by calculated risk 11/01/2024 09:07:00 AM
The number of major employees in the October employment report was lower than expected, and the number of employees for August and September was revised downward by a combined 112,000 people. The employment rate and employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Retail companies typically start hiring in October for the holiday season and really ramp up hiring in November. Below is a graph showing the number of past online retail jobs added in October, November, and December by year.
This graph actually shows the collapse in retail employment in 2008. Since then, seasonal employment has increased and is approaching more normal levels. Note: We expect the long-term trend to be downward as more and more holiday shopping is done online.
Retailers hired 125,000 workers on a net seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis in October. This is lower than last year and suggests that real retail sales this holiday season will be slightly lower than last year.
This is seasonally adjusted (SA), with retail employment down 6.4 thousand in October.
Prime (25-54 years old) participation
Since overall participation rates are affected by both business cycles (recessions) and demographic trends (aging population, young people attending school), we show here the proportion of employed people in the main working age group, 25-54 years old. Masu.
The participation rate among people aged 25 to 54 was 83.5% in October, down from 83.8% in September.
The employment population ratio for people aged 25 to 54 was 80.6%, down from 80.9% the previous month.
average hourly wage
The graph shows the nominal year-on-year change in the “average hourly wage” for all private sector employees based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
The wage growth rate has been on a downward trend since peaking at 5.9% year-on-year in March 2022, and was 4.0% year-on-year in October.
From BLS report:
”The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons was little changed in October at 4.6 million. These people wanted full-time employment but worked part-time because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time work.”
The number of people working part-time for economic reasons fell from 4.62 million in September to 4.56 million in October. This is above pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are alternative measures The labor underutilization rate (U-6) was 7.7%, unchanged from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the all-time high of 23.0% in April 2020, and up from the all-time low (seasonally adjusted) of December 2022 (6.5%). (This series began in 1994). This figure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks
This graph shows the number of workers who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks.
The number of workers who have been unemployed for 26 weeks or more and still want a job is 1.61 million, unchanged from 1.63 million last month, according to the BLS.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
continuous job
Employment statistics show 46 consecutive months of positive employment through October 2024, making this streak tied for third place for the longest employment streak in U.S. history (since 1939). This streak is likely to persist even after the annual benchmark revision, in which employment growth is revised downward.
| Ranked in the top 10 in a row for popular job openings | ||
|---|---|---|
| year ended | Consecutive number, number of months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 Thailand | 2007 | 46 |
| 3 Thailand | 20241 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 Thailand | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 Thailand | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 Thailand | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | twenty five |
| 1current streak | ||
summary:
The number of major employees in the October employment report was lower than expected, and the number of employees for August and September was revised downward by a combined 112,000 people. The employment rate and employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
This report was influenced by strikes (particularly at Boeing) and hurricanes. This makes this report difficult to interpret.
