2:00PM Water Cooler 9/19/2024 | naked capitalism

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Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Lord Stirling Park, Somerset, New Jersey, United States.

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Latest Trump assassination news (what a world).
2. Boeing managers and executives laid off.
3. Diddy had better make sure the CCTV works at all times.
4. The philosphy game.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

“N4T Investigators: Several Trump supporters seated on stage during Tucson rally experience eye injuries” (KVOA). ” It’s a mystery at a Donald Trump rally that left multiple people with eye injuries and few answers. The News 4 Tucson Investigators spoke exclusively with six people who were seated on stage behind the former president during his rally in Tucson last week. Three of them agreed to on camera interviews… All of the people we spoke with experienced eye irritation and sought medical attention. One of them is Mayra Rodriguez, who became a prominent figure within the Republican party after becoming a Planned Parenthood ‘whistleblower.’ Rodriguez used to be a Planned Parenthood Director but made a notable transition into a strong pro-life advocate and supporter of Donald Trump. Rodriguez said her presence behind Trump at his Tucson rally was ironic because she was seated behind former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during an event in 2016…. The N4T Investigators spoke with a brother and sister that were seated near Mayra, they did not want to be identified. ‘It kept getting worse and worse, my eyes were watering a lot, my nose started running then I started feeling my face get really flushed and my neck felt like it was on fire and it just progressed from there,’ the sister said. Her brother told us, ‘It was all focused on my eyes, my eyes were red like hell you know, it’s unbearable. I couldn’t handle it.’ The other supporters who did not agree to on camera interviews told us about very similar injuries. One woman who is a local realtor said she had to cancel all her showings over the weekend because she couldn’t see well.” I don’t know where else to file this, so here it is. But: “On Tuesday after repeated inquiries from the N4T Investigators Trump Senior Campaign Advisor sent us the following statement: ‘The Trump campaign has been collecting information. We remain committed to the countless patriots that attend our high-energy, high-impact rallies across the country.’” • So we’ll see.

“How the Trump campaign has been forced to adapt to assassination threats” (WaPo). “Less than two weeks after an assassin’s bullet grazed Donald Trump’s ear this summer, he was held backstage at a Nashville event for more than an hour because of a potential security threat… The delay was emblematic of a growing burden that the alarming threats to Trump’s life have become for him and his campaign.” I’m not saying anything about causality, but the net effect is exactly like lawfare: A campaign’s most valuable resource is the candidates time, and these “threats” suck it up. More: “Events have taken far longer to plan because of limited resources. Bulletproof glass now boxes him in at outdoor events. Campaign officials have been warned by the government about the possibility of (see above) that could target the former president. His team has gotten nervous about drones targeting him at golf courses and at outdoor venues after hearing briefings from the Secret Service.”

“17% Say America Would Be Better Off If Trump Had Been Killed” (Napolitano News Service) (about). Rassmussen online poll, so take with a truckload of salts. “Seventeen percent (17%) of voters believe America would have been better off if former President Trump had been killed in last week’s attempted assassination. That figure includes 28% of Democrats who say that America would have been better off if Trump had been assassinated. Another 24% of Democrats were not sure. Fewer than half (48%) of Democrats could bring themselves to say that America would not be better off if the opposing party’s candidate for president had been assassinated. Scott Rasmussen, president of RMG Research, said ‘It is hard to imagine a greater threat to democracy than expressing a desire to have your political opponent murdered.’ Despite two assassination attempts in two months, just over half of all Democrats (51%) don’t see a need to increase Trump’s security detail. Among all voters, 62% think Trump’s security should be increased and 32% disagree. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats think it’s at least somewhat likely that Trump himself or the Trump campaign was involved with the assassination attempt, with 21% saying it was very likely. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Republicans think it’s at least somewhat likely that the Democratic Party or the Harris campaign was involved, with 28% saying it’s very likely.” • Even if you move the decimal point one place to the right (51% to 5.1%) these numbers are still pretty alarming. The one that worried me the most is this one: “Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats think it’s at least somewhat likely that Trump himself or the Trump campaign was involved with the assassination attempt, with 21% saying it was very likely.” this is pure CT (which is something only Republicans are supposed to be vulnerable to). I’ve never seen any evidence of this at all, and I do try to keep track (only the odd “must have”-style tweet).

