As the US/Israel continues its rampage across the Middle East, we are increasingly given a glimpse into the dark side of the neoconservative mind. It also includes delusions such as “Complete victory” and daydream Regarding the Israeli assassination of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Recently featured one such vision Naked Capitalism by Simon Watkins of neocon-linked Oilprice. In it, he cited the option for Israel to attack Iran from Azerbaijan, which would open a new front of war, destroy energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the Caspian Sea, damage the global economy, and potentially It will cause 100,000 deaths. People are just the usual neocon pipe dreams, if not more.
Although Watkins’ version is unlikely (see comments on his work) here), there is a pathway for Caucasians to become involved in US/Israeli genocide in the Middle East. Neocon fever dreams are unfortunately a contributing factor, but there’s a lot else going on, and I’d like to take a more sober look at it here.
The Caucasus is at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, making it one of the most contested centers for the critical issues of energy transfer and trade logistics. All the major players in the Middle East conflict, as well as other countries, are deeply involved in the geopolitical maneuvering here.
Much of the intrigue in the Caucasus revolves around the so-called Zangezur Corridor, a 42km stretch of southern Armenia wedged between Azerbaijan and its enclave of Nakhchivan and bordering Iran to the south.
This small, coveted territory plays a huge role in large-scale trade and energy projects, due to the fact that whoever controls it increases their influence in the region. This is of great interest to all major powers in the broader Middle East conflict, including Iran, Russia, Turkiye, Israel, and the United States.
The latter happens to have its fate largely determined by its recent infiltration of the Armenian government, which has become a US outpost, making the Zangezur corridor a major bargaining chip for Washington.
of Nine-point ceasefire agreement The agreement, signed under Russian mediation that ended the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, requires Armenia to ensure the security of transport links between the western region of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan region, and to protect its citizens, vehicles, It contained a clause stating that it was responsible for facilitating the unimpeded movement of cargo in both directions. . Azerbaijan and Turkiye adhered to this point, asserting their right to establish a transportation network through southern Armenia.
Baku wants the movement of people and cargo between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan to take place without inspections or customs, and expects Yerevan to agree to deploy Russian border guards along the corridor. . The Russian government agrees to deploy border guards (it wants Russia to carry out security checks), even if it disagrees on customs issues.
Turkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia may not see eye to eye on Zangezur, but a concerted effort has been made to find some kind of agreement that works for all sides. Baku I wanted it A broader “3+3” framework involving Russia, Iran, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Russia led the process until Armenia turned to the US and EU to replace Moscow last year, a decision that quickly led to Armenia losing the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and the loss of more than 100,000 Armenians. This resulted in him fleeing.
Bringing the United States into the equation makes a peaceful agreement even more likely, but also increases the likelihood of destabilization spilling over from the Middle East.
The starting point for a conflict in the South Caucasus involving external actors will be new fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While the latter receives significant military support from Israel and Turkiye, Armenia is now a Western proxy state that receives support primarily from France, the United States, and India.
Zealous support for neo-Nazis, jihadists, and genocide is looking increasingly like a bankrupt strategy while Washington unleashes madness, both in the State Department and its proxy states—which Washington and Israel do not It would be surprising if that were the case. Do not try to push further recklessly in the Caucasus.
Will the other actors, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia, be able to find a mutually acceptable way forward rather than conflict?
The outlook is not very good at the moment. Peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia (with significant cooperation from the US side), aimed at resolving long-standing border issues similar to the Zangezur issue, are currently at a deadlock. The biggest concern is the Zangezur issue.
On October 14, Azerbaijan’s defense minister instructed the country’s military to remain on high alert and “be prepared to take precautionary measures against any provocations of reconstructionist forces on the conditional borders.”
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and President Erdoğan have frequently spoken about seizing the Zangezur Corridor by force if necessary, and have confirmed their efforts to do so if a new conflict breaks out between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Although the possibility is low, it is quite possible.
The problem is that Iran is increasingly concerned about the prospects for the corridor, as its influence is under attack across the Middle East and it is drawing red lines it cannot cross as it becomes isolated on this issue. is.
It is easy to imagine many scenarios in which conflict spreads from the Middle East to the Caucasus, especially given the current machinations of the all-or-nothing approach by the United States and Israel. Rather than speculate about these hypotheses, here is a brief summary of the positions of all players involved in the Zangezur Corridor and how their positions relate to the current US/Israeli insurgency in the Middle East. I would like to.
Iran
The Iranian government has reportedly made it clear to the US that it will respond similarly in the region if Israel/US attacks its energy infrastructure, including in the Middle East alone. It also includes the South Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan.
This is natural for Azerbaijan. supplies 40 percent of Israel’s energy needs. Israel and Azerbaijan’s strong arms and energy ties continue to be a major concern for Iran, with media reporting that Israel’s secret military bases in Azerbaijan and sabotage against Iran are frequently directed by Israel from Azerbaijan. Reporting beliefs.
