by Calculated Risk July 29, 2024 9:58 AM
Today’s Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final regional housing market outlook for June and July sales outlook
Short excerpt:
In June, sales in these markets were down 13.1% year over year. Last month, in May, sales in these same markets were down 0.1% year over year on a seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis.
…This was a year-over-year decrease for NSA in these markets. However, there were two fewer business days in June 2024 compared to June 2023 (19 vs. 21), so seasonally adjusted sales were much higher than the NSA data would suggest. Note: NAR reports NSA sales In June, it was down 13.4% compared to a year ago, roughly in line with this local data.
July home sales were driven primarily by contracts signed in May and June, and mortgage rates declined slightly to average 6.92% in June from 7.06% in May. My initial forecast is that on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, July existing home sales will be at or above June levels.
Announcement for next month (July Sale): July 2024 will have two more business days compared to July 2023 (22 vs. 20), so seasonally adjusted sales will be much lower than the NSA data indicates.
There’s a lot more in the article.