2024

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

* * *

“Don’t let randomness make a fool of you” (Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin). “An election is not just an incredibly important story but a story that many people understandably feel incredibly emotional about. The extremely partisan political climate in the United States makes all of this worse and enables people to rationalize a lot of abusive behavior. Polls and models become a vehicle for what psychologists call transference: basically, people displace all their anxieties about the election onto the forecasts and the people who design them…. On Twitter in particular, there can be complete context collapse. People treat probabilistic predictions as deterministic ones, e.g. if Trump goes from a 48 percent chance of winning Wisconsin to a 52 percent chance, you’ll get a lot of Nate Silver is calling Wisconsin for Trump!!! even though the forecast expresses a high degree of uncertainty and nothing in the model has really changed. And that’s on a good day. …. On November 5th, we’ll all wake up with a lot of uncertainty about who will win. And we might go to bed with a lot of uncertainty, too: if recent American elections are any guide, the outcome could take several days to resolve……. So lead your best life, and have the serenity to accept the things you cannot change.” • Yep.

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Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Airborne Transmission: Covid

“Superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 at a choir rehearsal in Finland—A computational fluid dynamics view on aerosol transmission and patient interviews” (PLOS One). “COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the role of aerosol transmission and the importance of superspreading events. We analyzed a choir rehearsal in November 2020, where all participants, except one who had recently earlier recovered from COVID-19, were infected. We explore the risk factors for severe disease in this event and model the aerosol dispersion in the rehearsal room….. Modeling indicated infection risk levels of 70–100% after one hour; the risk would have been considerably reduced by wearing high-filtration respirators. Age and pre-existing comorbidities predicted more severe disease. The high incidence of illness may be partly attributed to the relatively high median age of individuals.” • Or filters, or open windows, or even some sort of RV. Remember the Skagit Valley Choir study? Time is a flat circle…

Immune Dysregulation

“Tuberculosis case discovered in Union County high school student; hundreds could be exposed: Health Department” (Queen City News). “The Union County Public Health Department is investigating a case of active (tuberculosis (TB)) involving a student at Porter Ridge High School in Indian Trail. The student is following appropriate protocol for active cases. ‘Tuberculosis is a bacterial disease that mainly affects the lungs, and causes a chronic cough,’ said pediatrician, Dr. Carlos Paxtor. Health officials say at least 270 individuals may have been in contact with the student and are encouraged to get tested. TB can spread through the air when a person with an active case coughs, sneezes, sings or talks. Union County usually sees around four TB cases annually. In terms of is transmissibility, it’s not even on the same scale as COVID. ‘It’s not a good thing to have tuberculosis. It’s one of the most feared conditions that we see in third world countries, but in our country here in the United States, we do have the ability to fight this very, very well,’ Paxtor said.” • But why? ‘Tis a mystery!

Elite Maleficence

More absurdities from the UK:

Amazing moment at #CovidInquiry as Chair holds up two face masks one surgical and one FFP3 and asks Dr Susan Hopkins of @UKHSA surely the 2nd is more secure and she replied no. This is #farce and tragedy and explains why #PublicHealth has failed #CovidIsntOver 😷

— Joseph Healy (@Verde1957) September 18, 2024

If there’s any live coverage of this event besides on the Twitter, could some kind soul let me know?

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” (Trading Economics). “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US dropped by 12,000 from the previous week to 219,000 on the period ending September 14th, significantly below market expectations of 230,000, and reaching a new 4-month low. Despite this decline, the claim count remained above the averages seen earlier this year, as the US labor market has softened since its post-pandemic peak (sic), although it remains historically tight.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” (Trading Economics). “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US rose to 1.7 in September 2024, recovering from -7 in August and beating forecasts of -1.”

