Yesterday, I learned from Condi Rice that my longtime Hoover Institution colleague and longtime friend, Tom Moore, had passed away. He passed away on August 23rd. He passed away at the age of 93.
Tom was an excellent economist. He wrote an article titled “.Deregulation of trucking” in Fortune Encyclopedia of EconomicsIn 1993, after the rights returned to me. A concise encyclopedia of economics. And when we summarize the second edition, A concise encyclopedia of economicsTom wrote an update titled “.Deregulation of land transportation”
Tom was one of the early advocates of deregulation. At President Ford’s forum on inflation in 1974, Tom circulated a statement calling for deregulation of transportation, aviation, energy, and many other sectors. (I’m relying on memory here; the copy he gave me was destroyed in an office fire in 2007.) As I recall, he was a member of the majority of economists (not just Republicans but also many Democrats). group) to sign a statement.
Tom also wrote the following article for the second edition of the Concise Encyclopedia.Global warming: balance sheet” I re-read his writing as a background for this post. It is reassuring that some of his analyzes still hold up well almost 20 years after he wrote them.
An excerpt is shown below.
The media and many others are predicting that every conceivable weather event will lead to global warming, from more to less climate change, from more rainfall to more droughts, and from more severe winter storms to fewer and weaker cold waves. I think this is due to the But when we examine its possible effects, there is little basis for that bleak view. According to the IPCC, global warming will make winters warmer than summers, increase precipitation, and cause higher temperature increases in latitudes above the equator, areas that are already cold.
How does climate affect the economy? Climate primarily affects agriculture, forestry, and fishing. For the United States, these three total less than 2% of GDP. Manufacturing, most service industries, and nearly all extractive industries are immune to the direct effects of climate change. Factories can be built virtually anywhere, including northern Sweden, Canada, Texas, Central America, and Mexico. banking, insurancemedical services, retail, educationand various other services are just as successful in warm climates (with air conditioning) as in cold ones (central heating). As the climate warms, transportation costs fall. Less snow and ice will hurt truckers and car drivers. Fewer winter storms will disrupt air travel. Bad summer weather is less destructive and passes quickly. Lower storm rates and less fog mean less risk for transportation. Warmer temperatures have little impact on mining and extractive industries. Oil drilling in the North Sea and mining in the mountains could also benefit.
Some services, such as tourism, may be sensitive to weather conditions. As the climate warms, the nature and location of tourism is likely to change as well. For example, many ski resorts will definitely experience colder weather and potentially shorter seasons. As the weather warms, fewer northerners may feel the need to vacation in Florida or the Caribbean. At the same time, new tourism opportunities may emerge in Alaska, northern Canada, and other high-latitude or high-altitude regions. Shorter winters benefit most outdoor recreation, including golf, hiking, tennis, and picnics.
In many parts of the world, a warmer climate should lengthen the growing season. If the world warms, a warmer climate will increase evaporation from the oceans and likely increase precipitation around the world. Additionally, atmospheric enrichment with CO2Fertilize your plants and encourage more vigorous growth. The IPCC’s Global Warming Assessment states that “projected warming of several degrees will lead to general increases in yields of temperate crops, albeit with some regional differences” (IPCC 2001, p. 32). Björn Lomborg, a Danish environmental activist and statistician, estimates that if farmers adapt appropriately, a warming climate could increase grain production by 4 to 14 percent in rich countries, but by 6 to 7 percent in poorer countries. (2001, p. 288). In a thoughtful report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reviewed the possible effects of global warming and concluded that the overall impact on global food production would be slightly positive, and therefore agricultural prices would likely fall. (Kane et al. 1991).
Global warming could cause glaciers to melt, causing sea levels to rise and flooding low-lying areas, including many islands and deltas. The IPCC’s upper estimate for sea level rise by 2100 is 3 feet. Starting from this 3-foot assumption, economists such as William Klein, William Nordhaus, and Richard Morgenstern have estimated the cost of building levees and levees and land loss in the United States to be between $7 and $10.6 billion per year. , which is estimated to be approximately 100 million dollars. Percentage of America’s GDP. In some small, low-lying island countries, the problem will be even worse. In some cases, it may be completely submerged.
The entire work is well worth reading, as are his two works on traffic deregulation.
Today or tomorrow, depending on time constraints, I’ll be sharing how I came across Tom’s work in 1972 on Substack. I’ll post the link here.
