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Patient readers, the post on the latest Trump assassination attempt, took much much longer than I expected, and so I had to cut my prep and writing time for Water Cooler. I’ll make it up to you tomorrow, I swear! –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
I say stick with the catbirds!
Gray Catbird, Shadehill State Rec Area – Merrimans Grove, Perkins, South Dakota, United States.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Boeing takes cash flow measures, butchers messaging.
- Naming waypoints in the air!
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than sixty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.
(to come)
Democrats en Déshabillé
Welcome to the Third World:
Hello FBI you may also want to look into why this fire chief was driving a lambo around Chelsea last week https://t.co/9FZ4XDhHb0 pic.twitter.com/EWBbR5dZq7
— Huge Ma (@turbovax) September 16, 2024
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission
Transmission: H5N1
“H5 Influenza Vaccines—Moving Forward Against Pandemic Threats” (JAMA). “The current extent of mammalian infection appears unprecedented, and a 2024 study suggested the virus may have acquired enhanced ability to bind mammalian airway receptors.2 The widespread presence of H5N1 among animals in proximity to humans, despite biocontainment efforts, increases risks for reassortment between human and animal viruses and selection of mutations that could enhance human transmission and threaten a pandemic.” • Yep. Better plan a multi-layered defense. Oh wait, it’s going to be vax-only again, isn’t it?
Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.
| Wastewater | |
| This week(1) CDC September 9 | Last Week(2) CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants (3) CDC August 31 | Emergency Room Visits(4) CDC September 7 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York(5) New York State, data September 13: | National (6) CDC August 24: |
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| Positivity | |
| ★ National(7) Walgreens September 16: | Ohio(8) Cleveland Clinic September 7: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity(9) CDC August 26: | Variants(10) CDC August 26: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity (11)CDC September 7: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits (12)CDC September 9: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
(1) (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.
(2) (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
(3) (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.
(4) (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
(5) (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
(6) (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
(7) (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
(8) (Cleveland) Dropping.
(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
(10) (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?
(11) Deaths low, but positivity up.
(12) Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” (Trading Economics). “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 11.5 in September 2024, the highest since April 2022, compared to -4.7 in August and forecasts of -3.9. The reading showed business activity in New York state grew for the first time in nearly a year.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing strike: bosses bruised, blindsided and on brink of crisis” (Reuters). “Two days after Boeing announced its offer, as union member frustration seeped into the media, commercial planes chief Stephanie Pope wrote an open letter to workers, saying the company had held nothing back and this was the best deal they would get. CEO Kelly Ortberg followed up with an open letter the next day, telling workers that voting against the deal would send them down a path ‘where no one wins’. Rather than rallying the troops, the letters backfired, according to four workers who said many union members saw them as ultimatums. ‘I thought they were unprofessional and threatening,’ said Josh King, a quality control inspector at a Boeing Seattle factory. Boeing finance chief Brian West acknowledged the disconnect with staff. ‘We had an unprecedented temporary agreement that was unanimously endorsed by union leadership. And over the last few days, it became very clear, loud and clear, with our union members that that offer didn’t meet the mark,’ he told a Morgan Stanley conference at the beachside Ritz-Carlton in Dana Point, California on Friday.” • The workers were voting against the union leadership just as much as they were Boeing management. Unsurprisingly.
“Boeing freezes hiring in sweeping cost cuts as it grapples with factory worker strike” (CNBC). “The manufacturer will make ‘significant reductions’ to supplier spending and stop most purchase orders for its 737 Max, 767 and 777 jetliners, CFO Brian West said in a note to staff. It was the first clear sign of how the strike will affect the hundreds of suppliers that rely on Boeing work. ‘We are working in good faith to reach a new contract agreement that reflects their feedback and enables operations to resume,’ West said in his note. “However, our business is in a difficult period. This strike jeopardizes our recovery in a significant way and we must take necessary actions to preserve cash and safeguard our shared future.’ He added that Boeing is not making cuts to funding for safety, quality and direct customer support work.” • Why West? Why not Ortberg? Anyhow, West’s message:
NEWS: Boeing CFO Brian West issues a companywide memo detailing the steps it is taking conserve cash during the IAM strike. Its austerity measures will reverberate across the aerospace industry and broader U.S. and global economy. pic.twitter.com/bxLMSfKXY7
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) September 16, 2024
Manufacturing: “Boeing Strikers Have Leverage to Extract Meaningful Change” (Bloomberg). “The union now has the upper hand because Boeing desperately needs to ramp up production of planes to help heal its supply chain and stem its losses. The company offered a general wage increase of 25% over four years and a $3,000 bonus for approving a new contract. Workers wanted a 40% raise and annual performance bonuses. How does Boeing pay up without breaking its finances? Here’s a quirky suggestion for both sides of the bargaining table: tie an extra bonus to any future share repurchases.” • See the post for the logic, which seems too clever by half. Why not just give the workers what they want and deserve?
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 49 Neutral (previous close: 43 Fear) (CNN). One week ago: 39 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 13 at 1:58:23 PM ET.
Gallery
Yikes:
Hello FBI you may also want to look into why this fire chief was driving a lambo around Chelsea last week https://t.co/9FZ4XDhHb0 pic.twitter.com/EWBbR5dZq7
— Huge Ma (@turbovax) September 16, 2024
“Greetings, Stranger” (Use Nothing). “Nothing—a timer that tracks your intentional choice to do… nothing. No goals to chase, no notifications clamoring for your attention, no pressure to fill the silence with productivity. It simply exists, quietly counting each second you allow to pass. This is a space where inactivity is the point—a digital oasis amidst the chaos of endless tasks and to-dos.”
If you stan for toponymics, this is for you:
To streamline traffic, large airports have Standard Terminal ARrivals (STARs).
Points on the route are named. They must be 5 characters & unique – can’t match any other nav point out there
They often have themes; it helps you know how to pronounce the points on the radio when… pic.twitter.com/olwoDLCeEg
— KC-10 Driver ✈️ 👨✈️ B-737 Wrangler (@MCCCANM) September 16, 2024
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:
TH writes: ” Aeonium haworthii, also known as Haworth’s aeonium or pinwheel— I don’t blame you if you wish that bee were in focus— I liked the background and colors of this one. Disappointing harvest? He appears to be going away empty handed.” I’m a big fan of blur, as a technique. What do readers think?
