poison noun
Financial tactics or provisions that companies use to make unwanted acquisitions prohibitively expensive or to make unwanted acquisitions-Merriam-Webster
President Putin must really confess that he overlooked an important part of the proposed peace terms announced on June 14th, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also explained Putin’s position on sanctions in an exclusive interview with Newsweek. I’ve said it repeatedly. Indeed, Putin included it almost as an afterthought.
First, let’s look at President Lavrov’s summary. That’s because it’s more concise than Putin’s formulation (which he said in two places in his speech, so it wasn’t a neat, self-contained list). From Newsweek:
On June 14, President Vladimir Putin listed the preconditions for reconciliation: Complete withdrawal of the AFU from the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic), LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic), Zaporizhye Oblast and Kherson Oblast. Recognition of territorial reality enshrined in the Russian Constitution. Ukraine’s neutral, non-blocking and non-nuclear status. Its demilitarization and denazification. Ensure the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens. and lift all sanctions against Russia.
In addition to President Putin addressing all these issues in his June 14 speech, including recognizing the four oblasts and Crimea as part of Russia, major media outlets also made important points (e.g. Anadolu Agency article).
I will omit the fact that shortly after the Istanbul talks broke down, President Putin warned that the longer the war dragged on, the harder it would be to negotiate with Russia. The implication is that Russia will now demand even tougher conditions, since Putin’s last offer was made in June and Russia has made significant progress on the ground in October. . This is supported by Russia’s position that it will not negotiate with Ukraine at all as long as it has military forces there. And many commentators say that after the Kursk invasion, public opinion in Russia hardened even further against Ukraine, with more citizens wanting Russia to take complete control of Ukraine and decide the terms of it. .
Western commentators are now focused on ensuring that negotiations continue in areas where there is no overlap, namely Ukraine’s neutrality and renunciation of NATO membership. This was tentatively agreed in Istanbul in March-April 2022, as the US and NATO granted Ukraine a sham of autonomy. That’s not so true anymore. NATO and other Western officials now regularly assert that Russia does not have the authority to decide which countries join or not join NATO. Of course, this is possible if Ukraine is under separate control (including if most of the Banderites are dead or have fled the country), but the US and NATO will not provide security guarantees. Some Western experts and officials are working on new responses, such as insisting that Ukraine (temporarily!) cede Russian-occupied territory to NATO members. Interestingly, the Zelenskiy and Azov types are incandescent.
One of Putin’s proposals that I found particularly cheeky, but which received relatively little attention in the Western press, was the condition that Ukraine withdraw from all four disputed regions; exceeds the area occupied by Russia and exceeds the area recognized as Russian territory. For those who haven’t been paying attention, the Banderi faction is threatening Zelenskiy if he gives up any part of Ukraine.
From the Kremlin translation Meeting with Ministry of Foreign Affairs executives:
Indeed, the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine must be fully protected. New territorial realities should be recognized, including the status of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk, Lugansk People’s Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions as part of the Russian Federation. These basic principles will need to be formalized through fundamental international agreements in the future. Naturally, this also entails the lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia.
It can be seen that President Putin is moving from the terms of an agreement that would be recognized by Ukraine alone to one that would clearly be recognized by other countries in the future. Even if Ukraine were to agree in the future to recognize the four oblasts and Crimea as part of Russia, it seems nearly impossible for the US and EU to do so. But since most BRICS countries would probably do so, it would give it considerable legitimacy.
It is strange, therefore, to see President Putin bringing up the idea of lifting all Western sanctions almost as an afterthought, even though he clearly knows what he is doing. These were formally imposed on a state-by-state basis. The US, UK, EU, Australia, Japan and South Korea have all introduced sanctions packages. This includes the seizure of Russian central bank assets by the EU, US and UK, with the EU holding most of the frozen currency.
Let’s do some thought experiments. The EU has been trying hard to make various deals in Ukraine “counter-Trump.” If Trump becomes president and intends to meet more than half of Russia and ease some sanctions, there is no doubt that the EU will do everything in its power to undermine Trump, especially in the more liberal regions. Sanctions. Let’s also remember that Ursula von der Leyen is as hysterically anti-Russian as the Baltics, and that the committee is topped by female superhawks. EU experts, please speak up. I believe that amending or ending sanctions would require a unanimous vote of the EU, not just a qualified majority, which is impossible.
Let me tell you, I expect this relentless rejection to continue, even if it becomes even more self-defeating than it is now. What would happen if the situation in the Middle East deteriorated so badly that oil prices exceeded $120 per barrel and remained there? China would certainly be hurt, but so would the EU, which is in recession. However, the chances of Germany lifting Russian oil sanctions or accepting gas from one of the four original Nord Stream 2 pipelines still in operation seem slim to none. It seems.
Considering all this, we must consider that Putin clearly understood that potential interlocutors in the West would be biased and reject not only some of his agreements, but all of them. It won’t. So why would he make an offer that his opponent would reject? First, Putin (as we and others have emphasized) has convinced economic partners in the Global South that he is not a difficult party. I think it is important to make clear that Russia is not an obstacle to ending the war. Most of these countries are still instinctively uncomfortable with Russia invading and occupying their neighbors, even though they intellectually understand why.
In other words, even if it is objectively reasonable, or at least an acceptable starting position for negotiations, setting conditions that are likely to be rejected by the other side is It looks more like an exercise in keeping records on paper. . Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized this idea in Newsweek magazine, saying: “At the moment, as far as we can see, restoring peace is not part of the enemy’s plans.”
One could therefore argue that Putin had concluded before June 14 that the only way to resolve the conflict was victory on the battlefield. His stipulation was a way to make it official without saying so.
But second, this may be Putin’s own early defense of Trump. Remember, he gave this speech before Biden’s second-term killing debate with President Trump. After that, Trump appeared to have a good chance against Biden, especially since the lack of enthusiasm for Biden has hampered Democratic fundraising. And President Trump is telling anyone who will listen that he can secure peace in Ukraine within 24 hours.
So was this outline of the terms a bit of a defense of Russian President Trump? Recall that President Putin found it troublesome to deal with President Macron’s various peace plans. So he may be hoping to short-circuit an equally pointless meeting with Trump by pointing out his position and playing up his broken record.
