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As always, in my first post I’ll be looking back at the past year and looking at what’s to come.
In 2024, the number and intensity of conflicts within societies and between nations will increase. If this trend continues, the consequences will be severe. Excessive energy is being pumped into the system. At some point, there will be a change of state, a chaotic collapse. In line with this, an uncomfortably large number of experts are portraying nuclear war as a way to resolve conflicts, as if ending the world as we know it is an acceptable price to pay.
While most commentators see domestic and foreign policy issues as separate mental silos, wars are increasingly being brought home in the United States and Europe. Wars distract governments from the threats to civilization that are climate change and the disappearance of the biosphere. This may not be a coincidence, since war is a carbon-intensive activity.
This means increased risks ranging from financial collapse to supply chain disruptions that could result in critical medicines being unavailable or employers being unable to obtain raw materials, putting jobs at risk.
This humble blog, with the generous help of commentators, continues to strive to get an early and accurate picture of early developments, but that goal is made much harder by the fact that many at the top have gone into “truth is the first casualty of war” mode.
But from the perspective of the broader community these leaders were meant to serve, the right understanding should have led to a course correction. For example, U.S. and NATO officials had bought the hype that Russia was weak and (always) short on missiles, which led the West to spend huge amounts of money and deplete its arms stockpiles to critical levels. But Russia is now advancing increasingly rapidly across Ukraine, and faces the critical question of how much of it it will occupy by the end of the day.
Similarly, as Jeffrey Sachs and many others have pointed out, China is an economic competitor, not an enemy. But the U.S. is determined to make China into an enemy, even though no sane military analyst believes the U.S. could win in a violent conflict. But instead of finding a way out in the U.S. or a potentially explosive Middle East, America’s supposed leaders are risking a world war.
These are not the only examples of the strange disconnect between the public messaging and the situation on the ground: Witness the indecision and collective neglect of COVID-19 (as well as measles, avian flu, and now the nasty respiratory syncytial virus) even as the disease burden has pushed health systems to near collapse and increased disabilities, especially cognitive impairment; or the inaction we have seen as income and wealth inequalities continue to grow, and communities and social cohesion erode at a time when these assets are increasingly needed.
Instead, U.S. and European governments have relied on propaganda and supportive media mouthpieces to channel public fear and agitation into hatred of domestic political opponents (and Putin), draining energy that could be used for reform and collective action.
So instead of addressing the underlying problems or applying meaningful large-scale band-aids, the authorities have increasingly reverted to authoritarianism, from stationing snipers at universities to intimidate anti-Israel genocide protesters to harassing and intimidating critics ranging from Tulsi Gabbard, Richard Medhurst, Sarah Wilkinson and Scott Ritter to the relatively docile Judge Napolitano. And that’s not even including Israel’s assassination of journalists in Gaza, or the US refusal to intervene when Gonzalo Lira was indicted, jailed and soon after died in Ukraine.
Even this humble site was targeted by Google’s scheme to prevent them from monetizing posts based on their inexcusably inaccurate algorithmic blackmarks. We fought back against this attack and ultimately won, knowing that other sites in similar situations have been shut down. We hope that our publicity of this misconduct, and furthermore that Matt Taibbi and Rajiv Sethi have taken up our cause, will embarrass Google and at least double-check before threatening independent sites.
The failure of Western leadership, purportedly, is so widespread and so severe that most people have become numb to it. In our work on the Greek bailout crisis, we first identified the underlying problem in 2015: a decline in operational capacity. But one need not struggle to find it everywhere, from the geopolitical genius that brought Russia and China together and accelerated the rise of BRICS, to the slow collapse of Boeing and Intel, to Crowdstrike, to the Fed’s failure to foresee that high interest rates would hit banks’ commercial real estate portfolios alone, to the failure of Europeans to understand how dependent their prosperity was on cheap Russian energy.
This year has seen more and more leaders succumb to the harsh reality. For example, highly defensive European leaders have been shocked to see their populations voting for populist parties in protest against declining living standards and even (surprisingly) the war in Ukraine. Their response has been to crack down on opposition through the press and social media platforms, rather than making the hard work of delivering tangible material benefits to their voters.
