Connor: I don’t know why this is so difficult. If Europe is unwilling or not ready to accept so many refugees, it should stop destroying nearby societies. “garden” wall. The media always seems to ignore Europe’s role in causing these crises. Seeing how the EU and/or some of its member states continue to start or support these bloody chaos (Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon), this actually brings in more exploitable refugees. It’s enough to make me wonder if this is a conscious policy. Labor. But to believe that, you would have to believe that current European officials and their supporters have such foresight.
Nevertheless, according to eurostat Non-EU nationals make up 5.1% of the public sector workforce, with an even higher proportion of ‘essential workers’. As the following article states: “Back in 2015” Over 1 million refugeesMost of them are Syrian and arrived in Germany. now contributing to the country’s workforce. Syrians and their families are also contributing to Germany’s growing domestic consumption and supporting an aging population, demonstrating how migration can be a positive tool if managed effectively. ”
The problem is that a growing number of citizens no longer believe that Europe is “effectively managed.” That argument becomes even more difficult to make when people’s living standards are declining and social programs are being cut. The political class has pivoted from defending the benefits of immigration and diversity to advocating for the abolition of Schengen. However, politicians such as Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Verbock remain bitterly at odds with Israel.
in #Lebanonpeople fear for their loved ones every day. Once again, Hezbollah terrorists irresponsibly hide behind civilians and fire rockets. #Israel every day. Israel must protect itself from these attacks. – @ABaerbock 1/4 in Beirut pic.twitter.com/D2mCke7HKn
— GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) October 23, 2024
Under such leadership, Europe is currently facing economic decline, deindustrialization, further austerity, and more refugees. Oh, and the fallout from the collapse of Project Ukraine. It could be a long winter.
The author is Bala Mikail, associate professor of international security and director of the Modern Crisis Observatory at Saint Louis University Madrid Campus and IE University. He is also the founder of Stractegia, a Madrid-based consulting firm that provides advice on geopolitics and Spanish politics in the MENA region. Cross Poster conversation.
Since it began in late September, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon has added to the misery in a Middle East already suffering a humanitarian disaster. In Lebanon, as of October 23, 2024, More than 1.2 million people have fled their homesand tens of thousands of people are now trying to flee the country.
From the European Union’s perspective, the limited number of legal migration routes and the already increasing pressure on migrants could lead to a repeat of this situation. 2015 refugee crisis.
As these migration flows grow, Europe will need to balance immediate humanitarian needs with the long-term issues of refugee resettlement and integration. However, the current political climate on the continent presents formidable obstacles to achieving this.
Lebanese refugees fleeing to Syria
After the Arab Spring reached Syria in 2011, Lebanon was home to approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees. This movement today is reversedThis is because the conflict between Israel and Lebanon has caused an influx of both Syrian refugees and Lebanese residents across the border into Syria.
As of October 21, 2024an estimated 425,000 people fled Lebanon and crossed the nearest available border into Syria. Additionally, approximately 16,700 Lebanese residents have taken refuge in Iraq.
The conflict between Israel and Lebanon is still in its early stages, and many refugees are currently going wherever they can. But they are indicative of the amount of displacement already underway. Many will eventually head to Europe, resulting in further migration pressure on the EU, similar to the 2015 refugee crisis when more than 1 million refugees entered Europe, mainly via the Mediterranean route. It will be.
It seems that Europe did not see this coming. Just a few months ago, in May of this year, the EU announced: €1 billion aid package for Lebanon To confront the immigration crisis and tackle it at its roots. This funding is unlikely to be enough to stabilize the region or prevent mass immigration.
Indeed, Lebanon has already on the verge of political collapsewe may soon be unable to coordinate meaningful migration regulations at all.
This will increase pressure on Europe in the broader context of a highly volatile Middle East. As instability in the region deepens, European countries can expect more migrants and asylum claims to arrive via countries like Greece and Italy, which are at the forefront of migration routes.
Will the EU be able to take in all Middle Eastern refugees?
From a purely material and economic point of view, countries like Germany have shown that it is possible to take in huge numbers of refugees.
Back in 2015 Over 1 million refugeesMost of them are Syrian and arrived in Germany. now contributing to the country’s workforce. Syrians and their families have also contributed to Germany’s growing domestic consumption and supported an aging population, demonstrating how migration can be a positive tool when managed effectively.
But today’s political climate is different. Support for anti-immigration parties soars Created Increasing social divisions surrounding refugee acceptance. Public opinion has shifted towards Demands stricter border controls and reduced immigration intake.
This continuing trend is European Parliament elections 2024when conservative and far-right parties gained a significant political base.
The EU’s indecisive response to the crisis is reflected in the weakness of its policy efforts, including its recent commitment to: resettle 31,000 refugees in 2024 and 2025. This is a drop in the ocean – currently home to more than 16 million refugees and displaced persons. waiting for resettlement In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
Whether the EU can accept all refugees from Lebanon and other Middle East conflicts is therefore a complex question. Although economically viable on paper, definitely beneficial In the long term, such a move seems politically out of reach. Rather, the EU’s approach to this ongoing crisis will be determined by its unity (or lack thereof) around common policies.
Future EU immigration policy
The success story of Germany’s Syrian refugees highlights the long-term potential of migration to strengthen the EU economy. However, as Germany itself has recently shown, political divisions make such policies politically problematic. Restored control of all land borders Part of efforts to strengthen immigration controls.
The new EU was established Immigration and asylum agreements Suggest measures such as transfers, financial or operational support to Member States. This approach aims to meet humanitarian needs, but also allows member states to protect their sovereignty and control.
But it also calls into question the coherence of the EU’s own values. In the Council’s own words, by “supporting the development of reception centres”, the EU can enable coercive and sometimes coercive action. sending illegal immigrants To non-EU countries.
Such measures also raise the bar on what immigration can bring to a continent facing demographic headwinds: immigrants fill gaps in the labor market, foster a culture of innovation, and support an aging population. We are overlooking whether we can provide a tax base for young people.
But to produce such an outcome, the newly appointed commission will need to not only overcome political opposition, but also ensure that the policies it adopts realistically allow for adequate integration. .
How can the EU better manage migration?
Several important policy measures will help Europe address the looming migration crisis.
Expanding legal migration channels, including resettlement programmes, humanitarian visas and flexible work permits for Lebanese nationals, will be key to easing migration pressures. Furthermore, improving the refugee situation by increasing financial and logistical assistance to Lebanon and its neighboring countries could help slow the flow of migrants to Europe.
Increasing coordination between EU countries may seem difficult today, but it is also necessary to strike an efficient balance between respect for humanitarian principles and border management.
Finally, while integration programs need to draw on successful models such as Germany’s experience with Syrian refugees, the EU also needs to address the root causes of instability through diplomatic and development efforts. Specifically, this means taking a strong diplomatic stance towards Israel, and more generally overcoming the EU’s long-standing weakness and indecision in dealing with its neighbors in the MENA region. do.
To quote a 2010 paper, the EU has long beenPayers, not players”.However, if this situation were to change, the EU could potentially prevent millions of people from becoming refugees in the first place.
