by Calculated Risk July 30, 2024 1:23 PM
Census Bureau release Today we are releasing our second quarter 2024 housing vacancy and homeownership reports.
The survey’s results were heavily skewed by the 2020 pandemic.
The report is frequently cited by analysts and media for tracking household formation, homeownership rates, and vacancy rates for homeowners and renters. But there are serious questions about the accuracy of the survey.
While the survey may indicate trends, we would not rely on absolute numbers, and analysts should not use the HVS to estimate vacant housing oversupply or household formation, or rely on homeownership rates, except as a guide to trends.
The national vacancy rate for rental housing was 6.6% and for owner-occupied housing was 0.9% in the second quarter of 2024. The vacancy rate for rental housing was higher than in the second quarter of 2023 (6.3%) and roughly the same as in the first quarter of 2024 (6.6%).
The homeowner vacancy rate was 0.9%, higher than 0.7% in the second quarter of 2023 and 0.8% in the first quarter of 2024.
The homeownership rate of 65.6% was not statistically different from the rate in Q2 2023 (65.9%) and was virtually the same as the rate in Q1 2024 (65.6%).
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The HVS homeownership rate remained unchanged at 65.6% in the second quarter from 65.6% in the first quarter.
Results for the second and third quarters of 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be disregarded.
HVS homeowner vacancy rates increased from 0.8% in the first quarter to 0.9% in the second quarter.
Again, this probably indicates a general trend, but it is best not to rely on absolute numbers.
Homeowner vacancy rates have fallen sharply during the pandemic and include vacant homes and homes for sale (i.e., this reflects low existing housing inventory).
The second quarter rental vacancy rate was 6.6%, unchanged from 6.6% in the first quarter, which is up from the 2021 and 2022 low of 5.6%.
Conducted quarterly, the HVS is the most timely survey of households, but there are many questions about the survey’s accuracy.