Manufacturing: “Passengers describe injuries from Delta flight with cabin pressure issues” (KSL). ” Two Delta Air Lines passengers say they are still recovering from a pressurization issue on a plane that caused bloody noses and busted eardrums. Caryn Allen said it didn’t take very long for other passengers to notice something was wrong with Delta Air Lines Flight 1203, which was flying from Salt Lake City to Portland. ‘I looked over at my husband, and he had both of his hands over his ears, you know, kind of leaning forward,’ Allen said… Another passenger, Jaci Purser, said it felt like somebody was stabbing her in the ear. She felt her ear pop from the pressure in the cabin, then bubble. ‘I grabbed my ear, and I pulled my hand back, and there was blood on it,’ Purser said. Purser said the airline paid for a Lyft ride to the hospital. Purser was diagnosed with a ruptured eardrum.” • I wonder if Delta paid for the eardrum. And you’ll never guess the type of plane: Boeing 737-900.

Manufacturing: “Boeing accused of being ‘unprepared’ for federal mediation as strike continues” (Guardian). “IAM Local 751 went into negotiations with Boeing and a federal mediator on Tuesday, but talks reportedly did not initially go well with union officials accusing the company of coming into the negotiation unprepared. ‘We will not mince words – after a full day of mediation, we are frustrated. The company was not prepared and was unwilling to address the issues you’ve made clear are essential for ending this strike: Wages and Pension,’ the union’s negotiating committee said in a letter to members. ‘The company doesn’t seem to be taking mediation seriously,’ the negotiating committee said. ‘We are fighting for what is right and just – for what we have earned over the past 16 years.’” And: “Bruce McFarland, an instrumentation technician who has worked at Boeing for 36 years, explained he waited to get hired for a year after leaving the military because of how coveted jobs at Boeing were. That is no longer the case, he said, and the company now has difficulty hiring and retaining workers… If the company wants to be world class, it needs to start treating its workers as world class. The days are over of us just rolling over. We did that eight years ago, and we’re not doing that again. We’re not backing down.’” • Again, why aren’t seats, plural, on the Board a demand? Do we have a machinist in the readership who can answer?

Manufacturing: “Boeing lays off thousands of executives, managers, non-union contractors amid strike” (UPI). ” Boeing said Wednesday it is temporarily laying off tens of thousands of managers, executives and non-union contractors as the strike by 33,000 International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union members continues.” • Presumably the managers and executives are at-will employees? Why not just fire them?

Manufacturing: “How much trouble is Boeing in?” (The Economist). “Pay is at the centre of the latest dispute. Boeing offered its employees a 25% rise over four years; its workers are demanding 40%. That would be less of a problem for the company than it sounds—.” More: “Boeing may take comfort in its vast backlog of orders for passenger jets. But Airbus’s is far bigger. The European firm is likely to manufacture around 770 planes this year, and its share price is close to its pre-pandemic high. Airbus also recently announced that it would launch a new aircraft by the end of the decade. Boeing may not be at risk of collapse, but the longer it takes to spin up its engines again, the further behind it will fall.”

Manufacturing: “The Boeing strike has already cost the company and its workers $572 million – and the pace of losses is climbing” (CNN). • So take that pencil-necked MBA dude Brian West out of the loop and give the workers what they want. Why is this so hard?

Shipping: “From Dream to Disaster: The Heartbreaking Saga of a Vintage Cruise Ship” (gCaptain). “The advertisement was easily overlooked—a dilapidated cruise ship for sale on Craigslist in 2008. But for Chris Willson, a tech entrepreneur from Utah, it was a siren’s call. That simple click led him into a 15-year odyssey of passion, toil, over $1 million in expenses and ultimate sinking heartbreak.” • A hole in the water….

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 56 Greed) (CNN). One week ago: 44 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 19 at 1:18:48 PM ET.

Gallery

Klimt!

