Hi, I’m Eve. The following post is not a bad Western update on the Middle East situation, but it does contain some cliches, such as Yemeni and Iraqi forces opposing the US being Iranian proxies, not Iranian-backed allies, etc. Attentive readers may notice that it blithely describes the possibility of Israel targeting civilian infrastructure in Lebanon without mentioning it. That would be a war crime.
Some informational tips:
In one YouTube interview (I think it was with Nima from Dialogue Works), Larry Wilkerson noted that Iran has been slow to respond to provocations by Western standards.From 13:20) notes that Putin (one wonders why this was a Russian operation and not a Syrian one) has kicked out the 900 US soldiers tasked with guarding Syria’s oil fields, meaning Israel now has to rely on purchased oil.
More from today’s links: Fitch downgrades Israel’s credit rating by one notchMr. Market recognized this, and Iran indignantly rejected calls to withdraw from Europe.
By Paul Rogers Professor Emeritus, Faculty of Peace Studies and International Relations He is an Honorary Fellow of the University of Bradford and an Honorary Fellow of the Joint Services Command and Staff College. He is Open Democracy’s international security correspondent. Follow him on Twitter: @Professor. Originally Open Democracy
Geopolitical tensions have been rising since Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, with world leaders fearing a further escalating Iranian response could lead to a wider war across the region.
There has been intense diplomatic activity by governments including Russia, Jordan and some Gulf states urging Iran to refrain from responding, but the assassination is seen as a direct attack on Iranian sovereignty and Iranian religious leaders are under intense pressure at home to respond with significant force.
The United States also strengthen a country that already has considerable military power A new U.S. Navy carrier battle group will replace one being withdrawn from the Gulf of Oman, additional squadrons of attack aircraft will move to the region, as well as more air defense destroyers, cruisers, and land-based air defense systems. The Pentagon also ordered a nuclear-powered submarine equipped with cruise missiles to be sent to the region. Announced yesterday.
Meanwhile, Israel continues its war on Gaza. Hamas remains active despite Israel’s destruction of many urban areas and the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. 80 Palestinians killed in three Israeli airstrikes The explosion at Tabin School in Gaza City had displaced 6,000 people, Palestinian health officials said.
Tensions have also been high in southern Lebanon as low-level clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have repeatedly escalated into missile and airstrikes. This has been the case ever since Hamas launched attacks in southern Israel last October, leading to mass displacement of land on both sides of the border.
End 400 dead in Lebanon so farMost of the displaced were Hezbollah paramilitaries, with a further 94,000 people on the border with Lebanon displaced, while Israel removed 65,000 from its own border.
Lebanon’s damage toll had already reached $15 billion by the end of May. According to Charbel KordahiThe damage to Israel is unclear, but in any case, Israel is Killing of senior Hamas military leaderSaleh Al Arouri was photographed in Beirut earlier this year.
Just recently, Israeli forces assassinated one of Hezbollah’s senior military leaders, Fuad Shukla. However, according to veterans and some politicians in the Israeli media, neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s government nor the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) want an all-out war with Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s paramilitary forces are far more powerful than Hamas at the start of the Gaza war, and its arsenal has grown tenfold since the last war with Israel in 2006. The Israeli government has also threatened to oust Hezbollah, even with the most concentrated air defense system. Could be overwhelmed by hundreds of missiles They approached and fired.
What Israel would want most would be concentrated air strikes on Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure, especially in areas under Hezbollah’s influence, which is exactly what Israel did in 2006, but on a much larger scale this time, essentially deterring Hezbollah from future aggression, potentially devastating the Lebanese economy in the process, a very risky move that carries the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
What links this to the Israeli-Iranian dynamic is that Hezbollah is a prime example of a paramilitary group that is strongly backed by Iran and is already at odds with Israel. While Hezbollah is not in direct conflict with the U.S. military, one of its earliest actions is etched in the Pentagon’s military history books. 241 US Marines killed in double suicide bombing He opposed the US stabilization operation in Lebanon in 1983.
But U.S. forces are in direct conflict with Iranian paramilitary and proxy forces in Yemen and Iraq, an ongoing small-scale war that has received little coverage in the Western media outside of security publications.
The past few months have seen U.S.-led airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including a series of attacks following militia attacks inside Iraq that targeted military installations across the border in Jordan, and last Monday a rocket attack on U.S. troops at Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, reportedly launched from inside Iraq. Seven US soldiers and civilians injured.
There is also a separate conflict with the Iran-backed Houthi regime in Yemen. Earlier this week, a Liberian-flagged container ship (Liberia is a US ally) was struck by a sniper. Missile attack launched from YemenIt is the latest in a series of offensive and defensive military actions by Western nations, mostly by US forces but also involving Britain, Israel and other countries.
The level of U.S. activity is remarkable, whether it be drones and missiles already in the air or others on the ground, aimed at radar sites and other military targets. 20 cases in July, and a similar number in JuneBut the Houthis insist they will continue their attacks until Israel ends its war with Hamas.
Overall, while there may be serious concerns about the possibility of an escalation of war in the Middle East arising from Israel’s existing war against Hamas and Hezbollah, a broader war is already underway. The United States is deeply involved in this through its strong military support for Israel, and so are other Western allies, notably the UK.
This war shows few signs of abating. In fact, given the current U.S. military buildup and tensions with Iran, it is likely to escalate further unless wise counsel is heeded.
