2:00PM Water Cooler 9/26/2024 | naked capitalism

Bird Song of the Day

Sage Thrasher, Gunnison, Colorado, United States. Twelve minutes! I guess people become fascinated with the mimicry and wonder what will come next?

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Kamala’s speeches on the economy (transcripts).
2. Negotiations restart at Boeing, as suppliers and customers begin to feel pain.
3. Potential good news on the nasal spray front (albeit a mouse study).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

“Biden pretends to squish a bug on the table on The View after Whoopi Goldberg compared Trump to an insect following two assassination attempts” (Daily Mail). • Forty days to go, so there’s still time for the light bulb to go on in some lone gunperson’s brain….

2024

Less than fifty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Once again, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — no doubt there will be another liberalgasm after Oprah — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

* * *

Kamala (D): “FULL TRANSCRIPT: Kamala Harris’ Speech At Pittsburgh, PA (Sept. 25, 2024)” (The Singju Post (venue)).

And I promise you I will be pragmatic in my approach. I will engage in what called “bold, persistent experimentation.” Because I believe we shouldn’t be constrained by ideology and instead should seek practical solutions to problems. Realistic assessments of what is working and what is not. Applying metrics to our analysis. Applying facts to our analysis. And stay focused, then, not only on the crises at hand, but on our big goals. On what’s best for America over the long term.

And part of being pragmatic means taking good ideas from wherever they come. Listen, you all know my career. Andrea shared it with you. I am a devout public servant. I also know the limitations of government. I’ve always been and will always be, and be clear about this, I’ve always been and will always be a strong supporter of workers and unions. I also believe we need to engage those who create most of the jobs in America.

Look, I’m a capitalist. I believe in free and fair markets. I believe in consistent and transparent rules of the road to create a stable business environment. And I know the power of American innovation. I’ve been working with entrepreneurs and business owners my whole career.

And I believe companies need to play by the rules. Respect the rights of workers and unions and abide by fair competition. And if they don’t, I will hold them accountable. And if anyone has a question about that, just look at my record as Attorney General.

Look at my record in California, taking on the big banks for predatory lending.

For Kamala’s record on taking on big banks, see NC here. On the mortgage settlement after the Crash, see NC here. And in any case, if you believe Biden now, Kamala was practically co-president during his entire term. So why are we only hearing about this now, 40 days before the election? (And when did people start saying “Franklin Roosevelt” instead of “FDR”? Under Obama, wasn’t it? It always bugged me that now we leave out “Delano,” too.

Kamala (D): “Read the transcript of Kamala Harris’ exclusive solo MSNBC interview” (MSNBC). The start:

RUHLE: Madam Vice President, you just laid out your economic vision for the future.

HARRIS: Yes.

RUHLE: But, still, there are lots of Americans who don’t see themselves in your plans. For those who say, these policies aren’t for me, what do you say to them?

HARRIS: Well, if you are hardworking, if you have the dreams and the ambitions and the aspirations of what I believe you do, you’re in my plan.

I have to tell you, I really love and am so energized by what I know to be the spirit and character of the American people. We have ambition. We have aspirations. We have dreams. We can see what’s possible. We have an incredible work ethic.

But not everyone has the access to the opportunities that allow them to achieve those things. But we don’t lack for those things. But not everyone gets handed stuff on a silver platter. And so my vision for the economy — I call it an opportunity economy — is about making sure that all Americans, wherever they start, wherever they are, have the ability to actually achieve those dreams and those ambitions, which include, for middle-class families, just being able to know that their hard work allows them to get ahead, right?

I think we can’t and we shouldn’t aspire to have an economy that just allows people to get by. People want to do more than just get by. They want to get ahead. And I come from the middle class.

The rest of it is in substance the same as the Pittsburgh speech, except (naturally) no mention of FDR (Pittsburgh being a union town). Commentary:

Strong interview for @KamalaHarris just now w/@SRuhle on @MSNBC. Good, detailed conversation on the economy. The @VP made a good case for her plan and the values behind it.

— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) September 25, 2024

I think Axelrod is stretching it with “conversation.” (Here the Daily Mail uses “how you gonna pay for it” as a gotcha; NC readers know about MMT, so there’s no gotcha here. Kamala doesn’t know, and so slithers off into “fair share” foofra.

