Maybe if the Democrats hadn’t wired the primaries for Biden (sorry, that name again?) he would be.

Kamala (D): “Walz’s handling of BLM riots, strict COVID rules under microscope after Harris VP pick” (FOX). “Vice President Kamala Harris’ pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as a running mate will put the Democratic governor’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread riots in the state back in the national spotlight. ‘(H)e’s been a disaster for Minnesota and is by far the most partisan governor that I can remember having,’ Minnesota GOP Chairman David Hann told Fox News Digital last week. ‘Going back to 2020, certainly – he did nothing to try to stop the riots going on in Minneapolis. I think he was fearful of alienating his ‘progressive’ base, who were supporting the riots. Kamala Harris was raising money for the rioters.” And: “Meanwhile, critics point to Walz’s memorandum mandating indoor masking during the coronavirus pandemic, which he enacted in 2020 and ended in 2021. The Upper Midwest Law Center sued, calling the mandate unconstitutional, but an appellate court ultimately sided with Walz.” • Different framing:

Walz is absolutely unafraid to govern. https://t.co/9b3ZQrBvdR

— Zephyr Teachout (@ZephyrTeachout) August 6, 2024

“Unafraid to govern” (sounds like Stoller).

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris chooses Tim Walz as running mate in US presidential election” (Financial Times). Walz after a clip from 2021 went viral, in which Vance warned the US was being run by “a bunch of childless cat ladies”: “‘My God, they went after cat people — good luck with that. Turn on the internet and see what cat people do when you go after ‘em. It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad,’ Walz said in one MSNBC appearance.” • Walz can stick the shiv in. I like that.

* * *

Walz and Covid:

Kamala (D): “‘Buckle it up’: Walz orders MN to ‘stay at home’ to curb virus spread” (MPR News) (March 25, 2020 5:30 AM). “Gov. Tim Walz has ordered Minnesotans to stay at home for two weeks, at least, as part of the state’s ongoing efforts to control the spread of the coronavirus and COVID-19 disease. The order isn’t a complete lockdown and it allows essential activities and services to continue, Walz said. People will be allowed to exercise outdoors and visit the grocery store, for example, with proper social distancing. ‘Buckle it up for a few more weeks,’ the governor said. The order takes effect Saturday and lasts through April 10. Walz said it’s impossible to lessen the number of Minnesotans who will become infected with COVID-19, but the stay-home order is intended to push out the time of peak infections so there are intensive care unit beds available for those who need it. ‘The thing that Minnesota is going to do is ensure if you need an ICU, it’s there,’ Walz told the state in a livestreamed address Wednesday.” • Ah yes. “Flatten the curve.” We all did that, and then the PMC discovered they could work from home and have servants bring them stuff, at which point they threw the working class under the bus. Not Walz’s fault, but…

Kamala (D): “As cases fall and vaccination ramps up, Gov. Walz adjusts COVID-19 mitigation measures” (mpls downtown council) (March 12, 2021). “‘Minnesotans should continue to take simple steps to protect the progress we’ve made, but the data shows that we are beating COVID-19,’ said Governor Walz. ‘Our vaccine rollout is leading the nation, the most vulnerable Minnesotans are getting the shot, and it is becoming increasingly more safe to return to our daily lives. The sun is shining brighter.’ As vaccines have an impact, life is slowly returning to normal. In February, Governor Walz announced a plan to return more students to the classroom, and 90 percent of schools now offer in-person learning, while 60 percent of teachers have been vaccinated. Minnesota is weeks ahead of schedule on vaccinations. Nearly 1.2 million Minnesotans and more than 70 percent of seniors have gotten a shot. ‘There are more good days now than bad days,’ said Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan.” • Handy chart (and I love the file name: reanimation_guidelines_210312.png):

Shows a prime difficulty of lockdowns: They were organized by lines of business (churches, bars, etc.) instead of by ventilation (and surely a regulatory formula could have been worked out, even in 2020). Of course, in 2021, as today, the public health establishment was dug in against airborne transmission, so that wasn’t “politically feasible” as we say.

Kamala (D): “Walz: Jensen’s COVID-19 stance is ‘killing people’” (Minnesota Reformer) (August 10, 2022). “‘Putting out false information around COVID, yourself not being vaccinated and telling others (not) to — it’s killing people,’ Walz told MPR News editor Mike Mulcahy. ‘I think giving a platform for that … that’s not who we are.’ … .In the early days of the pandemic, (his gubernatorial opponent Scott Jensen) called COVID-19 a “mild four-day respiratory illness which poses little risk to more than 95% of people.’” • Rhetorically, that’s the stuff to give the troops.

