by calculated risk 2024/9/27 09:15:00 AM
Here is a graph of year-over-year change in shelters from the CPI report and housing from this morning’s PCE report. Both are valid until August 2024.
CPI Shelter rose 5.2% year over year in August, up from 5.0 in July but down from its cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are almost flat compared to the previous year, these measures are It will continue to decline gradually into next year..
The second graph shows PCE prices, core PCE prices, and core existing homes for the past three months (annualized).
Key policies are slightly below the Fed’s targets on a three-month basis. Note: Seasonality appears to remain distorting PCE prices in the first quarter, especially in January.
3-month annualized change:
PCE price index: 1.5%
Core PCE price: 2.1%
Core minus housing: 1.5%
