2:00PM Water Cooler 10/8/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Kind readers, thanks to so many of you for asking after me yesterday, when I had described my fall. In fact, I am, as I thought I would be, in form today. No sprain or tear, which is what I was most worried about (since my back is stiff as the best of times). A few twinges in my knee. Scrapes nicely scabbed over. The whole episode brings home to me how lucky I have been, not only in this particular episode, but generally: Many, many people have experienced more pain in their lifetimes than I ever have. –lambert P.S. Also a hat tip to Big Pharma for the pills.

Bird Song of the Day

Back to the mimidae!

Tropical Mockingbird,Punto Sin Retorno, Ocotepeque, Honduras. “Imitando otras especies: 0:30 (Melanerpes aurifrons) 1:08 (Falco sparverius) 1:28 (Camptostoma imberbe) 2:00 (Piaya cayana) 2:08 (Rupornis magnirostris).” Quite a virtuoso!

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Trump’s 2020 polling underestimates vs. margins in the Swing States today (map).
2. The Feds launder migrants through NGOs to firms owned by the American gentry.
3. Boeing’s stock.

Look for the Helpers

…. but it still can be nice.

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than forty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error, Trump gained a few inches of ground in the trench warfare (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

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The other day I muttered about making a map putting Trump’s 2020 voting underestimates against Trump (or Kamala’s) margins in Swing States. Hat tip to alert reader hk for doing the hard work and digging out the numbers. I did the easy part, which was making the handy map:

Legend: Numbers in Blue (Kamala) or Red (Trump) show the leading candidate in 2024. Naturally, orange numbers show Trump’s underestimates in 2020.

Obviously, if the polls in 2024 are off by as much, and in the same direction, as the polls in 2020, this election looks very, very different (and, in fact, in the bag for Trump). But are they? Opinions differ (“Infinite are the arguments of mages” –Ursula LeGuin).

Lambert here: I am not a polling maven!

“CNN data guru declares Trump will win White House if he outperforms current polling by one point” (FOX). “CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said that the presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so close that if Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House. ‘We‘re talking about the closest campaign in a generation where ,’ Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Friday.” • Oh.

“The Asterisk on Kamala Harris’s Poll Numbers” (The Atlantic). “The 2016 election lives in popular memory as perhaps the most infamous polling miss of all time, but 2020 was quietly even worse. The polls four years ago badly underestimated Trump’s support even as they correctly forecast a Joe Biden win. A comprehensive postmortem by the American Association for Public Opinion Research concluded that 2020 polls were the least accurate in decades, overstating Biden’s advantage by an average of 3.9 percentage points nationally and 4.3 percentage points at the state level over the final two weeks of the election…. According to The New York Times, Biden led by 10 points in Wisconsin but won it by less than 1 point; he led Michigan by 8 and won by 3; he led in Pennsylvania by 5 and won by about 1. As of this writing, Harris is up in all three states, but by less than Biden was. .” More: “(Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute) told me that, in 2020, the people working the phones for Siena frequently reported incidents of being yelled at by mistrustful Trump supporters. ‘In plain English, it was not uncommon for someone to say, ‘I’m voting for Trump—fuck you,’” and then hang up before completing the rest of the survey, he said. (So much for the ‘shy Trump voter’ hypothesis.) In 2020, those responses weren’t counted. This time around, they are. Levy told me that including these ‘partials’ in 2020 would have erased nearly half of Siena’s error rate.” What if Trump voters are so disaffected that they lie about supporting Harris? Nobody seems to have mentioned that possibility. And: “‘In 2016, the feeling was that the problem we had was not capturing non-college-educated white voters, particularly in the Midwest,’ Chris Jackson, the head of U.S. public polling at Ipsos, told me. ‘But what 2020 told us is that’s not actually sufficient. There is some kind of political-behavior dimension that wasn’t captured in that education-by-race crosstab. So, essentially, what the industry writ large has done is, we’ve started really looking much more strongly at political variables.’ .” • Perhaps the Republican and Democrat voters are fundamentally different not along ideological lines but in terms of capability. Republicans, after all, hated their party leadership and overthrew it. Democrats have done no such thing. Perhaps that level of commitment carries over to turnout (though I grant this possibility wouldn’t apply to undecided or irregular voters, unless they thought this capability worthy of emulation). One might speculate that Trump’s “fight, fight, fight!,” and continued presence on the campaign trail despite not one but two assassination attempts feeds into this propensity.

“Can we trust the polls this year?” (VOX). Various: “It has been getting harder because of Trump’s ability to turn out the kinds of voters many polls have trouble capturing.” If these “kinds” of voters are irregular or disaffected, that would mean that Trump is making “our democracy” work better than Democrats. More: “The phrase I heard most in my conversations was a worry about ‘solving for the last problem’ or ‘fighting the last battle.’ In other words, lessons have been learned, but will those lessons apply this time around? In 2016, for example, pollsters addressed some of the reasons they overestimated Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012 but missed that state-level surveys were overrepresenting college graduates. That miss ended up artificially boosting Hillary Clinton’s support, especially in the Midwest battleground states that proved decisive.” And a list of the worries: Nonresponse bias, unlikely and late-deciding voters, hard-to-poll subgroups (approached by looking crosstab results that “can yield conclusions with margins of error much larger than those of a poll’s topline results”). And tips: Look at the sample size, methodology, firm, margin of error, and stay skeptical.

