by calculated risk October 17, 2024 12:57:00 PM
In today’s ‘Calculated Risk Real Estate’ newsletter: September local housing market 3rd edition
A brief excerpt:
Note: Active listings, new listings, and closed sales tables all include comparisons to September 2019 for each regional market (some 2019 data is not available).
This is the third survey of several local markets reported earlier in September. I track over 40 local housing markets in the United States. Some of the 40 markets are state markets and others are metropolitan areas. We will update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
September sales were dominated by contracts signed in July and August, when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
…Sales in these markets decreased by 6.0% year-on-year in September. Last month in August, these same markets fell a not seasonally adjusted (NSA) 5.2% year over year.
Important: The number of business days in September 2024 (20) was the same as in September 2023 (20). Therefore, the year-on-year change in headline SA data will be similar to NSA data. Last month, there was one fewer business day in August 2024 than in August 2023 (22 days vs. 23 days), so the seasonally adjusted sales decline was smaller than NSA sales.
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NAR last year reported sales for September 2023 at SAAR 3.98 million. The data suggests that existing home sales reports will decline year-over-year in September. The cycle low was in October 2023 at SAAR 3.85 million. A new cycle low is possible.
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More local markets coming!
There’s a lot more to this article.