Lambert here: Maybe Covid will finally enter the political arena through the back door. From my distinctly minority perspective, neither party has a record they can coherently defend. Trump instituted Operation Warp Speed (OWS), which if it had included sterilizing nasal vaccines, would have been seen as a moonshot, instead of the technical triumph it was. Unfortunately, Trump’s base is disportionately anti-vax, so he can’t take credit for vax, and the Democrats won’t give it to him. Further, Trump modeled masking by denigrating it, when it ought at the very least to have been a fallback position. Meanwhile, Biden took the great gift that Trump gave him, and squandered it (which their base prevents the Republicans from saying): Rather than pursue a layered strategy that included vax, with a second OWS for mitigation, Biden bet the farm on vax, most especially with vaccine mandates. Unfortunately, the vaccines didn’t prevent transmission, safety studies were hardly optimal, and we ended up with wave after wave of mass infection while CDC continued Trump’s work by simultaneously ruining non-pharmaceutical interventions. Across-the-board elite denial that Covid was even a problem, combined with social norming has worked for awhile, but reality does seem to be breaking through (give it a couple more years). How is Biden’s strategy defensible? At least the Republican messaging about freedom — vax bad, no mandates, no masking — is coherent. What do Democrats have in response? “We did our best”? They didn’t!

* * *

Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris earns majority of Democratic roll call votes, achieving historic presidential nominatio” (ABC). • Historic in that Harris is the first candidate ever to run for President whle never winning a single primary running for President.

Kamala (D): “The Crucial Week Is Here. Can Kamala Keep This Crazy Enthusiasm Going?” (Michael Tomasky, The New Republic). Extended liberalgasm, oh good. “It was impossible to predict the explosion ((!!)) of relief, enthusiasm, and sense of mission that has greeted Kamala Harris’s presumptive—and now, as of Friday, official—nomination for president. I choose those three descriptors with special care because each represents a critical component of a political phenomenon that has been greater than any of us—most definitely including Donald Trump—could have imagined.” Actually, the key descriptor is “explosion.” More: “This third week of the Harris candidacy is a crucial one. The initial burst of excitement is fading, a little, which is inevitable. The veep announcement and whistle-stop tour are well timed to regenerate excitement and keep the money rolling in. Non-MAGA America is united and energized. The mission this week is to keep it that way.” • Tomasky seems to believe that the Democrats have what used to be called a “natural majority” (“Non-MAGA America”). For good or ill, they don’t–

Kamala (D): “Is Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the polls?” (VOX). “Kamala Harris entered the presidential race a little over two weeks ago as an underdog. Since then, Democrats’ vibes have been fantastic — and Harris’s polling has gotten better. But it hasn’t improved as much as you might think. At least not yet. Per polls, Trump is no longer the clear favorite to win. But Harris hasn’t taken a clear lead either. Polling, particularly in swing states, suggests an extremely close race that could go either way.” • IOW, Non-MAGA America is half the country, give or take.

Kamala (D): “” (Lee Fang). “Even in this dynamic, there are two Kamalas. In her first bid for office, Harris leaned into her Indian background. She introduced herself to the local press as ‘Kamala Devi Harris,’ using her full name. ‘In terms of Indian culture, my name represents the beautiful lotus flower,’ she said at one of her first campaign events. ‘I grew up with a strong Indian culture,’ she told Asian Week in 2003. By the time she ran for the presidency in 2019, the mention of her Indian background had been removed from her campaign. An archive of her website shows that her biography listed her as the ‘second African American woman in history to be elected to the U.S. Senate.’ There was no hint of her South Asian lineage.” • Chameleon…

* * *

Trump (R): “At Trump rally in Atlanta, Black attendees say Kamala Harris playing ‘race card’ for votes” (USA Today). ” When Vice President Kamala Harris entered the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump tried to dismiss her identity as the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent on a major party ticket by labeling her a “DEI hire,” suggesting that her historic achievements are due to her race and gender. The talking point seemed to be sticking with Trump supporters at a rally in Atlanta on Saturday, even among those who identified as people of color. Andrea Smith, a Black woman who volunteers with the Trump campaign and is running for state representative in Georgia’s District 41 north of Atlanta, asserted that Democrats were leaning into identity politics to win the election.” • Here is a fine example–

