by Calculated Risk September 6, 2024, 9:12 AM
The August employment report showed fewer payrolls than expected, with the number of employed people revised down to a combined decrease of 82,000 for June and July. The labor force participation rate and employed population ratio remained unchanged, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%.
Construction employment increased by 34,000, reaching 665,000 above pre-pandemic levels.
Manufacturing employment fell by 24,000 and is now 147,000 above pre-pandemic levels.
Because overall participation rates are affected by both cyclical (recessions) and demographic factors (ageing population, young people staying in school), the employment-population ratio for the key working age group, 25-54 years old, is:
Participation among those aged 25 to 54 fell from 84.0% in July to 83.9% in August.
The proportion of the employed population aged 25 to 54 remained unchanged from the previous month’s 80.9% at 80.9%.
Average hourly wage
This graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “average hourly wage” for all private sector employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has been declining since peaking at 5.9% y/y in March 2022, to 3.8% y/y in August.
From BLS Report:
“The number of people working part-time for economic reasons remained little changed at 4.8 million in August. The figure is up from 4.2 million a year ago. These people wanted full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours were cut or they could not find full-time work.“
The number of people working part-time for economic reasons rose from 4.57 million in July to 4.83 million in August, above pre-pandemic levels.
These workers: Alternative measures Labor force underutilization (U-6) increased to 7.9% from 7.8% the previous month. This is down from the all-time high of 23.0% in April 2020 but up from the all-time low (seasonally adjusted) of 6.5% in December 2022 (the series began in 1994). The measure is above the February 2020 (pre-pandemic) level of 7.0%.
Unemployed for more than 26 weeks
This graph shows the number of workers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, the number of workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and are still looking for work was 1.533 million, roughly unchanged from the previous month’s 1.535 million.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Continuous employment
The employment report shows 44 consecutive months of positive employment growth through August 2024, making the current streak the fifth-longest employment streak in U.S. history (since 1939). This streak is expected to continue even after the annual benchmark revision (which revises employment growth downward).
| Hot Jobs, Top 10 Consecutive Years | ||
|---|---|---|
| End Year | Consecutive Records, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 | 1979 | 45 |
| 5 | 20241 | 44 |
| 6 ties | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 ties | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 ties | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | twenty five |
| 1Current Winning Streak | ||
summary:
The August employment report showed fewer employees than expected, with the number of employed people revised down to a combined decrease of 82,000 for June and July. The labor force participation rate and employed population ratio remained unchanged, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%.
Weaker than expected reports, and The three-month average employment growth slowed to 116 people per month.The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in August from a low of 3.4% at the start of 2023 (although it has declined slightly from July).
