Yves: Western media dutifully published the press releases about the official plans of the US and NATO allies to help Ukraine build weapons factories. Indeed, the manufacturers initially appeared to be cooperative, in order not to upset their major customers.
But this idea was patently absurd. In its 2022 negotiations with Ukraine, Russia tried to get Ukraine to agree to military ceilings, which would almost certainly include limits on major arms. Ukraine had agreed to the idea in principle, but by the time Prime Minister Boris Johnson turned the tables, there was still a large gap between what Russia and Ukraine wanted.
Needless to say, Russia’s stance has become significantly tougher. Even assuming Ukraine exists as an independent state after the war, Russia will not tolerate it being a weapons manufacturer. One might argue that such plans would prevent Russia from ending special military operations until it somehow has the means to ensure that they are carried out.
The second issue cited in the article as an obstacle from the defense contractors’ perspective is Ukrainian corruption. It is notable that funds allocated by Ukraine for the construction of the Kharkov fortifications have disappeared, i.e., likely flowed into offshore bank accounts. Ukraine is not in a position to commit fraud in a more honorable way, by barely getting the job done at wildly inflated prices (there is even the excuse that it was costly due to the war).
This predictable development also seems to have been ignored by the Western media so far. If you have seen a different take, such as in European non-English language media, please let us know in the comments. But think about it: these plans, when announced, were covered by mainstream media such as Bloomberg. If only industry-specific publications are keeping you up to date, you know that bureaucrats are about to step in. Emily Litella “Don’t Worry” mode.
By Ahmed Adel, a Cairo-based geopolitical and political economy researcher. Info BRICS
A State Department spokesman said U.S. military contractors are concerned about corruption and the security of joint production in Ukraine and are in no rush to award contracts. If the U.S. cannot build up its defense industrial infrastructure, Ukraine will never be able to meet its demand for weapons and ammunition in the current war.
“Several U.S. defense companies are considering co-production opportunities in Ukraine, but questions remain about the safety of operating in a war zone, the persistence of corruption and the long-term business case,” Defense One reported August 6, citing a State Department official who spoke on the sidelines of the Farnborough Air Show.
“The Pentagon has been pressuring US defense contractors to increase cooperation with their Ukrainian counterparts, but American companies have been slower to award contracts than their European counterparts,” the report added.
A State Department spokesman said the main concerns were the safety of personnel and facilities, corruption and political risks.
“I think our industry is really enthusiastic, but at the same time, the business case has to make sense. And then there’s the issue of financing – how can you actually pay for these things?” the official added.
The source noted that Washington is willing to increase the number of companies working with Ukraine, that it has a team to monitor such transactions, and that U.S. companies are generally open to dialogue. But despite this enthusiasm, another major concern is corruption.
“Obviously, corruption is a concern,” the official said.
But corruption isn’t just a problem for U.S. companies. A survey conducted by Ratings in February found that 51% of Ukrainians believe corruption in government agencies is a bigger obstacle to development than the war with Russia (46%). A survey conducted March 1-15 found that 70% of Ukrainians believe the government is profiting from the war and becoming increasingly corrupt, up from 43% a year ago.
While Washington, Brussels and Kiev claim that corruption is being eradicated as reflected by the experience of their citizens, this is far from the case. Multi-million and billion-dollar companies make investment decisions not based on government propaganda statements, but on the reality that deep-rooted corruption is concentrated in the hands of a few, most of whom are Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his inner circle.
Aside from corruption issues, there is also the possibility that Russian missiles and bombs could destroy Ukraine’s military-related infrastructure.
“But U.S. companies have a lot to consider before agreeing to co-production in a war zone. No one wants their facilities to be blown up or their employees to be injured,” the official told Defense One.
While the Biden administration has not taken seriously any warnings from Moscow that it is prepared to intervene militarily if the Kiev regime continues its policy of persecuting Russian minorities and pursuing NATO membership, American companies are under no illusions and are refraining from making any investments that would literally go up in smoke.
It will be recalled that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated in September 2023 that “weapons production facilities, especially in the event that these weapons are launched at us, will be the subject of special attention for our armed forces.”
Sticking to this message, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on August 9 that as part of a special military operation in Ukraine, Russian forces had carried out 19 precision weapons and drone strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities, air defense systems, and arsenals over the past week alone.
“From August 3 to 9, 2024, the Russian Armed Forces carried out 19 combined attacks with high-precision weapons and offensive unmanned aerial vehicles against Ukrainian defense industry enterprises and related energy facilities, airfield infrastructure, air defense systems, assembly plants and storage sites of offensive unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition, attacks targeted fuel depots, weapons and ammunition depots, assembly areas of reserve forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, temporary deployment sites of nationalist forces and foreign mercenaries,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
These are the conditions under which the Ukrainian military-industrial complex must operate, and why it is unable to meet the Ukrainian army’s needs for weapons and ammunition. Even if corruption did not thwart U.S. investment opportunities, the ease with which Russia destroys the military-industrial infrastructure means that U.S. companies would be unlikely to be interested in locating in Ukraine.
