Eve is here. Simon Watkins is a hardcore neocon, so his posts should be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, he raises the option, which Israel has never mentioned before, of launching an operation from Azerbaijan if it were to attack Iran. It would be great if Connor could give his opinion. As you can see from the map below, Israel could enter Azerbaijan through Turkiye and Armenian or Georgian airspace. Watkins points out (without naming names) that neither Georgia nor Armenia are members (both countries are associate members of NATO, and Armenia is an associate member). , has undermined its own credibility by claiming that the flight path to Azerbaijan is through NATO airspace. It is a member of the NATO Parliament and has a permanent representative to NATO; like Ukraine, Georgia was also invited to join NATO, and Russia went to war to prevent Georgia from joining NATO).
Another reason to question the film is that it portrays Iran as having Russian assistance in its nuclear program. Scott Ritter, who has some knowledge of the nuclear program, told Judge Napolitano today that he believed it would take just a few days for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.
So would either country do Israel a favor and risk some kind of retaliation by Russia (not necessarily military, of course)? So what about Tolkien? President Erdoğan is doing everything in his power to vehemently criticize Israeli genocide while doing virtually nothing to stop it (import and export bans have the potential to do real damage). Not as good as transshipment gas; Connor. In yesterday’s must-read postdetails how Tolkier’s actions towards Israel do not even rise to the level of a wet noodle flogging). His people are very angry at his inaction. Can we afford to allow Israel to fly over Turkiye to preempt an attack on Iran from Azerbaijan?
And we assume that to carry out this plan, Israel would also need to move significant kit, which would be visible to Iran and Russia. Could Israel realistically install the necessary logistics and communications from bases that are unlikely to be installed for US/NATO use? Reader sanity check recommended.
Written by Simon Watkins, former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and best-selling author. He was Head of Foreign Exchange Institutional Sales and Trading at Credit Lyonnais and later Director of Foreign Exchange at Bank of Montreal. He went on to serve as Weekly Publishing Director and Lead Writer for Business Monitor International, Director of Fuel Oil Products at Platts, and Global Editor-in-Chief of Research at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. It was first published in oil price.com
- Amid escalating missile attacks, Israel is under increasing pressure to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which reportedly now has enough material for three nuclear warheads.
- Senior-level discussions suggest Russia may be supporting Iran’s nuclear technology in exchange for missile support in the Ukraine war.
- A full-scale attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities is technically possible, but there is a risk of serious retaliatory missile attacks.
As Tel Aviv continues to exchange attacks and counterattacks with Tehran and its proxies, most recently on October 1, when Iran fired 181 missiles at targets inside Israel, many enthusiastic The obvious question for Middle East watchers is why Israel doesn’t just wipe it out. Are Iran’s developing nuclear facilities the greatest danger to Iran and its allies? The danger is more immediate than many think, as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned in May that Iran has enough material to build at least three nuclear warheads. It is quite possible that there is. The only saving grace in this fact so far has been that the Islamic Republic is even further away from finalizing the design of the key technical elements of such a weapon — a senior security official close to the US presidential administration According to people involved, it took about nine months. Officials close to the European Commission spoke exclusively over the past month. oil price.com. However, recent discussions at the highest levels of G7 governments have raised the possibility that Russia is assisting Iran in this regard in exchange for missiles and drones that Tehran would provide Moscow for its continued war with Iran. It has now become clear that the situation has changed.
Certainly, the lack of information on this issue does not prevent Israel from attacking Iran’s main nuclear facilities. Tel Aviv and Washington have long known exactly where all the key elements of Iran’s nuclear program are located. It is natural to think that the main targets would include the large nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Arak, Parchin, Qom, and Bushehr, as well as the major uranium mines in Sagand and Kuching. Overall, Iran disclosed 21 facilities related to its nuclear program to the IAEA during the monitoring period, but there were additional facilities where the agency detected the presence of highly enriched uranium. It is believed that several additional sites that Iran had kept secret from the IAEA have since been revealed by various sources. Further complicating matters is that the Israeli Air Force has so many bases to attack, especially since its main operational airport is about 900 miles from the farthest Iranian target, and some bases are located deep underground. But will Israel succeed in striking some of its largest sites, which would at least significantly slow down Iran’s nuclear development schedule? According to the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for September 28, 2012 (‘Israel: Possible military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities”) The answer may be yes.
