All tactics and strategies are noise before defeat.
-Sun Tzu
Israel is currently in the midst of an escalating movement against Hezbollah, in hopes of putting an end to Hezbollah’s shelling of Israel’s northern border areas, among other things, and depending on who is doing the counting, anywhere from 60,000 to 60,000 people 100,000 settlers are being evacuated. The latest is Israel’s announcement that it is conducting limited ground operations in southern Lebanon, which has been widely covered in the Western and Middle Eastern press. Needless to say, an invasion is an invasion. Recall that Hezbollah launched an operation in the region on October 8 in solidarity with Hamas and said it would cease attacks if Israel signs a permanent ceasefire with Hamas.
Not only is this a dynamic situation, as Lambert likes to say, but commentators are also hampered by biased media coverage and control of coverage of war-related events in large parts of Israel. are. For example, many commentators who consider themselves anti-globalist and therefore not pro-Israel still treat pager explosions as interfering with Hezbollah’s military communications. Alastair Crook, a frequent visitor to Hezbollah facilities (including rocket/missile silos), said the Hezbollah militia’s operations moved to its own fiber-optic network in 2006 or earlier, with controls in place to detect any intrusion. He continues to claim that it was done. Pagers were used by members of civilian forces and were never used in military operations. He believes they remain safe even after the successful assassination of Nasrallah. In an interview with Judge Napolitano, he argued that the attack was the result of a HUMINT violation (he saw the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu had approved the opportunity given to him by the US through new intelligence), and that he did not want to tell his superiors what to do. Never use a mobile phone, which emphasizes that it is difficult to get people to commit crimes (note that members of the Iranian Republican Guard were also killed at the same meeting; the violation was from the Iranian side). possible).
So, relying on the pro-Israel triumphalism prevalent in the Western press, yes, Hezbollah has lost most of its senior leadership and has also been shown to have suffered serious security violations, and this This probably means that at least internal discipline was uneven. But that network is said to be intact and secure (whether it was used exclusively as it should be is another matter), and Hezbollah reportedly (almost all of those killed were over 60 years old, so a more strenuous operation is being carried out), and the younger men quickly adapted, with no negative consequences for their roles at the top. (I’m assuming it could be positive if possible). However, the extent to which Israel was able to determine where key figures were at all times is highly problematic, and Hezbollah needs to understand how it happened very quickly to prevent it from happening again.
There is also a widespread tacit assumption that decapitating almost the entire Hezbollah leadership would hinder Hezbollah’s activities. So far, that doesn’t seem to be happening.
new:
🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israeli troops are unable to enter Lebanon because Hezbollah fighters are constantly bombing their positions – Al Manar pic.twitter.com/IswKmgfgbW
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) October 1, 2024
Hezbollah announced that it fired a volley of Fadi-4 rockets at the headquarters of Israel’s Military Intelligence Unit 8200 and Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv.
🟠 Live updates: https://t.co/TFMVNuSxKG pic.twitter.com/CkQWpGaDvH
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 1, 2024
To be clear, this does not mean that Hezbollah will immediately de-escalate, for example, expand its attacks on Israel. The distance after the pager attack reportedly increased by approximately 50 kilometers, and the population within the range of the bombardment increased to 2 million people. This does not mean that Hezbollah is targeting civilians; even if it attacks military facilities, civilians are likely to be in the area as well, and in addition to air defenses and areas where intercepted rockets and missiles will fall. This means there is a possibility of it falling. However, the expanded firing area means that more civilians will need to enter safe rooms and shelters in the event of a Hezbollah attack. That’s not good for nerves or for the economy.
However, expelling Hezbollah from the border area is only one of Israel’s objectives. Another is to involve the US more deeply, ideally by sending more air support and troops (I feel sorry for that bankrupt oil company.;I doubt how much of a hindrance that would be). The ideal scenario would be to get Iran to do something that masquerades as a sufficient attack on Israel to force the United States to launch a full-scale attack on Iran.
In fact, there was much criticism in the Arab world of Iran’s lack of action. One of the reasons for not attacking directly and supporting allies is that, as noted above, a direct attack on Israel is exactly what Israel wants. Second, recently elected President Massoud Pezeshkian was against it and was being induced by the West to believe that Iran would get sanctions relief if he behaved well. Pezeshkian is now making a Putin-style tirade that he was indeed fooled and admitting he made a mistake.
But even if Mr. Pezeshkian had not insisted on holding fire, Iran would by now have more latitude and stricter authority over the assassination of Hamas political leader and negotiator Ismail Haniyeh. It’s not clear whether it was resolved. In the second half of this Danny Haiphong show, He speaks with Professor Mohamed Mirandi (He was about 1000 meters from the massive explosion that killed Nasrallah). Mirandi points out that Iran was restrained from making any serious response as long as it appeared that a ceasefire was being negotiated. Even if everyone in the Resistance with a functioning brain cell knew that the negotiations were a huge head fake, Iran was in a position where it was portrayed by the US and Israel as having sabotaged the possibility of a resolution to the Gaza conflict. You don’t want to be.
More assets seem to be flowing into the region, even if not in large numbers.
🚨 Last night, the UK dispatched a huge A400M military transport plane from its base in Cyprus to Tel Aviv.
The A400 can carry 116 soldiers and a payload of 81,600 pounds. pic.twitter.com/hrttcCQROU
— Declassified UK (@declassifiedUK) October 1, 2024
Before claiming that this brief summary does not glorify Israel’s great successes, it is worth remembering that the Shock and Awe campaign does not have a great track record. Indeed, although the launch of Israel’s invasions of Lebanon in 1982 and 2006 were initially heralded as shocking decisive blows, Israel ultimately lost both wars.
And if you want an even more jaundiced view, John Mearsheimer met with a Spectator reporter on the last day, and it was clear that Mearsheimer was not satisfied with the reporter’s enthusiasm for Israel’s spate of attacks on Hezbollah. I was hoping that it would confirm my reading. Mearsheimer displayed impressive enthusiasm as he calmly exposed the audience’s assumptions. This is such a great interview that I won’t spoil it by sharing Mearsheimer’s key points. Perhaps his most important point is that Hezbollah does not appear to have been defeated at all, and if that is correct, then Israel will have a very long war, even though it is completely unprepared to wage a long war. You will face a difficult situation.
This interview will also help spread the word to friends and colleagues who may accept highly reliable analysis that contradicts Israel Cheers media.
