by Calculated Risk June 28, 2024 8:57 AM
Below are graphs of the year-over-year changes for dwellings from this morning’s CPI report and for housing from the PCE report, both through May 2024.
CPI shelter rose 5.4% year-over-year in May, down from 5.5% in April and also down from the March 2023 cycle peak of 8.2%.
Asking rents are almost flat compared to the previous year, so these measures It will continue to decline gradually over the next year..
The second chart shows PCE prices, core PCE prices, and core home prices (annualized) over the past three months.
The key indicator is slightly above the Fed’s target on a three-month basis.Note: There appears to be some seasonality remaining that distorts PCE prices in the first quarter, particularly in January.
PCE Price Index: 2.4% (3-month annualized rate)
Core PCE Price: 2.7%
Core minus residential: 2.2%