* * *

Trump (R): “In blow to Trump campaign, Nebraska won’t go through with electoral vote change” (Scripps). “In a blow to the Republican party and its presidential nominee, Donald Trump, Nebraska’s governor said Tuesday he wouldn’t call a special session to change how electoral votes in the state are awarded. The decision follows a key state senator saying he would not support the effort. Former President Trump and his allies have been pressuring the state to change its 32-year law that awards electoral votes by congressional district instead of a statewide vote, otherwise known as a winner-take-all system. In winner-take-all states, the candidate winning the popular vote receives all of the state’s electoral votes. But in Maine and Nebraska, the state’s popular vote winner receives two electoral votes, and the popular vote winner in each congressional district receives one electoral vote. Nebraska has three congressional districts, and the Republican party believes their candidate will win two along with the two electoral votes coming from the state’s popular vote. But it’s Nebraska’s 2nd District that’s pushed the party to rally for a change in the electoral system, as the Omaha-based seat has tilted blue recently and could be the single electoral vote to decide a 269-269 tie.” • But no.

* * *

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Morbidity and Mortality

“Predictors for COVID-19-Specific and Non-COVID-19-Specific Deaths: A Cohort Study in Taiwan” (Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health (RK)). N = 2196. From the Abtract: “Predictors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-specific and non-COVID-19-specific deaths have not been extensively studied. This cohort study in Taiwan investigated predictors for COVID-19-specific and non-COVID-19-specific deaths among hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. From January to July 2022, 2196 COVID-19 patients at Taipei City Hospital were consecutively recruited in this cohort study… Our study findings suggest that vaccination and Paxlovid treatment are crucial for reducing SARS-CoV-2-specific mortalities, while comorbid patients need careful monitoring to reduce non-COVID-19-specific deaths.”

Science Is Popping

“Toward a Radically Simple Multi-Modal Nasal Spray for Preventing Respiratory Infection” (PDF) (Advanced Materials). Mouse study (sigh). See the Conflict of Interest statement (page 18). Nevertheless, very big if true. The Abstract:

Nasal sprays for pre-exposure prophylaxis against respiratory infections show limited protection (20–70%), largely due to their single mechanism of action—either neutralizing pathogens or blocking their entry at the nasal lining, and a failure to maximize the capture of respiratory droplets, allowing them to potentially rebound and reach deeper airways. This report introduces the Pathogen Capture and Neutralizing Spray (PCANS), which utilizes a multi-modal approach to enhance efficacy. PCANS coats the nasal cavity, capturing large respiratory droplets from the air, and serving as a physical barrier against a broad spectrum of viruses and bacteria, while rapidly neutralizing them with over 99.99% effectiveness. The formulation consists of excipients identified from the FDA’s Inactive Ingredient Database and Generally Recognized as Safe list to maximize efficacy for each step in the multi-modal approach. PCANS demonstrates nasal retention for up to 8 hours in mice. In a severe Influenza A mouse model, a single pre-exposure dose of PCANS leads to a >99.99% reduction in lung viral titer and ensures 100% survival, compared to 0% in the control group. PCANS suppresses pathological manifestations and offers protection for at least 4 hours. This data suggest PCANS as a promising daily-use prophylactic against respiratory infections.

And from the Conclusion:

PCANS presents a promising chemoprophylactic approach against respiratory infections. Besides its potential to act as a first line of defense against respiratory pathogens and emerging variants for which there are no vaccines available, our approach could also be potentially used as an added layer of protection with existing vaccines. Given its broad-spectrum prophylactic activity and shelf stability, we anticipate PCANS holds the potential for global distribution, especially in countries with low vaccination rates against respiratory pathogens. Alongside, the benefits of PCANS can also be extended to immunocompromised patients, high-risk individuals with co-morbidities, and vaccine-hesitant populations. Its pocket-sized spray format allows for easy portability, making it convenient to carry during social gatherings and travel. With these significant benefits, we believe PCANS will experience rapid widespread adoption, enhancing the accessibility of respiratory infection prevention.

Let’s see what the regulators think. And Big Pharma.

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

GDP: “United States GDP Growth Rate” (Trading Economics). “The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter of 2024, unchanged from the second estimate and above an upwardly revised 1.6% expansion in the first quarter.”

