by Calculated Risk September 13, 2024 9:16 AM
Today’s Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current state of the housing market, mid-September 2024 overview
Short excerpt:
Our two-part mid-September brief provides an overview of the current housing market situation.
I always focus on inventory first. Inventory is usually Telling a story!
…
Below is a graph of new property listings from Realtor.com. Monthly Housing Market Trends Report for August 2024 New listings in August were down 0.9% compared to last year. New listings remain well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:
Similar to buyers, sellers also held back in August as new home listings fell 0.9% below last year’s levels, reversing July’s 8.4% increase. This brought an end to a nine-month trend of increasing listings. We believe the sharp decline in mortgage rates seen in mid-August could lead to an increase in listings in the coming months as lower rates begin to motivate marginal homeowners to sell.
Be aware of the seasonality of new listings: December and January are the months with the least number of new listings seasonally, followed by February and November. New listings in 2024 are expected to increase year-over-year but still remain below normal levels.
There will always be people who have to sell their homes because of the so-called 3 D’s — death, divorce, and illness — and there will also be people who have to sell their homes because of unemployment or a lot of debt — neither of which are big issues right now. However, Florida could impose very expensive homeowners insurance (due to the effects of climate change) and special assessments on condo owners for deferred maintenance.
And some homeowners want to sell for a variety of reasons, including wanting to upsize their home (more kids), downsize their home, moving for a new job, wanting to move to a better home or location (upgrade buyers), etc. It is a portion of the “want to sell” group that has been held in gold handcuffs for the last few years because with current mortgage rates around 3% and new mortgage rates around 6.15%, it will be financially difficult to move.
But time is of the essence for this group of people who want to sell, and eventually some of them will take the plunge and sell. Initial data suggests the number of new listings in September is expected to increase compared to last year.
There’s a lot more in the article.