Trump (R): ‘‘Ruthless’: How Kamala Harris Won Her First Race” (Politico) (2019). “Harris vaulted past Fazio and into the runoff, where she defeated Hallinan in a landslide and became the state’s first African-American district attorney. Not only did she cut into Hallinan’s progressive base—especially with black and female voters—but she also carried more conservative areas of the city, garnering votes that had gone to Fazio. The campaign’s closing argument was, Prozan said, ‘one of the most effective mail pieces that we did.’ The words were familiar and prosaic: ‘It’s time for a change.’ The images told the story. Harris’ staff had gone to the library and retrieved photographs of more than a century’s worth of San Francisco’s district attorneys, every one from 1900 to 2003. They were all white men.” • Of course, the “change” (where have I heard that before?) it was “time for”… Not quite perhaps all that one might have hoped for. The mailer:

So if we hear anything like “never played the race card”… No.

* * *

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. grapples with torrent of negative headlines” (The Hill). “Democratic groups have taken the lead in attacking Kennedy, with the White House staying out of the mix. The DNC has been at the forefront of fighting back against what party officials see as a possible threat to President Biden and now Vice President Harris’s candidacy against former President Trump. Other liberal outfits have also joined in their effort, with several organizations holding conference calls to outline his mounting flaws.” • Kennedy responds:

I see the logic. But it’s a big ask.

Kennedy (I): “Dead bear another strange twist in RFK Jr’s faltering campaign” (BBC). “In a move to get ahead of a lengthy profile published on Monday in the New Yorker magazine, he released a video where he discusses an accident involving a bear cub a decade ago – and the unlikely series of events that followed.” • Hilarity ensues:

How NYC local news covered the dead bear RFK Jr put into Central Park ten years ago 😬👀 https://t.co/J25gDeLQ1Q pic.twitter.com/nJio51Li3R

— Luther Lowe (@lutherlowe) August 4, 2024

Peter Luger has a butcher shop. Why not put the bear in the fridge?

Kennedy (I):

Some believe raw milk is a nutrient-rich superfood, while others, like The New York Times, label it a health hazard promoted by the right wing. Imagine that, raw milk, a right wing thing. So, which is it?

We dove deep into the history of raw milk, speaking with leading… pic.twitter.com/501ASZBUcE

— Nicole Shanahan (@NicoleShanahan) August 3, 2024

Sigh.

Spook Country

“EXCLUSIVE – Federal Air Marshal Whistleblowers Report Tulsi Gabbard Actively Under Surveillance via Quiet Skies Program” (UncoveredDC). This article is noticeable light on actual documentation. Still, since the story is out there: “In an exclusive breaking story, several Federal Air Marshal whistleblowers have come forward with information showing that former U.S. Representative and Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard is currently enrolled in the Quiet Skies program. Quiet Skies is a TSA surveillance program with its own compartmentalized suspected terrorist watchlist. It is the same program being weaponized against J6 defendants and their families. Quiet Skies is allegedly used to protect traveling Americans from suspected domestic terrorists…. For what the Federal Government calls national security reasons, an individual is enrolled in the program without knowledge. Teams of Federal Air Marshals are assigned to individuals, following and tracking them from when they enter the airport and then on all their flights and transits until they reach their destination. Enrolled individuals usually have a Quad S (SSSS) on the bottom right-hand corner of their boarding passes, but not always. They are often flagged for extra searches, frequently so lengthy that they miss their flights.” • Hmm. In case you get an SSSS, here’s more.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Hollywood Loves Drama Of Kamala Harris’ Veepstakes Decision, But Has A Clear Favorite” (Deadline). “‘This is like a mini-primary for the second spot, with one vote that matters,’ a producer with deep Democratic donor ties told Deadline. ‘Harris can do no wrong right now, so whoever she picks people will get behind,’ he went on to say.” • A primary with one vote is nothing like a primary, at least not a democratic one. What’s wrong with these people?