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” (Trading Economics). “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US dropped by 4,000 from the previous week to 218,000 on the period ending September 21st, below market expectations of a rise to 225,000, and reaching a new 4-month low. Despite this decline, the claim count remained above the averages seen earlier this year, as the US labor market has softened since its post-pandemic peak, although it remains historically tight.”

Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” (Trading Economics). “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US were loosely unchanged from the prior month in August of 2024, compared to the revised 9.8% surge in July which was the highest in four years, and contrasting sharply with market expectations of a 2.6% drop. The result challenged the growing pessimism over manufacturing activity in the United States, suggesting the current slowdown may be temporary.”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” (Trading Economics). “The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production index fell to -18 in September 2024, from 6 in the previous month, marking the lowest reading in 14 months and way below forecasts of 9.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing, workers union to resume talks on Friday” (Reuters). So much for the “final” part of “Best And Final Offer.” “Negotiators from Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will meet with federal mediators in a bid to break the deadlock, after two days of previous talks collapsed a week ago….”

Manufacturing: “Can the Machinists Save Boeing from Its Management?” (Labor Notes). “While Boeing wailed that the strike may cause mortal wounds to the company, the Machinists union has for decades been fighting against the company’s self-wounding practices: rampant outsourcing, undermining of quality inspections, moving work to non-union shops, and hollowing out what used to be a coveted family-sustaining job. Company policies have resulted in the loss of experienced workers, production delays, mismatched and shoddy parts, and the disastrous quality lapses that led to an Alaska Airlines door plug blowout in January. It was the union that was originally responsible for pushing the separation of quality inspection from production pressures, said Steve Cabana, a quality assurance inspector for 13 years. ‘Having quality separate in the supervisory chain is the only way quality can have any teeth,’ he said. ‘I can look at a process and stop it.’ This is not true at vendors the company buys parts from, Cabana said, where they have ‘the same management system for manufacturing and quality.’ ‘That’s how the company figured it could save money by outsourcing, because other people didn’t have the same rigorous standards,’ Cabana said. ‘It’s a fragile network of suppliers who honestly aren’t compensated all that well for the work that they do,’ said Mylo Lang, an apprentice machinist at Auburn with six years at the company. ‘They’ve really been squeezing them, in fact, over the years.’ In Boeing’s own plants, the company has tried to slash inspections, too. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires in-person inspections by qualified workers, but in 2017 Boeing tried to speed up production by having mechanics sign off on their own work. At the company’s assembly plant in North Charleston, South Carolina, which currently has no union, the lack of worker power and input meant the company tested out cuts to quality inspections there first, around 2017, then expanded into the Puget Sound plants, where union members rallied to stop the cuts, flooding meetings and making the question a shop floor issue.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing confirms production of 737s has halted” (Fortune). “Boeing’s production of 737 jets has come to a “complete halt” as the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) strike continues, according to a Bank of America analyst note sent out on Tuesday. Two separate representatives for Boeing confirmed the production stoppage to Fortune. ‘Airplane production in Washington state is temporarily paused including work on the 737 MAX, 767, 777/777X, P-8, KC-46A Tanker, E-7 Wedgetail,’ a spokesperson wrote Fortune in an email Wednesday. ‘Work at our Fabrication sites in Washington and Oregon will also temporarily pause. Employees not represented by this union will continue to report to work as normal.’ Boeing’s stock fell more than 2% on Wednesday, at the time of publication. The stoppage’s full impact on actual deliveries of the planes ‘remains uncertain,’ BofA analysts wrote. But the pace has nonetheless ‘slowed significantly.’ Only two 737s have been delivered in the last week, which they say is ‘well below normal levels.’ As for the 787 jets—a different, less embattled model—Boeing has made zero deliveries over the past week, and has only delivered two in all of September. But BofA ‘expects Boeing to maintain the same levels of rollouts compared to last month” because As a result, BofA maintained its rating on the stock as neutral.” • That “unaffected by unions” (carbon fibre) makes me think. I believe Boeing promised to make the next aircraft, the “797,” in Seattle, presumbly also from carbon fibre, if they began it during the life of the contract currently being negotiated. But did Boeing promise the 797 would be built with union labor? Readers?

