Get ready, because the 2024 Christmas shopping season will be short and competitive, with mobile devices, elections, email and social commerce taking center stage.
Below are five holiday shopping predictions, input from the AI, and a report card of my predictions from last year.
54% on mobile
According to Adobe, just over half of all U.S. online purchases will be made on a mobile device between November 1 and December 25, 2023, amounting to approximately $113.5 billion. This year, 54% of holiday e-commerce sales will come from mobile.
There are three factors driving growth: age, market and postpaid options.
First, there’s the age factor: According to Emarketer, Gen Z shoppers (ages 18-25) are more likely to purchase from a mobile device, with roughly 15% of Gen Z consumers making a purchase directly from a social media site. And because social commerce is mobile-friendly, its impact is multiplied.
Second, Amazon and other large marketplaces accounted for more than half of all sales last holiday season, and these marketplaces offer native mobile apps that make it easy to shop from your smartphone.
Third, BNPL It is becoming more and more popular Great for Christmas shopping. They are often associated with larger retailers and marketplaces, which can lead to a better mobile shopping experience.
E-commerce increased by 5%
Early forecasts from Emarketer, an e-commerce platform maker, and others had predicted that the 2024 Christmas shopping season would grow to $271 billion, up 23% from 2023’s $222.1 billion.
That’s overly optimistic, given the fierce US election, inflation and other economic issues. I’m predicting a 5% increase this year.
25% increase in email volume
2024 will see continued growth in email marketing.
For example, Sinch Mailgun, a provider of email infrastructure services, reported last year that email volume for the weekend between Black Friday and Cyber Monday increased 16% year-over-year. For the month of November as a whole, volume increased 22% year-over-year.
The 2024 Christmas shopping season is relatively short at 29 days, Digital Advertising Competition is fierce and costs are high. Marketers Using email To increase sales.
40% of Gen Z uses social media
A recent survey of Gen Z shoppers found that roughly 4 in 10 will use some form of social commerce during the 2024 Christmas shopping season.
TikTok ShopTikTok, which launched in September 2023, generated $11.9 billion in gross merchandise volume in 2023. TikTok does not usually release performance results, but it is reasonable to assume growth. Add in the growth of other platforms, Social Commerce 2024 could be significant.
BNPL 9% of retail sales
For the second year in a row, BNPL is expected to account for 9% of all U.S. online holiday sales.
I overestimated BNPL growth last year, putting it at 7.4%, but a recent Experian survey found that roughly 25% of US consumers plan to use BNPL this year, so I project growth to be 9% in 2024.
Additionally, the mix of brick-and-mortar and e-commerce sales is set to plateau. In 2023, e-commerce will account for 34% of U.S. holiday sales, up one percentage point from the previous year. Brick-and-mortar and online retailers will find more ways to drive in-store shopping. One way to do this is by promoting BNPL offers in-store.
AI Prediction
After creating a list of five 2024 holiday predictions, we had three generative artificial intelligence tools do the same, using the following prompt:
“Based on historical data and recent forecasts, we challenge retail and e-commerce professionals to make five bold predictions for the 2024 holiday shopping season.”
ChatGPT 4.o (by Open AI)
ChatGPT 4 by OpenAI
- Social commerce is expected to account for about 20% of all online transactions this holiday season.
- Sustainability It will be a key factor for consumers during the 2024 holiday season: Retailers that offer carbon-neutral shipping, recyclable packaging and sustainably sourced products are expected to see a 25% increase in sales.
- Omnichannel fulfillment will become mainstream and same-day delivery will become the norm.
- Mobile shopping will surpass desktop and in-store experiences, with more than 70% of e-commerce transactions this holiday season taking place on smartphones.
Grok-2 Beta (by X)
Grok-2 Beta (Made by X)
- Mobile commerce goes mainstream: More than 60% of all e-commerce transactions during the holiday season will be conducted on a mobile device due to enhanced mobile payment solutions and an increase in mobile-first consumer behavior.
- Social commerce grows: Retailers that integrate seamless in-app purchasing experiences can see up to 30% increase in sales directly through social media.
- Although the holiday season will be structurally shorter, the intensity of shopping activity will increase earlier and more suddenly, with retailers placing an emphasis on pre-Black Friday sales and beginning holiday promotions as early as late October.
- AI-powered personalization and predictive shopping will blossom. Retailers will use AI not just to suggest products but to predict what consumers want before they explicitly search for them, potentially improving conversion rates by offering personalized “surprise and delight” deals. This could lead to AI influencing more than 25% of online purchases this holiday season.
- As awareness of environmental issues grows, sustainability will become an important factor in purchasing decisions.
Gemini (Courtesy of Google)
Google’s Gemini
- Mobile devices will account for more than 60% of all online shopping traffic and nearly 50% of all online sales during the holiday season.
- AI-powered personalization will become mainstream, with retailers using customer data and predictive analytics to create targeted product recommendations, offers, and experiences.
- Social media platforms will play a major role in the holiday shopping arena.
- Sustainability drives purchasing decisions: Consumer awareness of environmental and social issues has reached new heights, and shoppers are increasingly choosing brands and products that align with their values.
- Supply chain disruptions Despite efforts to mitigate disruptions, challenges such as port congestion, labor shortages and material shortages continue, affecting product availability and pricing.
Last year’s predictions
Since 2013, I’ve been predicting e-commerce trends and sales for the upcoming holiday season. Predictions for 2023 went.
Holiday spending will increase by less than 5% — Correct. The National Retail Federation projects total holiday sales growth of 3.8% in 2023. Emarketer predicted 2023 holiday growth of 3.9%, but other companies predicted a higher growth rate of 4.9%, below their 5% forecast. By comparison, U.S. holiday spending in 2022 increased 8.1% year over year.
“Buy now, pay later” services account for 9% of retail sales — False. on the other hand, number According to Adobe Analytics, BNPL transactions grew 14% last year, but totaled just $16.6 billion, or 7.4% of sales.
Discounts increase sales — Correct. This prediction is easy, with some estimates suggesting that 60% of Christmas orders in 2023 will include at least one sale item. Emarketer explains: “Deep discounts drove consumer spending across the Cyber Five in 2023.”
Shoppers wait for discounts — that’s right. While U.S. Veterans Day (Nov. 11) sales remained roughly flat from 2022 to 2023, Black Friday retail sales increased 7.5% year-over-year, and e-commerce increased about 19%. Shoppers looked forward to Black Friday and Cyber Monday discounts.
How generative AI will impact product discovery — Unknown. This prediction is hard to measure: We found no data on how generative search results influenced holiday purchasing behavior.