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Maskstravaganza

“Are You Serious? Covid-19 Hasn’t Gone Away?” (John Snow Project). “Instead of blithe nihilism and the abandonment of principles of public health that have advanced human society for centuries, governments could instruct their public health and regulatory agencies to insist on cleaner air policies, mandating air quality that protects human health, in the same way we mandate water quality. Malaria prevention is not perfect, but that doesn’t stop us using every possible tool at our disposal to minimize the impact of the disease around the world. Many engineers have decried the idea of needing a random trial to prove physics, but a Norwegian team did one anyway, examining whether surgical masks help prevent infection by respiratory viruses.They found surgical masks were 30% effective at reducing symptoms of respiratory infection17. This is no surprise. It’s long been established that surgical masks have a minor impact on airborne infection control, but they aren’t worn by anyone who is serious about avoiding SARS-CoV-2 or any other respiratory pathogen. A 2008 UK Health and Safety Executive evaluation demonstrated that surgical masks provide a 6-fold reduction against aerosolized virus, while respirator masks provide at least a 100-fold reduction18. Perhaps one of the biggest calamities of the COVID-19 pandemic was robbing people of one of the most effective forms of protection: respirator masks. Many people believe masks don’t work, or if they do that they primarily protect others from infection and don’t protect the wearer. This belief is completely unfounded and wholly wrong. Respirators have long been used to protect people working with some of the most dangerous pathogens imaginable, and FFP3/N99 respirators have been shown to offer up to 100% protection against SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare settings19. Imagine how many lives might have been saved and how many cases of Long Covid could have been avoided globally if people had been told that a well fitted mask of the correct grade (N95/FFP2 or higher) can offer complete protection against infection. We don’t need a magic bullet to solve the problem of COVID-19.” • Say what you will for blithe nihilism, at least it’s an ethos.

–>

Sequelae: Covid

Big if true:

This study is very significant—it directly compares SARS2 virus spike with vaccine spike—which is altered from the viral sequence to stabilize the pre-fusion form.

Virus spike fuses heart cells—while vaccine spike does not. https://t.co/oqwQRh6990

— Lee Altenberg, Ph.D. 🇺🇸 (@AltenbergLee) August 6, 2024

I read the article, but can’t penetrate the prose. Perhaps an expert reader will oblige.

Celebrity Watch

We’ll always have Paris:

Indeed.https://t.co/hdEGCouIFr

— Arturo Portnoy (@portna) August 5, 2024

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Ka-ching.

(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

(10) (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.

(11) Deaths low, but positivity up.

(12) Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Logistics: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” (Trading Economics). “The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US increased to 56.5 in July 2024, the highest in four months, compared to 55.3 in June, and marking eight consecutive months of expansion in the logistics sector. Transportation continued its recovery, as Transportation Prices went up (+2.8 to 63.8, the highest since May of 2022) and Transportation Capacity expanded slightly (+0.9 to 50.9). It is the 3rd consecutive month the prices have exceeded capacity due to excess capacity contraction and increasing demand. Respondents are predicting that these dynamics will hold, suggesting that the freight recession is potentially ending. Warehousing also remained strong….”

“The consumer may be preparing to leave the party.” (Logistics Report, Wall Street Journal). “From McDonald’s to Mercedes-Benz, executives say that many consumers in China and the U.S. are pulling back on spending. …(T)he countries are under different stresses, with U.S. consumers increasingly showing signs of weariness after a run of high inflation while Chinese households focus more on saving than spending. If consumers in the U.S. do falter, it would mean a double whammy for multinational companies, which have been facing weak demand in China. PepsiCo sounded an early alarm on consumer spending in both the U.S. and China, and reported a 4% drop in North American sales volume in the latest quarter. Many American importers have been rushing in goods early ahead of the traditional peak season to get ahead of shipping disruptions. A pullback by consumers would leave them with another inventory overhang.” • Not the same as what economist Alfred Kahn memorable called “a banana,” but nevertheless a sign of weekness. And that early shipping data point is interesting.

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 21 Exreme Fear (previous close: 19 Extreme Fear) (CNN). One week ago: 47 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 6 at 11:51:12 AM ET. I turn my back for one minute…..

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged (Rapture Ready). Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 183. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Where are there people getting their news?!

Book Nook

“Uncovered Euripides fragments are ‘kind of a big deal’” (press release) (University of Colorado Boulder). “Working together, Trnka-Amrhein and renowned classics Professor John Gibert embarked on many months of grueling work, meticulously poring over a high-resolution photo of the 10.5-square-inch papyrus. They made out words and ensured that the words they thought they were seeing fit the norms of tragic style and meter. Eventually, they became confident that they were working with new material from two fragmentary Euripides plays, Polyidus and Ino.” And: “Polyidus retells an ancient Cretan myth in which King Minos and Queen Pasiphaë demand that the eponymous seer resurrect their son Glaucus after he drowns in a vat of honey.” • What.

