Once again we find ourselves in a situation where information about the conflict between the Resistance and Israel is contaminated by propaganda, important omissions, and even the pre-emption of some observers. Despite yesterday’s Iranian missile attack on Iran, coverage remains sketchy, apparently due in no small part to Israel’s attempts to impose a blackout.
However, a few things seem to be known.
Israel’s air defense has failed again. This is a larger repeat of what happened in April, when Iran agreed to what Israel and its allies considered to be Potemkin retaliation against Israel for attacking the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Israel has an ideal situation: the target is agreed upon in advance, it has the support of the US, UK and France, and Iran is the first to send a low-speed drone with a flight time of 6 hours, and even broadcast a state-run video of the launch. Despite being broadcast on television, Iran successfully hit every target. Accuracy. And while the attack cost Iran something like $90 million, IIRC the cost of Israel’s defense was $1.35 billion and another $1 billion for Israel’s allies.1
Iran launched between 200 and 400 missiles. According to the Navy, only about 12 missiles were shot down.2 There was this tweet in the link, and it’s worth highlighting.
🇮🇱🇮🇷 15 minutes Iranian missile attacks Israel…Supercut pic.twitter.com/OABH2cWfb4
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 1, 2024
The extent of the damage is not clear, but Iran may have been interested in a show of force.. Pathologically, pro-Israel sources see the lack of deaths as evidence that Iran was still showing restraint and trying to avoid casualties. Iran reportedly attacked three air bases in Nevidim, Ternov, and Hatselim, as well as near a building of Mossad Unit 8200. There was also an unverified video on Twitter showing missiles attacking Israeli offshore gas operations and oil tankers, which supply 80% of Israel’s gas.
Iran claimed to have shot down 20 of the 35 Israeli F-35 squadrons stationed at Nevatim. But Simplicius claims this is inaccurate and that Iran gave Israel a warning. This seems to contradict other explanations that the Iranian ballistic missiles appeared so quickly that Israel did not sound an air warning in advance. nevertheless:
In fact, Iran has openly admitted that it gave advance notice to the United States, and by extension Israel, of the attack, which gave Israel advance warning to put all its F-35s in the air. This is standard procedure for high-value assets such as those before a strike, and is regularly practiced by both Ukraine and Russia in the SMO.
This seems to contradict the occasional triumphalist explanation from the Ukrainian and Russian sides that they have removed their expensive fighter jets and that Russia is now systematically searching for and destroying F-16s. appear. We welcome reader sanity checks.
However, Iranian statements after the attack indicate that it intends to retaliate, and overly destroying China in Israel would be inconsistent.
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC): We are attacking military targets with dozens of rockets in the occupied Palestinian territories.
IRGC: In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Syed Hassan Nasrullah and Martyr Nirvorshan, we targeted the heart of the people… pic.twitter.com/IAfgwPGrbJ
— Vanessa Beeley/UK Column (@VanessaBeeley) October 1, 2024
In other words, many of what appear to be near misses or hits on low-value sections of typically high-value facilities may be by design.
Nor should we underestimate the impact that having so many missiles landing unhindered would have on the Israeli people.
America and Israel are in turmoil right now.. Prime Minister Netanyahu and the United States need to respond in order to maintain their masculinity. But Prime Minister Netanyahu may have finally begun to realize that the United States cannot save Israel from Iran in an all-out war, even though the United States and its allies could probably mark up Iran significantly. The man on the right is the head of Mossad.
Currently, Israel can use nuclear weapons against Iran, but Iran has a massive dead-hand counterattack capability that would not only crush Israel, but also burn down Saudi oil fields and turn the Middle East into an ecological disaster zone. It is widely believed that
Politico reported Israel persuaded the White House to go along with the obviously insane idea of attacking Lebanon and forcing it into negotiations. Since Amos Hochstein was involved in this project, it is easy to imagine that, as always, he was working to advance Israel rather than US interests. And Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted the United States to commit more deeply to Israel’s defense, so any way to get the United States on board with escalation was foolish to him.
Let me tell you, even though the Democrats are in danger of retaining the presidency due to even greater turmoil in Israel (is Madam Joy Vibes a credible war leader?) The White House pushed through, overcoming opposition from the Department of Defense, State Department, and intelligence agencies. This should have been enough reason to pause. When did Anthony Blinken start refraining from being Israel’s main man?
