by calculated risk October 25, 2024 01:27:00 PM
from philadelphia fed bank:
The Philadelphia Fed has released the 50-state coincident index for September 2024. Over the past three months, the index increased in 34 states, decreased in 10 states, and remained stable in six states, resulting in a three-month spread index of 48. Additionally, over the past month, the index increased in 36 states, decreased in 7 states, and stabilized in 7 states, resulting in a one-month spread index of 58. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed also created a similar matched index for the United States and the United States. All of the United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index has risen 0.7% over the past three months, and rose 0.3% in September.
Emphasis added
Note: These are concordance indices constructed from state employment data. Philadelphia Fed Description:
The concordance index combines four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions into one statistic. The four state-level variables in each matched index are nonfarm payrolls, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, unemployment rate, and wages and salaries subtracted by the Consumer Price Index (U.S. city average). It’s an expense. The trend of each state’s index is set to the trend of gross domestic product (GDP), so the long-term growth of the state’s index matches the long-term growth of GDP.
Click on the map to see a larger image.
This is a map of three-month changes in the Philadelphia Fed’s state match index. this the map was red During the worst of the pandemic, and even during the worst of the Great Recession.
The map is mostly positive or unchanged on a three-month basis.
Source: Philadelphia Fed.
And here’s a graph of the number of states with increased activity in one month, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
In September, 39 states saw an increase in activity, including some small increases.
