by calculated risk 2024/10/17 10:00:00 AM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that the Housing Market Index (HMI) was 43, up from 41 the previous month. A number below 50 indicates that more builders see sales conditions as worse than good.
From NAHB:
Builder confidence grows despite affordability headwinds
Builder sentiment rises for second consecutive month despite tough affordability conditions as inflation gradually eases and builders expect mortgage rates to ease in coming months did.
Builder confidence in the new single-family home market was 43 in OctoberThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today showed an increase of 2 points from 41 in September.
“Although housing affordability remains low, builders are becoming more optimistic about market conditions in 2025,” said Carl Harris, chairman of NAHB, a custom home builder in Wichita, Kansas. “The card is still the election and housing policy remains the top priority.” To solve the candidate demographic problem, policymakers need to focus on supply-side solutions to the housing crisis. ”
“Even though the Fed’s easing cycle has begun, many potential homebuyers are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for interest rates to fall,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB. “We expect mortgage rates to fall unevenly in the coming quarters, which will improve housing demand but tighten the terms of development and construction loans, putting pressure on land supply. .”
The latest HMI survey also revealed that the percentage of construction companies that reduced prices remained stable in October at 32%, the same as the previous month. Meanwhile, the average price decline rate returned to its long-term trend of 6% after falling to 5% in September. The utilization rate of sales incentives in October was 62%, a slight increase from 61% in September.
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All three HMI indexes rose in October. The gauge for current sales rose 2 points to 47, the gauge for expected sales over the next six months rose 4 points to 57, and the gauge for prospective buyer traffic rose 2 points to 29. Ta.Looking at the three-month moving average of HMI scores by region, the Northeast rose 2 points to 51, the Midwest rose 2 points to 41, the South remained unchanged at 41, and the West rose 3 points to 41. Ta.
Emphasis added
Click on the graph to see a larger image.
This graph shows the NAHB index since January 1985.
This was slightly above consensus expectations.