It’s a sobering overview. I would prefer we were wrong, but I see no hope for relief. And that’s before we consider the real possibility of power transfer in the United States, and I don’t mean an orderly power transfer.
And things will not be rosy if the US avoids serious upheaval. Even if Trump supporters’ predictions prove correct and Trump wins and actually calms the Ukraine conflict, it will be mainly because the US will accelerate tensions with China. The Middle East will remain a flashpoint. There is no discussion of the possibility of financial instability, but increased hostilities could easily be the trigger.
So, what role does this little blog play in this big and really scary world?
We believe that in difficult times, sober reality is the best survival strategy, and having a better grasp on the situation can help you determine which path is most prudent.
Many of you are here not just out of a thirst for information but out of a thirst for understanding, to get a better grasp on what is really going on in different fields.
We provided early warning about the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the inability of government officials to face its severity. Many readers told us that our coverage helped them exit risky investments early. Then, during the foreclosure crisis, our relentless, in-depth coverage helped some people save their homes. More recently, we provided detailed and ahead-of-the-time analyses of Brexit, private equity fraud (both for investors and company shareholders), the impact of ultra-low interest rates and how hard it is to get out of them, Russia’s eventual victory in Ukraine (not that hard to call, since Obama came to the same conclusion), and Israel’s true intention to ethnically cleanse, or failing that, commit genocide, in Gaza and the West Bank.
We’ve regularly provided more mundane advice, from everyday gardening tips to supporting libraries by sharing books and tools, to how to avoid or survive financial and insurance scams, as well as how to make communities more resilient. And more recently, readers have repeatedly told us how invaluable and life-saving our Covid coverage, and especially Lambert’s, has been.
As such a lean site, we’re proud of our long-standing track record of getting the word out quickly and accurately. But we don’t do this alone; this community is essential. Naked Capitalism’s truly global commentators range from experience to skill set, thoroughly sharing knowledge and ideas on everything from the merits of voting systems to running the power grid, to new drugs, home repairs, and language learning tips.
Your input and financial support allows us to continue adding new articles. This year, four new contributors have joined us in a very important gesture of faith: Rob Urey, George Georgiou, Kevin Kirk, and Vladislav Sotirović. If you value this informational hard work, Please go directly to the tip jar and donate generously.
Naked Capitalism has long been in the shoes of few, providing both hot takes and near-think-tank-level analysis. Here are a few of the many recent examples:
Conor Gallagher talks about Realtor.com’s rent fixing algorithm, examines the Sahara-Wagenknecht Party’s challenge, and talks about how the US lost in the Black Sea
Nick Corbishley talks Mexico’s victory over Monsanto corn, Mastercard’s test of biometric retail payments, and the push back against the war on cash
KLG on Ultra-Processed Foods, the War on Workers, and Peer Review
Lambert talks about rampant Covid (and now measles) irresponsibility, like mask bans, and relentless election coverage, like Kamala’s coronation and Kennedy Jr.’s curveball.
Michael Hudson was the first to bring us his articles; Thomas Neuburger provides regular updates on climate change and Democratic conspiracies; contributor Satyajit Das recently added well-received culture articles to his Economic Observations; Albert ponders themes of identity and sociology; I sift the signal from the noise of the Ukraine and Gaza wars, regularly report on government and corporate responses to the baby bubble burst, and provide media critiques for the Business Bulletin.
I want to do more. I want to do better. Imagine the trouble you could cause if you had a lot of money.
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If you can’t donate financially, you can still help. Now more than ever, we need your help to promote Naked Capitalism and reach a wider audience. You can help by sending our articles, links, and Water Coolers to friends, family, and colleagues who might be interested, linking to our posts on Facebook, Twitter, and other social media, promoting the site, posting comments, and sending us cute animal photos.
In the kickoff articleNow, let me explain how the donations will be used and let you know when we reach each goal. Our first goal is $25,000 to put towards digital infrastructure basics. It might not be the most sexy thing, but it’s our plumbing. When your plumbing isn’t working, it gets lonely. And a big round of applause for our tech guru, Dave!
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Again, we appreciate you supporting our work in ways big and small. With your help, we’ve built a community that we hope will continue to grow and be even better in the coming year.