“So, you’re sure the presidential race will be close?” (Roll Call). “Remember, polls are based on turnout assumptions, and if Harris generates stronger turnout among younger voters, voters of color, former Republicans, and college-educated whites, she could outperform the polling.” • I’m doubtful. I’m seeing two swing states where voters meet the “crawl over broken glass” turnout test. Both sets of voters are Trump voters. The first is PA, where Trump was almost assassinated in Butler. The second is NC, where Trump voters in WNC may feel they have been abandoned (and disrespected) by the Biden Administration’s response to Helene. Now, NC cuts both ways, because those Trump voters, motivated though they be, simply may not be able to reach the polls (the Post Office isn’t getting many absentee ballots right now, for example). However, if Republicans successfullly frame the Biden Administration’s response to Milton as similar to the response to Helene, then WNC sentiment may spread to Georgia, another swing state hit hard by Helene, or even go national. And I think the Democrat counter-messaging on abortion is preaching to the choir.

“Polling isn’t broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges” (ABC). Report from the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research in May: “(Cameron McPhee, chief methodologist for SSRS} told me the industry has moved toward agreement that multi-mode approaches are the best way to get a more representative sample. She stressed that it’s not that one mode is better, but rather a combination is ‘better than the sum of its parts.’ For instance, one SSRS survey experiment saw improved response rates for state-level surveys that recruited respondents by various means, including postcard or SMS text message, and gave respondents six potential access points to respond: URL, QR code (directing them to the survey), text, email, a phone number for respondents to call (inbound dialing) and SSRS reaching out to them by phone (outbound dialing).” • I wonder if the different recruitment mode affects the response. I might not be “the same person” answering a call as I am when making a considered response to email.

* * *

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

“A Troubled Place” (Christopher F. Rufo and Christina Buttons, CIty Journal) (Charleroi, PA). This is well worth reading in full. It pains me to quote the Manhattan Institute, but they went and got the story, credit due. Here is the nut graf: “The basic pattern in Charleroi has been replicated in thousands of cities and towns across America: the federal government has opened the borders to all comers; a web of publicly funded NGOs has facilitated the flow of migrants within the country; local industries have welcomed the arrival of cheap, pliant labor. And, under these enormous pressures, places like Charleroi often revert to an older form: that of the company town, in which an open conspiracy of government, charity, and industry reshapes the society to its advantage—whether the citizens want it or not.” And: “The best way to understand the migrant crisis is to follow the flow of people, money, and power—in other words, to trace the supply chain of human migration.” • So this is “our democracy.” I wondered who was driving where migrants would relocate (though I’m sure some is spontaneous): The (Democrat-leaning and -funded) NGOs. And all to service the American gentry, too (making them the real problem, what a surprise). Clamp down on “local industries” and problem solved.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Manufacturing: “Why Every Day the Boeing Strike Lasts Is a Bigger Problem for the Stock” (Barron’s). “A month or so shouldn’t pressure Boeing’s balance sheet too much. Longer than that, the company, and its investors, will feel more significant pain…. The cash burn can go on for a while, though. Boeing ended the second quarter with almost $13 billion in cash and short-term investments on its books. Boeing also had $10 billion of unused borrowing capacity on its revolving credit lines. With some $23 billion available, Boeing can, in theory, survive for months. The fact that Boeing can survive a strike that long doesn’t mean it should, or that its lenders will be happy. CFO Brian West is meeting with company lenders this week. The lending syndicate, which includes many banks, will want an update about the strike, how Boeing will minimize its cash burn, and what cash flow will look like as production ramps up following the work stoppage. West will likely reiterate his recent messaging that Boeing is actively managing liquidity and that his company will maintain its investment-grade credit rating, which Wall Street has interpreted as a willingness to sell new stock to raise more cash…. Coming into Tuesday’s trading, Boeing stock was down about 37% since an emergency door plug blew out of a 737 MAX 9 jet while in flight on Jan. 5. Shares are down about 4% since the start of the strike. The relative moves show what investors are most concerned about. Production quality and the 737 MAX matter more than the strike—for now.” • Of course, the two are related. You can’t fix production quality without recreating a functional shop floor, and you can’t do that while screwing the workers as hard as you can.

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 72 Greed (previous close: 70 Greed) (CNN). One week ago: 67 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 8 at 1:57:20 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Oil Supply/Price. “Conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices” (Rapture Ready). Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 180. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don’t?

Photo Book

Looks like a chip:

Zeitgeist Watch

News of the Wired

“The blogosphere is in full bloom. The rest of the internet has wilted” (Guardian). “Like many of us, he realised that what came to be known as the blogosphere could be a modern realisation of Jürgen Habermas’s idea of “the public sphere” because it was open to all, everything was discussable and social rank didn’t determine who was allowed to speak. But what he – and we – underestimated was the speed and comprehensiveness that tech corporations such as Google and Facebook would enclose that public sphere with their own walled gardens in which “free speech” could be algorithmically curated while the speakers were intensively surveilled and their data mined for advertising purposes.” • Well worth a read. And allow to me beg everyone wjho can turn on their RSS feed to do so; RSS is great, and if the right vertical is populated by RSS, RSS is more effective than search, at least for covering daily beats.

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SR:

SR writes: “More rabbit brush.”

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