by calculated risk October 29, 2024 05:30:00 PM
census bureau released Today we are releasing the 2024 Q3 Housing Vacancy and Home Ownership Report.
The results of this study were heavily skewed by the 2020 pandemic.
This report is frequently cited by analysts and the media to track household composition, home ownership rates, and homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious doubts about the accuracy of this study.
While this study may indicate trends, it does not rely on absolute numbers. Analysts should probably not use the HVS or rely on homeownership rates to estimate excess vacancy supply or household formation other than as a guide to trends.
The national rental housing vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2024 was 6.9% 1.0% for owner-occupied housing. The rental vacancy rate was not statistically different from the vacancy rate in Q3 2023 (6.6 percent), nor was it statistically different from the vacancy rate in Q2 2024 (6.6 percent).
The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.0% was higher than the vacancy rate in Q3 2023 (0.8%) and was not statistically different from the vacancy rate in Q2 2024 (0.9%) .
of Home ownership rate is 65.6% The percentage was statistically unchanged from the third quarter of 2023 (66.0 percent) and virtually the same as the percentage in the second quarter of 2024 (65.6 percent).
Emphasis added
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The HVS homeownership rate for the third quarter was 65.6%, unchanged from 65.6% in the second quarter.
The results for the second and third quarters of 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.
HVS homeowner vacancy rate increased from 0.9% in the second quarter to 1.0% in the third quarter.
Again, this probably indicates a general trend, but does not depend on absolute numbers.
Homeowner vacancy rates have fallen sharply during the pandemic, but this includes homes that are vacant and for sale (i.e. This reflects low but increasing levels of existing housing inventory.).
The rental vacancy rate rose from 6.6% in the second quarter to 6.9% in the third quarter. This is up from a low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022.
Although the quarterly HVS is the most timely survey of households, there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.