Zeitgeist Watch

“‘No Salt’” (Jake Seliger, The Story’s Story). “So I opted for something simple: a shakshuka. Tomatoes, vegetables, sauce, and mild flavorings, topped with feta cheese, eggs, and basil. I reached for the salt, and found the bottle empty. I’m not sure why, but I started weeping. No salt. No salt means that he’s not cooking. He’ll never cook again.”

“Is The Collapse Of Civilization Boring To You?” (Nate Bear, ¡Do Not Panic!). “(A) bunch of environmental groups came out in support of Kamala Harris just two days after she renounced her previous anti-fracking position. She did this because she wants to win pro-fracking votes in Pennsylvania. Maybe no one has told her that there probably won’t be an entity called Pennsylvania at some point in the next few decades if fracking continues. Or that Trump has a lock on the pro-fracking bloc and no one she wants to convince of her new anti-fracking stance will believe her. Fracking, of course, has seen the US surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest oil producer. Fracking initiated by Obama(1) and continued by Trump, then by Biden and will continue under Harris or Trump 2.0. How thin the politics. How meagre the demands of some activists have become.” And relevant to yesterday’s post: “I was thinking about this when I sat outside every evening for four nights on an island in southern Europe, on a well-lit patio at the end of quiet, carless street expecting to see moths swarming the lights. I know well the trouble insects are in, but I still expected to see moths. I saw one. Moths are critical night-time pollinators, an essential part of the ecology that supports our food chain. In Australia, a type of moth that you could find by the tens of thousands in individual caves suddenly disappeared in the space of a few months. How quickly things can collapse.” • Thinking of this post, and the comments to yesterday’s post on an insect apocalypse, it occurs to me that this “Silent Summer” on a grand scale might be something that everybody can be brought to see and to understand. That hasn’t been easy to do with climate change. NOTE (1) The best starting point for the fracking timeline is Dick Cheney’s Energy Task Force (and the “Halliburton Loophole”) under Bush the Younger, not Obama. It’s bipartisan!

Climate

“Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data” (Science). “One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping times. Here, we argue that the involved uncertainties are too high to robustly predict tipping times. We raise concerns regarding (i) the modeling assumptions underlying any extrapolation of historical results into the future, (ii) the representativeness of individual Earth system component time series, and (iii) the impact of uncertainties and preprocessing of used observational datasets, with focus on nonstationary observational coverage and gap filling. We explore these uncertainties in general and specifically for the example of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We argue that even under the assumption that a given Earth system component has an approaching tipping point, the uncertainties are too large to reliably estimate tipping times by extrapolating historical information.” • Oh.

The Gallery

“Andy Warhol’s lost Amiga art found” (The Silicon UnderGround). “To a casual viewer, they look like low resolution images with a very limited number of colors, and it’s not completely unfair to say they bear some resemblance to something my kids would have created in Microsoft Paint when they were little. But when I showed the images to my wife, a former high school art teacher, the first thing she noticed was his choice of colors. He deliberately chose colors that contrasted with each other, and the other colors he used were colors you would get from mixing two or more of the other colors he used. Rule number one of painting, she said, is to never use black or brown, but make your own from the other colors you’re using. Warhol’s images contain odd shades that result from mixing other colors in the image together. When you look at Andy Warhol paintings, his style suited these specific tools. He often worked from photographs, creating stark images containing bold flood fills with only a few colors. Sometimes he would cut up photographs, or have someone else cut up the photographs, then he would arrange the pieces and then paint what he saw. With the Amiga, he could do all of this digitally. So the choice of Andy Warhol to demonstrate how to use the machine was a brilliant idea. This computer with advanced graphics capabilities for its time, and the ability to multitask and switch between different tools so he could cut up and resize images and then paste the result into the image he was working on couldn’t have suited him any better if he’d designed it himself. Problem was, he didn’t know how to use a computer.” • Worth a read!

Turner as Giger?!

News of the Wired

I am not yet feeling wired today.

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From KW:

KW writes: “Fog on the Marsh, Madison,Wisconsin. The Ho Chunk word for fog is ruują.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals: