by calculated risk November 13, 2024 08:52:00 AM
The indicators of inflation are:
The first graph is what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was referring to when shelter services, net of rent, rose about 8% year over year. Although this has decreased, it is still rising and is now up 4.5% year over year.
Click on the graph to see a larger image.
This graph shows the year-on-year change in prices for services and shelter rents up to September 2024.
Services (excluding shelter rent) increased 4.5% year over year in October, up from 4.4% year over year in September.
The second graph shows that commodity prices started rising year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021, due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.
Commodities excluding food and energy products were -1.2% y/y in October, unchanged from -1.2% y/y in September.
This is a graph of year-over-year change in shelters in the CPI report (through October) and housing in the PCE report (through September).
Shelter sales rose 4.9% in October compared to the same month last year.up from 4.8% in September. Housing (PCE) rose 5.1% year-on-year in September, down from 5.3% in August.
“Shelter-related indexes rose 0.4% in October, accounting for more than half of the total monthly increase,” the BLS noted this morning.
This has not yet caught up with personal data.
Core CPI (excluding shelters) increased by 2.0% year-on-year in October.
