Calculated risk: Year-on-year inflation rates: services, goods, housing

by Calculated Risk September 11, 2024 8:54 AM

Here are some indicators of inflation:

The first chart is where Fed Chairman Powell mentioned that services, excluding residential rent, were up about 8% year over year. That number has declined and is now up 4.3% year over year.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

This chart shows the year-over-year change in prices for services and services minus shelter rent through August 2024.

The second chart shows that commodity prices began to rise year-over-year in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durable goods were down -4.2% y/y as of August 2024, down from -4.1% y/y in July.

Commodities excluding food and energy products were down 1.7% year-on-year in August, unchanged from -1.7% year-on-year in July.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in housing from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July).

Shelters increased 5.2% in August from a year ago.up from 5.0% in July. Housing (PCE) rose 5.3% year-over-year in July, down from 5.3% in June (rounded).

The BLS noted that “the housing index rose 0.5 percent in August, leading the increase in the overall index.”

This is still catching up with personal data.

Core CPI, excluding housing, rose 1.7% year-on-year in August, down from 1.8% in July.