By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Today’s Bird Song
I’m still with the Thrashers!
California Thrasher, Daily Ranch, San Diego, California, USA.
In case you missed it…
- Latest Coronavirus Data: The XDV.1 variant was first spotted in China.
- Campaign Scenario And the Democratic National Convention.
Politics
“Many social responses that strike us as psychological are in fact the rational management of symbolic capital.” – Pierre Bourdieu, The Struggle for Classification
2024
Less than 100 days left!
Friday RCCP Poll average:
There is no good news for Trump — especially the deterioration in Pennsylvania and Georgia — but remember that all fluctuations — all leads — are within the margin of error, so the “joy” is, well, atmospheric.
* * * Democratic National Convention:
Hello, Lambert. Let’s start by examining the current situation. This is a scenario that assumes nothing significant will change. Structural The election has changed since 2020. And the election will come down to a few hundred thousand electoral votes in mostly the same battleground states. (I’ve heard this not be a Kamala campaign theory. It might be enough for a “100-day” campaign, since “joy”, atmosphere and memes will change the electoral map all over. But I’m not sure how strongly that theory holds up outside the blue bubble. It’s true that Trump is slipping back in the polls, but is it no longer a close race? No. So for now, I’m sticking with the original scenario.) Read from left to right, top to bottom. There are captions under each map.
Table 0: Electoral College Scenarios
Now, let’s talk about Pennsylvania. It’s interesting that at the Democratic National Convention, the non-committal delegates and the Palestinian issue already have a say for everyone.
Unconfirmed: Democratic National Convention to host first-ever panel on Palestinian human rights issues
Panelists:
Undecided co-leader, Leila Elaveed
A surgeon who served in Gaza
Party organizer and his family killed by Israeli forces in Gaza
MN AG Keith Ellison
Former representative Andy Levin
Jim Zogby, Director of the Arab American Institute pic.twitter.com/ge1xGqNtqx— Prem Thakker (@prem_thakker) August 19, 2024
(Readers will recall that Sanders tried to field Keith Ellison after 2016, but the Democrats dumped him for the reptilian Tom Perez.) So what could Kamala give them? First, how many “undecided” voters are there? Michigan: 100,000+; Wisconsin, 47,800 (Minnesota It has 40,000 voters, but it’s not a swing state. Plus, “independent” voters tend to be in the party’s activist tier. So let’s look at Pennsylvania. American Jewish Population Project (2020):
That’s 232,000. If we assume 70% vote (high), we get 162,400. If we assume the other 70% are Zionists or close to Zionists, we get 113,680. So the numbers in the Upper Midwest and Pennsylvania are roughly equal. All other things being equal, I would say Kamala would take AIPAC money and victimize activists (and ex-Sanders). In a flash! But all other things are not equal. She is, as the “endgame” map shows, both Pennsylvania and the Midwest.
If I were to take a free guess, I’d say Kamala “got her ass together” in the upper Midwest first. That was what Waltz was all about. It was actually smart. She’s now First Aside from the “undecided” voters, she could also soothe undecided delegates with meaningless concessions: “listening,” speeches from the floor, meeting the candidates, promises that Biden is working hard on the issues (and maybe even actually achieving a ceasefire, which means nothing in the face of a determined president). genocide). With the upper Midwest solidified, she will next target Pennsylvania. (It is very interesting to me how the meme-heavy aspects of Kamala’s campaign (the couch, the “weird”) are so reminiscent of the brilliant campaign run by Fetterman’s social media team.) Note: Why not Shapiro? The Midwest was first. Shapiro is difficult to work with (he had “scheduling issues” this week and couldn’t help Kamala’s campaign), and campaign staff must have felt they could do the job without him (after all, Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020).
(To be continued later)
Syndemics
“I mean it. I don’t equivocate, I don’t excuse, I don’t back down. And I will be heard.” – William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, US (Nationwide): Infection (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties. Wastewater Scanincluding drilldown by zip code); variant (CDC; Walgreens);Iowa COVID-19 Tracker“(Although it is IA, it is national data)”Infection control, emergency management, safety, and general considerations(Especially regarding hospitalizations by city).