First, the airstrike force would need to take off from a position that would allow the best air route from Israel to Iran. Azerbaijan appears to be at the top of the list, and Israel has forged significantly closer ties in recent years, including providing weapons to help retake Nagorno-Karabakh last year. Since then, Israel’s military presence in the country could increase further by passing through the airspace of NATO countries, according to U.S. and EU sources consulted by OilPrice.com. Its presence has increased dramatically. This would avoid the more problematic route from Jordan through Iraq or Saudi Arabia. Second, a suitable bomb would be required to penetrate the defenses of deep underground facilities. Some of these locations are at least 100 feet deep compared to the 100-foot depth of the underground bunker where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was neutralized by a 2,000-pound U.S.-made BLU-109 penetrating bomb on September 27. It is believed to be 300 feet deep. You will need powerful weapons. At the time of the CRS’s 2012 report, it highlighted that the United States was already selling “27” 2,000-pound class and “28” 5,000-pound class Israeli guided bomb units (GBUs). But importantly, he added, “the United States may have secretly provided Israel with a much more sophisticated system, or Israel may have developed its own system.” Beyond the additional logistical considerations in such a large-scale operation, it is crucial that Iran clearly believes it can carry out a successful operation in April, shortly after its missile attack on Israel. It is a fact. tehran closed nuclear facilities.
Such an attack by Israel on Iran’s main nuclear facilities is only one part of the equation; the other is what Iran and its allies might do in retaliation. This appears to form the dividing line between the views of current US President Joe Biden and his predecessor and current presidential candidate Donald Trump. And while Israel could carry out attacks on nuclear facilities without the United States, it would be difficult to deal with the consequences alone. Most notable in this context, repeated barrages of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at a wide range of targets across Israel were carried out in Tel Aviv without air support from the US and UK, despite the Iron Dome missile defense system. is very difficult to defend. According to recent information, news reportIn a previous missile attack on April 13, multiple Iranian missiles penetrated defensive shields and struck Israel’s Nevatim Air Base in the Negev desert, among other targets, according to satellite and social media footage. I was able to do that. The idea that Israel could destroy these missile facilities at the same time as Iran’s nuclear facilities is difficult given that not only are many buried deep underground, but many of the missiles are launched from highly maneuverable launchers. , looks very unrealistic. Israel may decide to take advantage of this opportunity in order to thwart Iran’s nuclear program without full US support, but this is clearly an unfavorable option.
Biden made it clear last week that he was not in favor of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, largely because President Barack Obama refused to respond to such a call from Israel. Seems to be the same. Then-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned in 2011 that if such an event were to occur, the United States would face blame and could become a target for retaliation from Iran through attacks on military bases and naval forces in the Middle East. He said there is. There may also be actions by Iran and its proxies to cause economic hardship to Western allies through attacks. Attacks on key oil sectors Sites recently analyzed by OilPrice.com. Furthermore, it is expected that Iran will encourage its supporters around the world to launch terrorist attacks against a broader range of targets associated with the United States in the West and East. That’s why Biden’s team remains focused on toughening sanctions as a key response to Iran’s escalating actions against Israel. This is also the view of the dovish Israeli cabinet. Conversely, hawks take Donald Trump’s view. Trump said last week (in response to Biden’s flat-out “no” response to Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities): That’s the biggest risk we have. The biggest risk we have is nuclear…soon they will have nuclear weapons. And then there will be problems. ” Given this, Israel may be waiting to launch a major attack against Iran if President Trump is elected president.