Regarding the Zangezur Corridor issue, Tehran said it was crossing a red line that should not be crossed.
Regional peace, security and stability are not just priorities, they are pillars of national security.
Any threat from the north, south, east, or west to the territorial integrity or redrawing of borders of neighboring countries is completely unacceptable and is a red line that Iran must not cross.
— Sayed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) September 5, 2024
The construction of the Zangezur Corridor will be negative for Tehran in every conceivable way. Iran would be excluded as a route to bypass Armenia. Click here for details al monitor:
Iran is 15% commission From Azerbaijan’s gas supply to Nakhchivan. It also serves as Türkiye’s export route to Central Asia. The route is used by an average of about 12,000 Turkish trucks each month, and Iran charges tolls of up to $800 for the 1,800 kilometers (1,120 miles) journey to the Turkmenistan border.
But beyond money, Iran does not want to lose influence over Azerbaijan, which relies on transportation through Iran to connect the enclave. And Tehran is particularly concerned about NATO. Turan Corridor This envisions Western powers linking virtual client states throughout Central Asia. from Dr. Valli KareziExpert in Central Asian and Caucasian studies based in Tehran:
Iran views the creation of the Zangezur Corridor as an issue beyond access to the Nakhchivan enclave of the Republic of Azerbaijan, believing that the corridor will provide NATO member Turkiye with direct military access to the Caucasus and the western Caspian Sea. . In fact, a significant number of Iranian elites and experts believe that the expansion of Turkiye’s presence in the South Caucasus, especially through the Zangezur Corridor, will strengthen Pan-Turkism in the region, which poses a direct threat to the Azerbaijan region in the northwest. I believe. Iran.
Iran opened a new consulate in southern Armenia in 2022 and is conducting more frequent military exercises on its border with Azerbaijan and in the Caspian Sea. Iranian intervention would make sense if Azerbaijan and Turkiye tried to seize Armenian land by force, but what would Iran do if Armenia agreed to the Zangezur Corridor? Taking action in that case would be the moment when Iran’s position becomes severely full and puts it at odds with other countries in the region, including Russia.
in Iran in September summoned The Russian ambassador spoke about Moscow’s support for Zangezur. There is report Other issues between Iran and Russia are mentioned, but it’s unclear how much meat there is on the bones. In any case, recent news from the South Caucasus gives Tehran further reason for concern.
October 8, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russian border guards have announced that they will withdraw from checkpoints in Armenia and Iran by January 1st. Since 1992, Russian forces have been in charge of Armenia’s borders with Turkiye and Iran.
Coupled with Armenia’s embrace of NATO and Azerbaijan’s status as a Mossad outpost, it is no surprise that Tehran sees this development as part of a growing threat from the north.
israel and azerbaijan
Azerbaijan wants the Zangezur Corridor. The question is how do they want to get there?
The problem is that if they do that, the US/Israel could try to ensure it becomes a conflict. The temptation for Turkiye and Azerbaijan is understandable, but it could also be a trap. There is no doubt that President Putin and President Aliyev were discussing this issue during their visit to Baku in August, but so far Azerbaijan, which also has strong ties to China (more on this later), has It refuses to play its part in the West’s attempts at leadership. play.
Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have long been fraught with difficulties due to a variety of issues, but they do not necessarily lead to an endless escalation to conflict, as is often the case with countries on the trajectory of a rules-based international order. It is important to remember that it does not mean Baku and Tehran are also finding ways to cooperate, such as on the International North-South Transport Corridor, which runs through the two countries and connects Russia and India.
That said, friendly relations between Baku and Israel are becoming increasingly troubled, with each side accusing the other of espionage and terrorism. Tel Aviv from 2016 to 2020 Accounted for 69% of Azerbaijan’s major arms imports include loitering weapons, which gained notoriety in 2020. Nagorno Karabakh war.
This relationship with Israel serves as a counterweight to Iranian influence over Azerbaijan, including pressure to develop a trans-Caspian sea route through Azerbaijan. There is also the issue of Iran’s West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan provinces, which are dominated by Azerbaijanis and Kurds. Baku makes a lot of noise about national self-determination, but this is primarily a dream of American neoconservatives. They have long envisioned using Azerbaijanis living in Iran to destabilize the country. Curiously, Iran’s current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who came to power after his predecessor was killed in a helicopter crash on a repatriation flight from Azerbaijan, is an Azerbaijani national, as is Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei. be.
According to non-neoconservative accounts (although readers with Iran expertise may add more insight), Azerbaijanis in Iran are generally well integrated into Iranian society, and there are no grievances that can be exploited by outside actors. It is said that there are not many. But that rarely stops neocons, who often see conflict as the key to repressed ethnic tensions that can be unleashed in their favor.
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Unfortunately, I don’t have enough time today, so tomorrow’s second post on this topic will have to deal with US intrigues, Russian interests, and the many strange and interesting recent developments with Türkiye.
