by calculated risk October 16, 2024 11:32:00 AM
Note: I’ve received a lot of requests to repost this recently. So here’s another update on employment tracking during the presidential term. We frequently use presidential terms as indicators of time. You can also use House Speaker, Fed Chair, and other indicators.
Important: There are many differences between these periods. While overall employment declined in the 80s, participation rates increased in the 80s (younger population and women’s labor force participation), and participation rates are now generally lower. But these graphs give an overview of changes in employment.
The first graph shows changes in private sector pay officials from the time each president takes office to the end of his term. Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Trump only served one term.
GW Bush (red) took office after the stock market bubble burst, and left when the housing bubble burst. Mr. Obama (in dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and Great Recession. There was also a major recession in the early 1980s, right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) became president.
GHW A recession occurred toward the end of President Bush’s (light purple) term, but Clinton (light blue) remained president for eight years without experiencing a recession. 2020 saw a pandemic-related recession.
First is a table of private sector employment. The previous two top terms in the private sector were both under President Clinton.
| semester | private sector Jobs added (000) |
|---|---|
| biden | 14,5561 |
| clinton 1 | 10,876 |
| clinton 2 | 10,094 |
| obama 2 | 9,926 |
| reagan 2 | 9,351 |
| carter | 9,039 |
| reagan 1 | 5,363 |
| obama 1 | 1,907 |
| GHW Bush | 1,507 |
| GW Bush 2 | 443 |
| GW Bush 1 | -820 |
| playing cards | -2,192 |
| 144 months later. | |
Click on the graph to see a larger image.
The first graph covers only private employment.
Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green line), 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President GHW Bush (light purple), and President Clinton. Under President GW Bush, the number of people decreased by 377,000 to 20.97 million (light blue). And under President Obama, it gained 11,833,000 (dark dashed blue). During President Trump’s term (orange), the economy lost 2.135 million private sector jobs.
The big difference between the two presidents is public sector employment. Note: Public sector employment growth from 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 decennial censuses.
The public sector increased during Mr. Carter’s term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan’s term (up 1,414,000), during GHW Bush’s term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton’s term (up 1,934,000), and It increased during the Golden Week period. President Bush’s conditions (1,744,000 jobs increase). However, during Obama’s tenure, the public sector declined significantly (263,000 fewer jobs). During President Trump’s term, the economy lost 528,000 public sector jobs.
During the first 44 months of President Biden’s term, the economy added 1,633,000 public sector jobs (approximately 93% of public employment growth comes from state and local governments(approximately 55% for education).
and a table of public sector jobs. Public-sector employment growth was the highest during Biden’s term, outpacing the second term of the Reagan administration. Public sector employment declined the most during President Obama’s first term.
| semester | public sector Jobs added (000) |
|---|---|
| biden | 1,6331 |
| reagan 2 | 1,438 |
| carter | 1,304 |
| clinton 2 | 1,242 |
| GHW Bush | 1,127 |
| GW Bush 1 | 900 |
| GW Bush 2 | 844 |
| clinton 1 | 692 |
| obama 2 | 447 |
| reagan 1 | -twenty four |
| playing cards | -528 |
| obama 1 | -710 |
| 144 months later. | |