Class Warfare

“Diddy ‘as bad as Epstein,’ says officer who saw his sex rooms, hidden cameras during Miami mansion raid” (New York Post). “One of the Department of Homeland Security agents who helped raid Diddy’s Florida abode claimed that the music mogul had rooms that were clearly ‘dedicated to sex’ with cameras all around. ‘So if you were in those sex parties, you were being recorded from every possible angle, including angles you wouldn’t have known about,’ the source said…. ‘He also was able to watch the action remotely on his phone, cast it onto a TV in another part of the house,’ the source said. ‘He didn’t have to be in the room when the sex was happening, although he frequently was.’… Authorities say that some of Combs’ alleged victims are cooperating with authorities.” • Hmm. So, just out of curiosity, where the only men on tape the service providers Diddy hired? Commentary:

(Not sure on Kendzior as a source, but she seems to be right here.) These are not nice people at all.

“Department of Labor Recovers $109K in Back Wages, Damages from Employers Who Denied Full Wages to 359 Workers at 5 New Orleans Restaurants” (Department of Justice (JB)). “The department’s Wage and Hour Division determined Bobby Hebert’s Cajun Cannon, the Hideout Bar, Mambo’s, Oceana Grill, and the Olde NOLA Cookery deducted the cost of uniforms, order errors, liquor shortages, customer walk-outs and customer credit card disputes from employees’ wages in violation of federal regulations. The investigation recovered $109,154, including $54,577 in back wages and an equal amount in damages – for the tipped servers and bartenders. The investigations are part of an ongoing enforcement initiative by the division to identify violations in the restaurant industry and recover back wages. If warranted, the division will recover damages and assess civil money penalties.” • Oddly, no mention of this in the Times-Picayune that I can find

“Tribal Nations & Eco-Feminist Provisioning With Josefina Li” (Money on the Left). Li went to UMKC. “Economics is not a study of scarce resources among competing ends, but rather a study of social provisioning, that is how society organized themselves for social provision, and that includes social reproduction.” • Yep.

Provisioning housing, for example. Or not:

News of the Wired

“Do All Roads Lead to Philosophy on Wikipedia?: They Do About 97.3% of the Time” (OpenCulture). “Pull up the Wikipedia page for Mariya Takeuchi’s ‘Plastic Love,’ the 1984 single now known for re-popularizing the genre of Japanese ‘city pop.’ Then click the first of its links (not related to the language of the article itself), which leads to Takeuchi’s own page. If you keep following that same procedure, you’ll continue on to City Pop, then Japanese Pop Music, then Popular Music. Keep drilling down, and you’ll pass the very concepts of music and sound, then enter the realms of physics, the scientific method, logical propositions, and the philosophy of language. This is one example provided by the video above from YouTuber Not David, which investigates whether all roads on Wikipedia eventually lead to philosophy… The ‘philosophy game,’ as Not David calls it, is at all times subject to breakage, but also to un-breakage. At normal times, Orange Juice to Philosophy takes thirteen steps, Apple Juice to Philosophy takes fifteen steps; both the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers lie sixteen steps from Philosophy. But things go haywire if someone goes and, say, re-orders the links on the Awareness article so Psychology comes first.” • Hmm. Sounds like a game anyone can play. Readers?

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SC:

SC writes: “Here is a ‘quickie’ from another project, a ‘custom growing’ request that I took up out of interest in the ‘propagation how to’ as well as the neat DIY herbal medicine aspect.

SC further commments:

For several years I’ve been starting significant numbers of plants from seed for my own use and to give away in hope of encouraging people whose schedules permit to get into gardening. Early this year a friend who has been a regular distributee conveyed a contact’s request for Lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus), which can be made into an herbal infusion with anti-inflammatory properties (interestingly, one of the active components of LG is quercetin, which may have antiviral benefits. Also interesting, I have seen reports that ingesting lemongrass tea can make a person less palatable to mosquitos). This is a new plant to me; the idea of DIY herbal medicine is intriguing. The plant is easy to start from seed, though the germination rate, at ~30%, was disappointing and well below what the seed seller’s information led me to expect. My friend accepted a few plants and potted them up in outdoor soil. The pictured plant, started in late February and photographed in early August, is very large and robust compared with the ones I have kept, which I left in growing medium amended with slow-release fertilizer. The second photo is of a pot of Lemongrass tea. The species cannot survive Northern winters and the pictured plant will need to be overwintered indoors; it can be pruned back before bringing indoors and the harvested leaf will make quite a bit of tea.