This is Lambert. Thank you to all readers for your help. To update the article, please feel free to contact us at the address listed with the plant. Please write “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you.
Resources, US (Local): AK (Dashboard); AL (Dashboard); AR (Dashboard); AZ (Dashboard); CA (Dashboard; Marine, Dashboard; Stamford, Wastewater; Auckland, wastewater); CO (Dashboard; Wastewater); CT (DashboardGerman (Dashboard); FL (Wastewater); GA (Wastewater); Hello (Dashboard); IA (Wastewater Report); ID (DashboardBoise; Dashboard, Wastewatercentral Idaho; WastewaterCoeur d’Alene, Dashboard, Spokane County); IL (Wastewater); in (Dashboard); KS (Dashboard; WastewaterLawrence); KY (DashboardLouisville); LA (Dashboard); MA (Wastewater);MD (Dashboard); myself (Dashboard); MI (Wastewater; Wastewater); MN (Dashboard); MO (Wastewater); MS (Dashboard); MT (Dashboard); N.C. (Dashboard);ND (Dashboard; Wastewater); NE (Dashboard); NH (Wastewater); New Jersey (Dashboard); NM (Dashboard);NV(Dashboard; WastewaterSouthern Nevada); New York (Dashboard); oh (Dashboard); got it (Dashboard); or (Dashboard); PA (Dashboard); RI (Dashboard); SC (Dashboard); SD (Dashboard); TN (Dashboard); TX (Dashboard);UT (Wastewater); VA (Dashboard); VT (Dashboard); WA (Dashboard; Dashboard); WI (Wastewater); West Virginia (Wastewater); Wyoming (Wastewater).
Resources, Canada (country): Wastewater (Canadian Government).
Resources, Canada (Province): ON (Wastewater); Quality Control (second hand); B.C. (Wastewater); Vancouver, BC (Wastewater).
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Table 1: Daily Coronavirus Infections Chart
Lambert: It’s notable that emergency department admissions across the country are as high as they were in the first wave of 2020.
Legend
1) ★ These are the charts that were newly added today. No other updates have been made.
2) To view the full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and select “Open image in new tab.”
Note
(1) (CDC) Wastewater map of the week with annotated hotspots that continue to spread.
(2) (CDC) Wastewater map from last week.
(3) (CDC variant) KP.* is highly prevalent. A new variant from China, XDV.1, was identified for the first time (but did not appear in traveller data).
(4) It is notable that emergency department utilization is comparable to the first wave of 2020.
(5) (Hospitalizations: New York) A downward trend. Of course, it doesn’t have to continue forever. (The New York City area has a history: in 2020, as home to two international airports (JFK and EWR), it was a key entry point for the virus into the country (and from there the wealthy tried to escape up the Hudson River Valley and then around the country by plane).)
(6) (Hospitalizations: CDC). Visualization reduces the significant increase when expressed as a percentage.
(7) (Walgreens) To tinker or fiddle.
(8) (Cleveland) Jump.
(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Up. The damn bastards at the CDC changed the graph so it starts on 1/1/24 instead of going back to 1/21/23 as before. There is also no way to adjust the time range. The CDC doesn’t really want you to take a historical perspective of the pandemic or compare one surge to another. Either way, that’s why the shape of the curve changed.
(10) (Travelers: Variant) The new Chinese variant, XDV.1, is not shown here.
(11) The number of deaths is decreasing, but the positivity rate is increasing.
(12) The number of deaths is decreasing, while ED is increasing.
Statistics Watch
Today’s Fear and Greed Index: 36 Fear (Previous day’s close: 32 Fear) (CNN). 1 week ago: 23 (extreme fear). (0 being extreme fear, 100 being extreme greed). Last updated: August 16, 1:13:54 PM EST.
I’m not in the mood today.
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