Manufacturing: “Spirit Aerosystems beginning to see effects of Boeing strikes – reports” (Airport Technology). “Boeing parts supplier Spirit AeroSystems has reportedly warned it may begin furloughing employees soon if the strikes at the aircraft manufacturer’s production plants continue much longer. The supplier, which is set to fall back under Boeing’s control next year, is currently using the lull in work at the aircraft factories to address a backlog of orders but will soon begin seeing the effects of the work stoppage.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike squeezes California aerospace suppliers, including Independent Forge in Orange” (Orange County Register). “Machine tool and metal shops across the region are feeling the effects of the Boeing strike, as is a complex supply chain that stretches across the world…. ‘This could be devastating for us,’ said Andrew Flores, president of Independent Forge Co. Inc. ‘Forgings are the start of most parts made in the aviation business, and that’s the first thing they want to stop.’… The company also is worried about a second strike that emerged earlier this week when unionized machinists with a general aviation unit owned by Textron Corp. in Kansas walked off their jobs for higher wages and benefits, Flores said.” • Hmm. Only Textron, then?

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike leaves Asian airlines sweating on plane deliveries” (The Business Times). “The Seattle factory strike crippling production at Boeing is triggering delays to 737 Max deliveries across Asia, a region that’s already home to some of the biggest order backlogs for the flagship aircraft. The US manufacturer is due to hand over 981 Max jets to carriers in Asia, led by Air India and Indonesia’s Lion Air, by 2030, according to data from Cirium. That’s close to one-third of all scheduled deliveries of the aircraft worldwide over that period. But with Boeing at loggerheads with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents some 33,000 Boeing employees who have been striking for almost two weeks, concerns are escalating about the reliability of the plane pipeline. Responding to queries from Bloomberg News, Korean Air Lines, Vietjet Aviation and Japan Airlines said they were either suffering delivery delays due to the strike, expecting planes to arrive late or concerned about handover dates slipping. Others including Singapore Airlines said they were working with Boeing on delivery schedules in light of the factory shutdown.

Manufacturing: “Senators want to see major changes at Boeing. The FAA says that could take years” (Politico). “The head of the Federal Aviation Administration warned senators Wednesday that ensuring troubled planemaker Boeing rights its ship will take years — not months — even with the FAA looking over its shoulder…. But (FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker) said that while Boeing has improved on short-term challenges in its manufacturing lines, ‘(we) would be kidding ourselves to think you can change 170,000 people, culture in 18 months — so it’s going to be a long haul.’”

Tech: “Millions of Vehicles Could Be Hacked and Tracked Thanks to a Simple Website Bug” (Wired).

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 65 Greed) (CNN). One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 25 at 1:55:41 PM ET.

The Current Cinema

Coppola’s Megalopolis:

Universal derision from the reviewers, which intrigues me. Has anyone seen it?

Gallery

Quite modern:

Class Warfare

“Amazon Logistics under investigation for alleged labor violations” (Seattle Times). “Seattle’s Office of Labor Standards is investigating Amazon Logistics — the company’s vast network of delivery services — for alleged violations of labor laws, including the city’s ordinance requiring paid sick time for gig workers that went into effect this year. The investigation appears focused on Amazon’s Flex drivers, who operate like gig workers and make deliveries for the company using their own vehicles and on their own schedule.”

News of the Wired

“The history of telecoms is at an end” (Intermedia). The deck: “In his latest book, William Webb argues that we mostly have all the connectivity we need. The telecoms industry needs to refocus away from technical innovation and towards efficiency. Governments and regulators, he says, will need a new mindset.” • Perhaps even too much.

“The power of leisure: How everyday hobbies stop cognitive decline” (Study Finds). “In community centers across the country, seniors gather for book clubs, chess matches, and art classes. These social hubs of mental stimulation may be more than just pleasant diversions – they could be unofficial cognitive health clinics, according to new research. The study suggests that engaging in cognitively stimulating leisure activities (CSLAs) might be key to preserving cognitive function in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This research offers hope for those looking to stave off cognitive decline and potentially reduce their risk of developing dementia.” • Maybe I should stop reading Model Railroader and build a layout, Perky Pat-style. Not.

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From: JG:

JG writes: “My old neighbor gave me the Roseville pitcher decorated with an abstract landscape and a chain of bows in relief. The mesh pattern on the vase comes from the screen window which provided the lighting on the subject. The zinnias came from another kind neighbor.” A lovely “pitcher” indeed!

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