The United States and Israel overestimated how much damage they actually inflicted on Hezbollah, even though they killed most of its leaders. It currently has an estimated 150,000 missiles in its possession. How much effort does it take as a leader to assign targets and fire? This is a point made by John Mearsheimer in an interview with The Spectator. Hezbollah was clearly not defeated, because even after Israel killed Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders, Hezbollah still continued to fire on Israel. Operationally, nothing important for Israel has changed.
Norman Finkelstein recently made a similar point. The Israeli claim that Hezbollah must be forced to retreat across the Litani River in order to allow settlers in northern Israel to return home is patently bogus. Hezbollah shelled them from further north in Lebanon. The demand was for Israel to secure particularly territorial concessions from Hezbollah to demonstrate its victory.
Remember Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rant at the United Nations? The main motive for the decisive pager and attack on the leadership was to re-establish the appearance of military superiority, both to defeat Israel in the region and to restore a sense of security to the Israeli people.
“I have a message for the tyrants in Tehran: If you attack us, we will attack you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that extends to the entire Middle East as well.” apply.”
Israeli leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly today. pic.twitter.com/MgTGIEoekZ
— 5Pillars (@5Pillarsuk) September 27, 2024
But the United States and Israel have not only misread Iran’s strategic patience as weakness and perhaps refused to recognize its military power, but also Shiite tenacity, especially in fighting for family, land, and religion. There is a high possibility that you are underestimating it. Alastair Crook recently told how the Shiites were the dominant force in the Middle East around 900 AD, and over time were often subservient to other rulers. Under the caliphate, Shiites were ordered not to go to their mosques, or the penalty for doing so was losing a finger. “According to Crook, they lost all their fingers, then all their toes, then their hands, then their feet, and they kept coming.” He says sacrifice remains a deeply ingrained value. He added that these are values that are foreign to us.
Anglosphere news outlets have made less mention of the Iranian attack than would normally be expected, emphasizing that it was a failure because it did not cause any significant damage. Many commentators have read it as intended to persuade Israel not to fight back, or at best mount a carefully orchestrated response.
Given Israel’s established tendency to engage in disproportionate retaliation, exacerbated by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s insane desire to involve the United States, it seems highly unlikely that Israel will be assessed. Israel is currently deploying the cliché of “response at a time of our choosing”. It may be to appease the United States and to pretend that Israel will do nothing untoward until after the election, when plans change.
Looking briefly at Lebanon, the idea of a limited invasion was clearly contradictory and another obvious ploy to trap the United States. But strangely, at least so far, Israel still appears to have not broken out of the surveillance block, despite all the noise about launching a ground offensive. Today’s Arab News article:
Hezbollah said Israeli forces had not crossed into Lebanon. “All Zionist claims that (Israeli) occupation forces have entered Lebanon are false claims,” a Hezbollah spokesperson said in a statement on Tuesday.
They added that “no direct ground clashes have yet occurred between (Hezbollah) resistance fighters and (Israeli) occupation forces.”
UN peacekeepers in Lebanon also said on Tuesday that there was “no ground invasion” in the country’s south. UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti told AFP news agency: “At the moment there is no ground invasion.”
But Al Jazeera’s top headline from a few hours ago, which I wanted to take a screenshot of, indicated that Israel had not crossed the border, or had not made much progress. That has changed, But that’s all the details:
Fighting between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli forces has intensified in southern Lebanon, with the Israeli army saying at least eight soldiers have been killed in the fighting.
The Jerusalem Post reported in a similar article: The IDF announced that seven IDF soldiers were killed by Hezbollah during ground operations in Lebanon. It states they were killed in three separate incidents on Wednesday. Therefore, it seems unlikely that this ground operation will get off to a smooth start.
There is no information on Twitter about the situation at the border. Updates are welcome.
_____
1 Scott Ritter explained to Judge Napolitano that this time Iran used only ballistic missiles. Iron Dome is not designed to protect you from them. It is used for slow-moving Hamas and Hezbollah rockets. This defense system is installed on some U.S. Navy ships and ground-launched vehicles, such as the Patriot. However, the latter is not in much supply.
2 claim at Jerusalem Post “…The Pentagon announced that two U.S. Navy destroyers fired approximately 12 interceptor missiles at Iranian missiles aimed at Israel.”
